A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY PU B-5297 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Economic Report 077-01 0036 Chokel BotolGi r H FU--001 A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Economic Report The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Copyright (D) 1985 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing October 1985 World Bank Country Studies are reports originally prepared for intemal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and of its dialogues with the governments. Some of the reports are published informally with the least possible delay for the use of govem- ments and the academic, business and financial, and development communities. Thus, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufacture and distribution. The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or is affiliates conceming the legal status of any country, territory, city, area, or of its authorities, or conceming the delimitation of its boundaries or national affiliation. The most recent World Bank publications are described in the annual spring and fall lists; the continuing research program is described in the annual Abstracts of Current Studies. The latest edition of each is available free of charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Department T, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from the European Office of the Bank, 66 avenue d'1ena, 75116 Paris, France. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Main entry under title: Antigua and Barbuda. (World Bank country study) 1. Antigua and Barbuda--Economic conditions. 2. Antigua and Barbuda--Economic policy. I. Inter- national Bank for Reconstruction and Development. II. Series. HC155.5.Z7A5734 1985 330.97297'4 85-20356 ISBN 0-8213-0628-6 Preface and Abstract This report is based upon the work of an IBRD mission to Antigua and Barbuda in July 1984. The mission consisted of Ms. T. Jones (Chief of Mission) and Mr. R. J. Robinson. Ms. B. Buyck (IARM) provided assistance to the mission on the public sector investment program. The Statistical Annex is largely based upon the work of the International Monetary Fund. The report was discussed with the Government in December 1984. Over the past three years, the economy of Antigua and Barbuda has experienced a slackening of economic growth. This slowdown is a result of international economic recession and the trade difficulties within the Caricom regional market. Future growth prospects appear sound however, particularly for the tourism sector which achieved record visitor arrivals in the 1983-84 high season. Much of the future growth of the economy will depend, however, upon a reorientation of the manufacturing sector toward extra-regional export markets and restraint in public sector current expenditures. The public sector has been experiencing increasing fiscal difficulties as growth in current expenditures has outpaced growth in current revenues. This has caused a buildup of arrears, especially for external obligations which could prejudice future access to external credit. Furthermore, public sector capital expenditures have declined, which has affected rehabilitation and enhancement of the country's economic and social infrastructure. A variety of issues will need to be addressed, to ensure that the foundations for future economic growth are in place. These issues are listed below. - Immediate progress is necessary to curtail the growth of public sector current expenditures, particularly in order to ensure that adequate funds are available to meet debt service obligations. - Alternative revenue raising measures are necessary together with an effective tax policy and general improvement in the tax administration. - Employment generation constitutes the main development challenge. - The tourism sector will remain the country's leading sector for many years. Government needs to expand the promotion resources available to the Tourist Board; to continue with plans for a hotel training school and to establish an airport maintenance fund. - Efforts should be made to expand the representation of the Industrial Development Board and allocate the resources necessary to enable the Board to play a major role in the attraction of new manufacturing investment. - Within the agricultural sector, efforts must be made to encourage fruit, vegetable and livestock production. An early review of the viability of the sugar industry should be made, together with a review of the Central Marketing Corporation's pricing policies. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit East Caribbean Dollar Since its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterling at the rate of 1.00 = EC$4.8. In July 1976 the link with sterling was broken and the East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at the rate of US$1.00 = EC$2.70. Since July 1976 EC$1.00 = US$0.370 or US$1.00 EC$2.700 Page I of 2 pages COUNTRY DATA - ANTIGUA AND SMEIA AREA PortLATION DENSITY 42 kM2 76,241 told-1033 est.) 175 per lm2 Rato of Growth# 1.3 (frm 1973 to 1SC3) 2C6 per km2 of eroble land POPULATIOI CHARACTERISTICS (11962) HEALTH I1S76) Crede Birth Rate (per 1,000) 14.S Pepultleei per physiclan 2,746 Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) S.5 Popeletie per hespital bhd 137 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 11" births) 31.S INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWERSNIP S of ntloal Ince_, highest quintilo . ownd by top 103 of owners lowst quintile .. S owned by smllest 105 of oweers ACCESS TO SAWE WATER (1170) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY I ot populatlon - urban 33.2 * of popiatlon - urban) - rxral 14.0 - rurail NUTRITION (1177) EDUCATION Calorie stake as 2 of requlroaeto 66.1 Adult literacy rate S 90.0 (170) Por capita protein Intake (grom/day) 56.3 Primry school enroll_mnt T S0.0 (1977) GKP PER CAPITA In 1I63 a2s US41,730 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1183 ANNUAL RATE OF CROVTI4 (I. constant pricaa) US Kin. 5 175-62 1963 GNP at Karket Prices 130.0 100.0 5.2 1.1 greos Dometic ln|eot_t 37.7 29.0 -.3 -42.1 Orses Natlooel Savleg 16.1 13.2 -.3 15.1 Curroat Account balance -19.6 -15.1 Exports of Goods, NFS 54.9 65.3 6.7 7.4 Imports of goods. NFS 104.5 60.4 11.0 -26.5 OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT IN 1962 Voleo Added Labor Force (1961) USP min. 3 Thev"nd 3 AgrIculture 7.2 6.7 2.1 9.0 leduotry 20.0 16.3 4.7 20.2 Servics 60.6 74.6 16.4 70.6 Total 106.1 100.0 23.2 100.0 GOVERNMENT FINANE Consolidated Public S3*tor Central overammnt (EC4 KIni.) of Gap (EC$ N1I.) S of gop 1962 1163 1962 1963 1962 1963 1162 1963 Corront Rocelpta 103.6 96.5 30.0 27.3 92.9 87.6 2#.1 24.8 Current Expendlture 101.7 110.0 31.7 31.1 112.1 110.1 32.4 31.1 Currost Surplue (Daficit) (6.11(13.5) -1.8 -3.6 (19.2) (22.3) -5.6 -6.3 Capital Expenditeres 44.7 20.2 12.9 5.7 40.6 14.0 11.7 4.0 Extereel orreowleg (net) 21.4 7.0 6.2 2.0 16.4 -4.1 4.7 -1.2 8/ EstImtod selrg the Werld lack Atia methodology and adjusted excasboI rates (cecordleg to the US and Antigen reletl " rates of lnflatieu). Thls filgrs Is sebJ*st to pessible further adJetmmt4 based on x ferthcoming review of the oMre of greos downstic preduot Imputed to foreigners. .not evallhble net opIfbIe Page 2 of 2 pages COUNTRY OATA - AIITIGUA AND 6ARWDA 1963 CREDIT AND PRICES 1979 1960 1981 1982 Est. Seak Credit to Publit Setotr (ECS mIlioen) 34.3 34.1 34.4 4S.S 49.5 Bank Credit to Privte Sector (ECt millon) 66.0 102.7 133.7 146.I 179.5 General Price Index (1969 * 100) 339.0 400.4 42S5 436.6 452.3 Annual percentage changes Ins Oeeral Price Index 16.2 19.2 11.5 4.6 2.7 Beak credit to Public Sector -3.9 -0.6 0.6 32.3 6.6 Bonk credit to Private Sector 3.6 19.4 30.2 11.3 20.8 BALMCE OF PAYMENTS IMERCIAOISE EXPORTS (1163) A 1973 1960 I1NI 1982 1983 US$ Kim. X (US$ mililon) Exports of Goode, NFS 50.7 72.9 65.0 62.9 64.9 Manufeatured Goods 10.4 72.2 Import& of Goods, IFS 76.3 106.2 139.1 143.0 104.5 Machinery & Transport Reecurce Cap (deficit * -) -25.6 -35.3 -54.1 -60.7 -19.6 Equipmet 1.4 9.7 Beverages & Tobacco 0.5 3.5 Net Treansers 8.2 9.0 9J 1.2 12.0 All other comoditlee 2.1 14.6 Balaene o Current Account -17.4 -26.3 -44.3 -48.9 -7.6 Total 14.4 100.0 Private Capltai Inflew (In- EXTERNAL DEBT, DECE4BER 31, 1983 bl eluding werr o emisslons) 4.6 19.1 25.4 35.5 7.2 US* IHn. Not Pubilc Capital Inflow 10.6 7.0 17.6 7.1 3.1 Rest of the Financial Syetm_ I. -0.6 0J 6.7 -2.7 Pubilic Debt. Inel. guaranteed 53.0 Overail Baeises 0.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 Non-Ouaranteed Private Debt Total Outstanding 4 Disbursed DEBT SERVICE RATIO FOR 1963 c1 Public Debt, Ilci. guaranteed 23.9 Non-guarenteed Privete Debt Total Outstanding A Dlsbursed RATE Of EXCHANeE IBRDJIOA LENDiNG, DECEMBER 1963 IB_D IDA Sines My 1976 Outstanding * Disbursed UM 1.00 * EC$ 2.70 Undisburaed ECS 1.00 * USS 0.37 Outstendlag Inol. Undlsbursed a/ Exlaude. reexperts. Mi' Net f offetting deposits. tf Ratio of Debt Service to Domnsti Exports and Non-Fector Services. not avaliable net eppileabib ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ix I. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND GROWTH PROSPECTS.............. 1 Growth ...............1 ....4...*.00 Investment ......O. ........ .... ... 1 Savings ....... .......... .... ...2 Money and Credit 2c..... .2 Prices, Wages and Employment ...................... 3 Balance of Payments .......*...... 4 Medium- and Long-term Prospects . ..... ................ 5 II. THE PUBLIC SECTOR .........R.R.............................9 Overview bt..... ... ..... o-o-o.-.o.-. . 39 Expenditure ........ ....... 00-... O..................0.0........... 10 Revenues *.............................._........o .......... ......o 11 External Debt ........ ..... -..oo... -... .............................. 13 III. DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES ........................... .. . . .... . 15 Future Challenges and Directions .... .......... ....... 15 Agriculture *...................... oo..R............ 15 Manufacturing .oo...... ooot ...... o-oR.......o...c......c.......c..cc.. 20 Tourism ........ ......... ..................................... 24 Infrastructure ........................................... 27 IV. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM ................. ............. 30 - 34 ANNEX 1: GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LISTS ....... 35 - 41 ANNEX 2: MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS ................................. 42 - 46 STATISTICAL APPENDIX MAP SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Economic Performance and Prospects. i. Over the past three years, the economy of Antigua and Barbuda has experienced a continual slackening in economic growth. In the first instance, recession in the more industrialized countries caused tourism, the country's leading sector, to decline in 1981 and 1982. And, in the second instance, trade difficulties within CAIICOM have reduced market opportunities for the local manufacturing sector. To add to these difficulties, the country experienced a severe drought that reduced agricultural output substantially in 1984. ii. Future growth prospects are dependent upon a number of factors. Continued international economic recovery should underpin steady growth in tourist arrivals, and early indications for the winter 1985 season are good. The manufacturing sector however, needs to be reoriented toward non-CARICOM export markets and the agricultural sector requires restructuring in order that it may provide an increasing quantity of domestic food requirements. The most important factor in this economic transformation however is the need for restraint in public sector current expenditures and an overall improvement in public sector finances. The Central Government has experienced continually expanding current account deficits since 1979 as growth in current expenditures has outpaced growth in current revenues. This deficit reached 3.8% of GDP in 1983 as compared to 1.8% in 1982. As a result of these unfavorable fiscal developments, there has been a marked buildup of arrears in payments, especially for external obligations, which could prejudice future access to external credit. Gross external debt has risen from 48.5% of GDP in 1979 to 61.3% in 1983, with a concommitant rise in debt service requirements. Furthermore, the public sector has experienced increasing difficulty in financing needed capital expenditures on rehabilitation and enhancement of the country's economic and social infrastructure. Capital expenditures in the public sector investment program totalled EC$20.2 million in 1983, equivalent to 5.7% of GDP, and less than half the previous year expenditures, which in turn had shown a decline compared to the 1981 level. A program of fiscal austerity must be introduced over the next three years to ensure a restoration of creditworthiness. In late 1984, the Government of Antigua and Barbuda did reduce its gross external debt by using offsetting deposits to retire debt with two banks. iii. The current account balance of the balance of payments improved substantially as a result of the absence of any major investment projects and a large decline in oil imports following the closure of the oil refinery. This, together with a 25% increase in tourist revenues, narrowed the current account balance to 5.8% of GDP (38% in 1982). The economic difficulties in Antigua and Barbuda's traditional export markets, together with the drought, will reduce export growth in 1984 and 1985, and increase imports, particularly foodstuffs, in the same period. Nevertheless, with steadily increasing contributions from the tourism sector, and a reorientation of manufacturing toward non-traditional export markets, the - i.x a country's resource balance should improve steadily in real terms from 1985. Since late 1980, there has been a steady improvement in Antigua's terms of trade, at an annual average rate of 4.5% , as a result of moderation in import prices and increasing prices of tourism services. Over the next three years, little change in the country's terms of trade is expected. The rate of inflation moderated in 1983, with an average period rate of increase of 2.3%. The drought, together with higher utility prices, could cause consumer price rises to be somewhat higher in 1984. Selected Development Policy Issues. iv. Within Antigua and Barbuda, accurate employment figures are unavailable; however, it is estimated that the unemployment rate has fluctuated around 20% during the period 1978 to 1982. This rate may have increased somewhat, together with increased underemployment, in the latter part of 1983 and early 1984, as a result of layoffs in manufacturing and the drought induced decline in agricultural output. In common with many other developing environments, Antigua and Barbuda has experienced an increasing imbalance between the country's growth in productive manpower absorption and the skills availability and work aspirations of the more youthful working population. To overcome this imbalance requires increased capital investment in productive undertakings in those sectors or subsectors in which Antigua and Barbuda has a real comparative advantage, together with a Government development policy that is consistent with this sectoral emphasis. v. Tourism is the country's leading economic sector, and will remain so for many years. In consequence, this sector should constitute an important source of employment generation. In the past, the Government has sought financing to develop a number of resort developments, which, if completed, would substantially boost the country's accommodation capacity. These efforts however, should not detract from the search for potential direct private investments in the sector, and the Government needs to ensure that an environment conducive to this flow is maintained. Steady improvements in the country's water supply system will remove a major source of uncertainty. The Government's Department of Tourism lacks the staff and resources to undertake adequate promotional activity. A greater allocation of financial resources to this critical function is necessary. In general, facilities at the airport are adequate. The Government has agreed, in principle, to the establishment of a special fund to ensure that there are adequate financial resources for airport maintenance, and this should be established as soon as possible. There is a need for vocational training for the sector, and the Government has sought to establish a hotel training school. This is a sound policy objective which warrants support. vi. Difficulties within the CARICOM market and the lack of viable import substitution possibilities emphasize the importance of enclave-type manufacturing catering to the extra-regional markets as the future source of growth. The Government's future manufacturing policy therefore should concentrate on the promotion and attraction of those operations which have a real potential for extra-regional exports. The recently reactivated Industrial Development Board is a positive step in this direction, however, the present composition of this Board may not be sufficiently comprehensive to ensure that the Board can function as a one stop access to Government with respect to new ventures. Furthermore, the Government needs to allocate the resources necessary to increase its capacity to promote Antigua and Barbuda as an enclave manufacturing location. vii. As the Government has sought to do for the tourism sector with respect to enhancement of vocational training, it should also do for the manufacturing sector. The increasing technological sophistication of future potential manufacturing in the country implies that overall skill levels need upgrading. This could be accomplished by the expansion of existing formal training programs, however a more immediate impact upon available industrial skills can be achieved by enhanced apprenticeship and in-plant training activities. viii. While agriculture can make a significant contribution to the economic development of Antigua and Barbuda, the sector's ability to generate substantial employment opportunities in the near to medium term is doubtful. The trend in the pattern of production has been away from plantation crops, such as cotton and sugar, toward a more diversified system of fruits and vegetables. This transition is sensible given the marketing and agro-technical realities facing the country, and should be encouraged by the Government. Selective improvements in the bottlenecks constraining the mobilization of agricultural resources should have a greater impact on the sector's viability than endeavors to undertake large-scale production and development schemes. Considerable potential exists for enhancement of fruit and vegetable production, particularly with respect to the supply of the tourist sector. The same potential exists for the livestock sub-sector, however this will require modernization of rearing practices, scientific pasture control and rotation, and revision of the Government's price control policy with respect to retail sales of meat products. Sugarcane production, which resumed in 1979, has encountered serious problems. The financial viability of Antigua Sugar Industry Corporation is not assured. Liabilities exceed the value of realizable assets by a wide margin, and the project is unlikely to reach the estimated break-even production of between 2,000 to 2,500 tons of milled sugar in the near future. Government resources expended to cover this industry's losses could more profitably be utilized in other areas of agriculture. ix. The Government has taken some important steps to clarify the land tenure system and to streamline lease procedures. This includes a phase out of tenancies and should do much to stimulate agricultural production. Further administrative changes are necessary to streamline procedures however. Certain progress has been made in improvement of the agricultural water supply situation which includes pond clearing and small dam construction. However, further efforts must be made to consolidate present irrigation programs and encourage the use of "dry farming" techniques. Progress has been made in improving the efficiency of the Central Marketing Corporation. Plans are afoot to expand operations via a closer coordination of production and marketing; by expansion of the available volume of refrigerated storage and by increasing efforts in extra-regional export markets. If operational surpluses are to be achieved however, consideration must be given to a revision of the Corporation's pricing structure. x. While infrastructure development in Antigua and Barbuda is quite advanced, attention must be directed toward maintenance and rehabilitation. The Public Works Department recognizes this priority with respect to the road network, however it is constrained by an extreme shortage of equipment. Much of this could be remedied by rehabilitation of existing equipment that is out of service as a result of a lack of spares or technical personnel to carry out the work. Telephone services have steadily improved, but there is still a long waiting list of potential users and further finance will be needed for an expansion of the system. Installed electricity generation capacity is adequate for the near future and reliability has improved substantially in 1984. Transmission losses remain a problem however, and a program to reduce these losses is underway. Undoubtedly, the infrastructure most in need of rehabilitation and development is the water supply system. The drought graphically demonstrated the fragility of the system and there is need for a comprehensive national water policy that will address the general deterioration of collection, storage and distribution systems. xi. The Government's ability to finance the needed expenditure on the country's infrastructure or to promote growth in the productive sectors in other ways will be constrained severely until the creditworthiness of the country is restored. As already stated, this will require: (1) immediate implementation of a fiscal austerity program, emphasizing expenditure reductions, to ensure that funds are available to meet future debt obligations; and (2) an agreement with creditors on a rescheduling of arrears. In addition, the Government should refrain from new foreign borrowing on commercial terms and should set up an effective system to control external debt operations. Continued postponement by the Government of the necessary actions will almost certainly have adverse consequences for the future economic development of the country. 1. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND GROWTH PROSPECTS Growth 1. The economy of Antigua and Barbuda has experienced a continual slackening in economic growth since 1980. Between 1976 and 1980, real growth in gross domestic product (GDP) averaged 8% per annum. In 1983 the rate of growth recorded was 1.1%. This slowing of economic activity is a result primarily of international events, both within and without, the Caribbean region. Economic recession in more industrialized countries brought about a reduction in stay-over tourist visitors and economic difficulties within CARICOM reduced market opportunities for the local manufacturing sector. In 1983, tourism improved, especially with respect to visitors from the United States; however, trade impediments within CARICOM have continued to worsen creating severe problems for the majority of the manufacturing sector in the country. Agriculture's contribution to GDP has declined from 11% in 1978 to 7.5% in 1983, reflecting in part the gradual structural adjustment of the pattern of agriculture away from plantation-type crops (cotton and sugar) to a multiple cropping system where production of fruits and vegetables has become more important. Table 1: GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR (Annual Percentage Change) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 GDP at Factor Cost 6.6 7.8 4.0 2.7 1.1 Agriculture -20.6 - -10.8 7.3 12.8 Manufacturing 15.7 18.8 21.9 - -15.1 Construction 10.5 12.9 9.9 -0.7 -2.1 Transport and Communications 16.7 11.0 8.3 3.7 4.5 Hotels and Restaurants 15.8 7.0 - -0.8 10.9 Source: Statistical Annex, Table 2.1. Investment 2. Investment grew rapidly in 1981 as a result of extension construction in the tourist sector, construction of the airport terminal and the refurbishment of the oil refinery. This growth slowed somewhat in 1982, but still remained above 50% of GDP as a result of a large buildup in oil stocks by the West Indies Oil Company. Investment in 1983, however, declined rapidly as a result of a reduction in both government and private capital expenditures. In the first instance, this reflects the worsening fiscal performance of the public sector and the Government's increasing difficulty in obtaining external funds from both official and commercial sources. In the second instance, domestic liquidity tightened in 1983 and early 1984, raising lending rates substantially and undoubtedly caused some postponement of investment activity by the private sector. Little increase in government capital expenditure is to be expected in 1984; however, private sector investment should increase with continued expansion in the tourist sector. -2- Table 2: SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (As percent of gross domestic investment) Gross Domestic Investment 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Public Sector 41.1 20.7 29.7 20.4 19.9 Private Sector 58.9 79.3 70.3 79.6 80.1 Gross National Savings 44.1 48.6 37.9 22.3 44.5 Public Sector 1.3 1.1 3.4 -3.4 -13.3 Private Sector 39.8 47.5 34.5 25.7 57.8 Foreign Savings 58.9 51.4 62.1 77.7 55.5 (As percent of GDP) Gross Domestic Investment 37.8 41.2 53.1 50.8 28.8 Public Sector 13.7 8.6 15,8 10.3 5.7 Private Sector 24.1 32.6 37.3 40.5 23.1 Gross National Savings 15.5 20.0 20.2 11.3 12.8 Public Sector 0.5 0.4 1.8 -1.7 -3.8 Private Sector 15.0 19.6 18.4 13.0 16.6 Foreign Savings 22.2 21.2 33.0 39.5 16.0 Source: Statistical Annex, Table 2.3. Savings 3. Over the past five years, foreign savings have financed approximately 60% of total investment, and national savings, the remainder. A large proportion of these foreign savings reflect private capital inflows related to the tourism and energy sectors and borrowings on commercial terms. Public sector savings, however, have contributed a declining share in the last two years and indications are that this trend will continue throughout 1984. Money and Credit 4. During the period 1980-82, net domestic credit increased by 52.3% as a result of an EC$8.1 million increase in net lending to Central Government and an EC$46.1 million increase to the private sector. The increase to the public sector reflects the deterioration in public finances and that to the private sector loans for the purchase of consumer durables and construction. This credit expansion continued in 1983 with a 17.1% increase in lending to the Central Government and a 20.9% increase to the private sector. 5. Initially, the growth in private sector deposits did not keep pace with this credit expansion, causing the commercial banks to borrow from their branches throughout the ECCA region. The liquidity crisis in -3- the latter part of 1983 caused the banks to raise deposit rates to become more competitive with international rates and positive in real terms. This change in interest rates brought about the desired result, as in 1983, private sector deposits increased substantially by 26.6%. This increase, together with a falloff in credit demand in early 1984, has eased the domestic liquidity situation causing interest rates to moderate somewhat by June 1984. Prices, Wages and Employment 6. The openness of the Antigua and Barbuda economy causes the country to follow closely international price trends. As a result, the rate of inflation has moderated considerably in 1983 with an average period rate of increase of 2.3%. This deceleration in the rate of price increases is a result of moderation in import prices, no change in utility and transportation costs and increasing production of local foodstuffs in 1982 and 1983. The drought, however, has begun to have a noticeable effect upon food prices, and this, together with higher utility prices (especially water), should cause consumer price rises to be somewhat higher in 1984. 7. Wage contracts in Antigua and Barbuda are generally for a three-year period. Since early 1982, wage increases granted up to the end of 1983, have tended to be excessive given the declining trend in price inflation. In November 1981, the Central Government granted an average one-time increase of 25% to permanent employees and 15% to temporary workers. In November 1983, the Antigua Public Utilities Authority granted wage increases of 38%, with 20% payable in 1984, and the remainder in 1985-86. Within the private sector, wage agreements in the first part of 1983 averaged 20% for the first year and 10% in the subsequent two years. Since then, wage settlements have moderated somewhat in the range of 9 to 13.5%. Table 3: SELECTED PRICE INDICATORS (Percentage change from preceding year) Average 1981 1982 1983 1978-80 GDP deflator 10.1 8.5 5.0 1.4 Consumer prices (average) 13.9 11.5 4.6 2.3 Export prices 10.9 14.7 6.1 10.6 Import prices 15.4 10.4 0.5 1.8 Terms of trade -3.7 4.0 5.1 9.2 Sources: Statistical Annex Tables 2.3, 3.6 and 8.1 and IMF staff estimates. 8. Within Antigua and Barbuda, accurate employment figures are unavailable; however, the unemployment rate reputedly has fluctuated around 20% during 1978 to 1982. This rate may have increased somewhat, together with increased underemployment, in the latter part of 1983 and early 1984, as a result of layoffs in manufacturing and the drought induced decline in agricultural output. It is important to note however that labor shortages exist in certain sectors of the economy, in the sugarcane industry for - 4 - example, and with respect to certain classifications of technical and administrative skills. Government employment accounts for about 30% of the total employed workforce. Within the civil service, the number of permanent workers has remained fairly constant over the past three years at approximately 2,700; however, temporary (nonestablished) employees, which accounted for over 55% of the total government wage bill in 1982, have risen rapidly (+11.5%) over the same period. At the present time, it is unclear whether this trend is continuing. Balance of Payments Table 4: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (US$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Exports of goods & NFS 50.7 72.9 84.6 82.4 84.4 Imports of goods & NFS 74.5 105.5 136.5 138.6 101.1 Resource Balance -23.8 -32.6 -51.9 -56.2 -16.7 Transfers 8.2 9.0 9.8 11.2 12.0 Net factor income -1.8 -2.7 -2.2 -3.9 -2.9 Current Account Balance -17.4 -26.3 -44.3 -48.9 -7.6 Public capital 10.8 7.0 17.8 7.1 2.6 Banking system 1.9 -0.6 0.8 6.7 -2.7 Private investment & errors and omissions 4.6 19.1 25.4 35.1 7.2 Memo Item % Resource Balance/GDP 29.5 33.9 45.8 47.4 15.0 Current Account Balance/GDP 20.1 25.3 37.5 38.6 5.8 Source: Statistical Annex Table 3.1. 9. The merchandise trade deficit of Antigua and Barbuda widened from 72% of GDP in 1979 to 82% of GDP in 1982, as a result of major increases in the importation of investment goods for the oil refinery and other externally financed projects. These trade deficits have been offset to some extent by increasing tourism revenues (a 24% increase over the same period); however, the current account deficit widened from 20.1% of GDP in 1979 to 38.6% in 1982. The current account balance improved dramatically in 1983 largely as a result of the absence of any major investment projects and a major decline in oil imports following the closure of the oil refinery. This, together with a 25% increase in tourist revenues, narrowed the current account balance to 5.8% of GDP. 10. Total domestic exports declined by 27% in 1983; however, this represents an aberration reflecting the US$6 million decline in fuel exports. If this is excluded, domestic exports increased by 8.1% primarily as a result of increased exports of mattresses, garments and electronic goods. Three quarters of these exports are to CARICOM countries (predominantly Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica) and given the increasing trade difficulties to this region, it is likely that domestic export performance will not be as strong in 1984. 11. Almost two-thirds of Antigua and Barbuda's merchandise imports originate from the United Kingdom or the United States. These imports grew dramatically from 1979 to 1982 (+88%), as a result of purchases of machinery and capital goods for foreign financed projects and crude oil shipments for the refinery. As large oil stocks had been accumulated by the end of 1982, the refinery's closure in 1983 resulted in a large decline in petroleum imports. Since late 1980, there has been a steady improvement in Antigua's terms of trade at an annual average rate of 4-1/2%, as a result of moderation in import prices and increasing prices for tourism services. Both the nominal and real effective exchange rates have appreciated in a similar pattern over the same period. As a result of these developments, tourist visitors from Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, have found Antigua and Barbuda an increasingly costly holiday destination. This has been reflected in a declining share of total visitors arriving from Europe. 12. Net capital inflows rose from US$17 million in 1979 to US$49 million in 1982 as a result of the aforementioned private investments and Government borrowings for development of the Deep bay Hotel project. As a result of project completions, suspension of the Deep Bay project due to external financing difficulties and sharply rising amortization obligations, net capital inflows declined to US$7 million in 1983. A more detailed discussion of the country's external debt will be found in Chapter 2. Medium- and Long-term Prospects 13. The slackening of economic growth since 1980, together with the severe drought experienced in 1984 and worsening public sector finances, portend a difficult reconstruction phase over the next two to three years, for the economy of Antigua and Barbuda. The speed with which this transformation occurs is dependent upon continued international economic recovery, reorientation away from CARICOM to non-CARICOM international export markets and considerable restraint in public sector expenditures, which, together with improvements in the tax collection machinery, can bring positive public sector savings within the next three years. Annex II provides the detailed economic projections for the country and discussed below is an analysis of specific items and the various policy implications. Sectoral Growth 14. The medium- and long-term prospects for the economy depend upon continued expansion of tourism, a refocus of the manufacturing sector toward extra-regional export markets and transformation of the agricultural sector to provide an increasing quantity of domestic food requirements. Much will depend upon external events; however, appropriate government policies will be necessary, and these are discussed in Chapter III. Given these policy initiatives, the economy is projected to grow by approximately 4% per annum in real terms, from 1985 on. The leading sector will be tourism, which given the record winter season in 1984 and the high recorded bookings for the 1985 season, is expected to grow by 10% in 1985, and 7X thereafter. The manufacturing sector is presently undergoing a difficult transition away from the traditional CARICOM export market; but, given the establishment of two new garment operations, future prospects appear good -6- for the enclave component. Hence, growth is assumed to be 6% per annum from 1985. The agricultural sector's contribution to GDP will decline in 1984, and should record only modest growth in 1985. However, as the sector continues to move into vegetable crops, if appropriate livestock policies are implemented, the sector is expected to grow by 5% per annum from 1986 on. 15. The ratio of fixed investment to GDP is expected to remain constant at about 29% throughout the projection period. While an increase in this ratio would be desirable, given the infrastructure needs of the tconomy, the rate of growth of public sector investment will be constrained by the need to improve public sector savings and eliminate past arrears on previous loan obligations. It is projected that these fiscal constraints can be remedied by 1987, from which time, public sector investment could resume a steady real annual growth of about 4%. This overall level of growth of investment and GDP, should provide approximately 1,400 new jobs per annum, allowing for an approximate 1.8% annual reduction in unemployment rates in the first five years of the projection period. The expected rise in employment and personal disposable incomes should improve domestic savings from 12.8% of GDP in 1983 to 18.6% in 1995. Table 5: SELECTED MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS (percentages) 1983 1984 1985-89 1990-95 GDP (factor cost) growth 1.1 3.3 4.1 4.2 Investment/GDP 28.8 28.8 28.4 28.2 Domestic Savings/GDP 12.8 13.1 16.4 18.6 Consumption/GDP 87.2 86.9 83.7 81.4 Source: Annex II. Public Finances 16. Public sector finances should be expected to improve in the medium to long term, but this will require substantial adjustment and fiscal prudence over the 3-year period up to 1987. Over this period, current expenditures have been presumed to remain constant in real terms, and that activities to enhance the tax collection machinery will be introduced, together with some new taxes, such that current revenues will increase by 12.4% in real terms over the same period. The magnitude of the fiscal adjustment necessary is severe, and details of specific policies to bring this about are discussed in Chapter 2. Given this scenario, public sector savings should become positive in 1987, with a steady increase thereafter, such that they represent 5.0% of GDP by 1995. In order to meet amortization requirements in 1984, 1985 and 1986, and the needs of the public sector investment program, considerable external financing will be required. In part, this could be met by rescheduling of past obligations that allows for an immediate reduction in amortization requirements. With fiscal restraint in the short term, and a continual improvement in the state enterprises' surplus, the level of capital expenditures should improve rapidly from 1987 on. The ratio of total debt to GDP should reach a peak of 58.1% in 1985, but decline thereafter to 46.3% in 1995. This -7- projection excludes arrears outstanding at the end of 1983 however, as it is assumed that the Government's stated intention to arrange extraordinary measures to eliminate these arrears will be realized. Balance of Payments 17. The economic difficulties in Antigua's traditional export market, together with the effect of the recent drought will reduce export growth in 1984 and 1985, and increase imports, particularly foodstuffs, in the same period. The full impact of this on the resource balance however will be mitigated by the significantly increased contribution from the tourism sector. As the manufacturing sector is reoriented toward extra-regional markets, and with rehabilitation in the agricultural sector, this resource balance should improve steadily in real terms from 1985. Interest on public debt will increase substantially in 1984, causing the current account deficit to reach US$14.6 million, or 12.3% of GDP. The austere fiscal program advocated in Chapter 2 for the period 1985-87, and with steady growth in exports, this deficit should decline to about 10% in 1995. Table 6: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS PROJECTIONS (US$ million) 1983 1984 1985 1990 1995 Exports (Goods & NFS) 84.4 92.2 107.1 214.5 383.9 Imports (Goods & NFS) 101.3 112.4 125.8 243.9 438.0 Resource Balance -16.9 -20.3 -18.7 -29.4 -54.2 Net Factor Income -2.7 -6.9 -5.7 -4.8 -8.6 Private Transfers 12.0 12.6 13.2 16.9 21.6 Current Account Balance -7.6 -14.6 -11.2 -17.3 -41.3 Net Public Capital 2.6 6.6 11.9 10.7 14.4 Net Private Capital 4.5 8.0 -0.7 6.6 26.8 Memo Item Current Account/GDP (X) -6.8 -12.3 -8.4 -7.2 -10.4 Debt Service/Exports (X) 10.4 15.8 12.3 5.9 6.5 Source: Annex II. Creditworthiness 18. The urgent need of the Government to restore its creditworthiness is not reflected in the country's debt service burden as a share of foreign exchange revenue from exports of goods and nonfactor services as shown in Table 6. In part, this is because accumulated arrears have not been included in the projections. However, even under the assumption that these arrears would be paid off gradually during 1985-87, the debt service ratio would not rise above 15%, relatively low by current international standards. The Government's inability to service outstanding debt obligations reflects a lack of fiscal, not foreign exchange, resources (an issue which is discussed fully in Chapter 2). For that reason, realization of the macroeconomic improvements projected above are crucially dependent upon the Government undertaking an immediate fiscal austerity program. - 8 - This will require major restraint on government expenditures; however, if this is achieved, the prospects for improved fiscal and economic performance beyond 1987 are good. Furthermore, in order to restore creditworthiness, there is an urgent need to reschedule certain past obligations which could reduce immediate amortization requirements and provide a mechanism for past arrears to be settled in the future. In addition, the Government should refrain from new foreign borrowing on commercial terms. If these actions are not taken, it is unlikely that external finances will continue to flow to Antigua and Barbuda. The Government's present fiscal performance is such that it will be unable to finance needed expenditures on the country's infrastructure which, over time, would have a detrimental impact upon the tourism and other productive sectors. -9- II. THE PUBLIC SECTOR Overview 19. Over the past three years the fiscal performance of the Government of Antigua and Barbuda has deteriorated and in 1982 and 1983, public sector savings became negative. The overall deficit improved in 1983 to 8.4% of GDP, but this was a result of drastically curtailed capital expenditure and the current account deficit in this year reached 3.8% of GDP. The Central Government (excluding the statutory corporations and social service schemes) has experienced continually expanding current account deficits since 1979 as growth in current expenditures has outpaced growth in current revenues. Much of this growth has been due to the rapid increase in the number of nonestablished workers and wage increases for the entire public service. As a result of these unfavorable fiscal developments, there has been a marked buildup of arrears in payments, especially for external obligations, which has affected the country's creditworthiness and prejudiced future access to external credit. 20. Furthermore, these fiscal difficulties have created uncertainties for other branches of the public sector. The surpluses shown in the published accounts of the Social Security Scheme and Medical Benefits Scheme conceal a liquidity problem caused by nonpayment by the Central Government of its contributions to the schemes. At the end of 1982, unpaid government contributions totalled some 30% of the schemes' gross assets. In addition, this liquidity is placed under further pressure by nonpayment of debt service obligations by the Government and state enterprises. The state enterprises themselves are not immune to the phenomena of inter-governmental arrears in payments for services rendered and in particular, the utility services have found their financial and operational flexibility undermined by these arrears. Table 7: CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR BALANCES 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (EC$ million) Current revenue 62.3 78.7 96.2 103.6 96.5 Current expenditure 61.1 77.4 90.5 109.7 110.0 Current balance 1.2 1.3 5.7 -6.1 -13.5 Capital expenditure (net) 27.8 14.1 40.6 41.3 16.1 Overall balance -26.6 -12.8 -34.9 -47.4 -29.6 Financing External (net) 23.5 10.1 36.5 21.4 0.6 Domestic (net) 0.5 1.0 -8.0 9.8 10.0 Buildup of arrears 2.6 1.7 6.4 16.2 19.0 - Foreign (1.5) (1.7) (4.0) (12.8) (18.2) - Domestic (1.1) (--) (2.4) (3.4) (0.8) (As percent of GDP) Current revenue 26.6 28.0 30.2 30.0 27.3 Current expenditure 26.1 27.6 28.3 31.7 31.1 Current balance 0.5 0.5 1.8 -1.8 -3.8 Capital expenditure (net) 11.9 5.0 12.7 11.9 4.5 Overall balance -11.4 -4.6 -10.9 -13.7 -8.4 Buildup of arrears -1.1 -0.6 -2.0 -4.7 -5.4 Source: Statistical Annex Table 5.1. - 10 - 21. To meet day-to-day financial commitments, the Government has increasingly resorted to overdraft facilities at local banks, which are serviced via earmarking of bank collections of the foreign exchange sales levy and bank corporate tax liabilities. In the absence of accurate data, it is difficult to ascertain the full extent of this earmarking of revenues; however, this has occurred for other government purchases from local suppliers who have offset the receivable against owed import duties. Further expansion of this practice could undermine the Government's fiscal flexibility and raises doubts as to the accuracy of revenue and expenditure figures recorded in fiscal accounts. 22. The Government, as shown within the 1984 Budget statement, recognizes these difficulties and that expenditure controls and the revenue collection machinery require enhancement. There is explicit statement of the need for skilled, technical personnel to achieve this end and a need for reorganization of the system of collection enforcement and the penalties associated with noncompliance. Nevertheless, while these measures are necessary and would prove beneficial, in the absence of a comprehensive plan of expenditure reduction, they would not prove suffi- cient, especially if needed capital expenditures are to be at a level necessary to insure continual improvement of the country's infrastructure. Expenditure 23. Current expenditures of the Central Government have grown from 27% of GDP in 1979 to 31.1% in 1983. This expenditure growth has been across all categories; however, it has been most marked in the purchase of goods and services and interest payments. In the former, expenditures have increased by 167% since 1979 and in the latter, by 98%. In the four years up to 1981, capital expenditures remained relatively stable in the range of EC$25 to EC$27 million, and, with the exception of the sugar industry rehabilitation, were concentrated within the tourist sector. The level of capital expenditures rose dramatically in 1982 as a result of land purchases and preparatory engineering works for the Deep Bay tourist complex, but declined to a five-year low in 1983 as a result of the current fiscal difficulties and a decline in official foreign financing. Table 8: SELECTED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (EC$ million) Personal emoluments 32.6 33.3 35.4 44.1 50.4 Goods and services 9.0 16.7 25.1 25.6 24.0 Interest 9.7 13.2 16.6 26.8 19.2 (As a percentage of current expenditure) Personal emoluments 51.6 43.1 39.0 39.3 45.8 Goods and services 14.2 21.6 27.7 22.8 21.8 Interest 17.1 18.3 23.9 17.4 Sources: Statistical Annex Tables 5.1 and 5.2. - 11 - 24. Whatever short-term, revenue-enhancing measures are introduced, it is manifest that a coherent expenditure reduction and control program must be introduced to restore fiscal viability. This will require a cut in government employment. At the very minimum, expenditures should be allocated on the basis of a pragmatic appraisal of likely revenue inflows and stricter control to ensure that Ministries keep to this annual budget. It must be made clear to all operational divisions of the Government that no commitment to incur expenditure should be entered into unless it is clear that funds will be available to meet it. Revenues Table 9: SELECTED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (EC$ million) Income tax 4.3 6.2 10.4 10.7 11.4 Consumption tax 11.0 11.6 15.6 21.0 19.3 Import duties 12.3 16.3 17.3 18.8 17.7 Hotel and guest tax 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.6 6.0 Property tax 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.4 (As a percentage of current revenue) Income tax 8.1 9.7 13.1 11.5 13.0 Consumption tax 20.7 18.2 19.6 22.6 22.0 Import duties 23.1 25.5 21.8 20.2 20.1 Hotel and guest tax 6.0 6.1 5.4 5.0 6.8 Property tax 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.6 Source: Statistical Annex Table 5.3. 25. Following an annual average rate of increase of 20% from 1979 to 1982, current revenue collections declined by 5.4% in 1983. This reflects a decline in consumption taxes and import duties due to the lower level of merchandise imports. This decline in this form of indirect taxation may also reflect the increasing effect of the import duty exemptions granted under the Fiscal Incentives and Hotel Incentives Acts. It has been estimated that approximately 40% of these imports are subject to exemptions.l/ Direct tax receipts rose by 8.5% in 1983 as a result of higher collections from corporations and the 25% unincorporated business tax introduced in August 1982. Collections in this latter case however, have been disappointing and have not compensated for revenues lost from the abolition of personal income tax in December 1976. 26. Antigua and Barbuda has a low tax ratio (tax revenue as a percent of GDP) as compared to other OECS countries. In 1982 this stood at 18% as compared to 25% in Dominica, 21% in Grenada, 26% in St. Lucia and 23% in 1/ The Tax System of Antigua and Barbuda and the Directions of its Reform, A. M. Abdel-Rahman, et. al, IMF, April 1983. - 12 - St. Vincent and the Grenadines. This does suggest possibilities for additional revenue measures, but nominal rates for major specific taxes are already high, reducing the scope for further tax collection efficiencies. Over the past five years, many ad hoc measures have been introduced which have added to the overall complexity of the tax system and increased anomalies in taxing incomes and transactions. Instead of a comprehensive income tax, the country has a system of partial taxes, some of which are regressive in nature and not responsive to changes in GDP. There are many unnecessary complications, and in some cases, revenue generated does not justify their existence as independent taxes. The lack of an individual income tax undermines the efficiency of the corporate profits tax. 27. The present fiscal difficulties add urgency to the need for an effective tax policy and general improvement in the tax administration. This will not substitute for a program of expenditure reduction, but rather should be viewed as complementary to it. The goal of this plan should be to simplify the tax structure and increase reliance upon a fewer number of broad-based taxes. A variety of specific suggestions are given below: - as a general principle, collection and assessment should be carried out by the same Government agency. Furthermore, the necessary legal provisions must be in place to grant the revenue departments the necessary authorization to undertake needed collection actions. Further, concentration of revenue collection functions into fewer units, should improve auditing and valuation activities. Finally, penalties for non tax payment in Antigua and Barbuda should be enhanced; - the increasing tendency to earmark particular revenue for specific expenditure uses should be discouraged as this practice reduces the coverage of the budget and limits i.ts efficiency as a major fiscal instrument; - the system has become more complex than necessary, with a multiplicity of duties and taxes, levied on the same base but with different deductions, exclusions and exemptions. This obviously aggravates tax administration and taxpayer compliance and greater efficiency would result from a consolidation of many duties and taxes; - the consumption tax could be broadened by applying the ad valorem rate to the import price, inclusive of the import duty. There is possibly further scope for increases in the consumption tax on alcohol, tobacco and petroleum products. Furthermore, the Government should give early consideration to the introduction of a simplified sales or value added tax; - there would appear to be scope to increase property tax collections; however, this will require an updated valuation of properties; - 13 - - simplification would result if the hotel tax and guest levy were consolidated into one tax and in the interests of equity this should be assessed on an ad valorem basis; - more attention needs to be directed to the policy of granting import duty exemptions in the context of the overall investment incentive scheme. Furthermore, a system should be developed to continually monitor and assess the costs of these exemptions; - in the interests of an equitable distribution of the tax burden, thought should be given to the reintroduction of some form of personal income tax. State Enterprises 28. The current surplus of the major state enterprises declined in 1982 and became negative in 1983. The net operating surpluses of both the Port Authority and the Antigua Public Utilities Authority (APUA) declined in 1983. The deficit of the Central Marketing Corporation declined marginally despite a 53% increase in sales in 1983. Implementation problems caused Antigua Fisheries to record a deficit of EC$0.9 million. Both the Port Authority and the Utilities Authority implemented measures in 1983 to increase revenues through improved services and collections; however, in the case of APUA, this improvement was negated by a 38% wage increase granted in 1983 to be spread over 1984 and 1985. The APUA continues to suffer liquidity problems, in part due to other government agency arrears for payment for services. 29. The future financial viability of the major state enterprises requires restraint in the growth of expenditures, particularly wage costs. Further efforts must be made to ensure prompt payment of inter-government charges. With respect to the Central Marketing Corporation, consideration should be given to an increase in operating margins, as the present 10% markup appears insufficient to ensure longer term financial viability. External Debt 30. The gross external debt, and the accumulation of arrears associated with this debt is a cause of concern to the Government, which if not rapidly brought under control, could prejudice future external financing efforts. This debt has risen from 48.5% of GDP in 1979 to 61.3% in 1983. The large increase in debt in 1981 was a result of financing of the Halcyon Cove and Deep Bay Hotel projects, and the purchase of two large generators by the Antigua Public Utilities Authority. This growth in debt has been increasingly on commercial terms, the proportion rising from 71% in 1978 to 77% in 1983. Debt service obligations have grown dramatically from 10.7% of Central Government current revenue in 1975 to 32.3% in 1983. This burden has been met with difficulty, and less than half of accrued debt service obligations falling due in 1982 and 1983 were actually paid. Arrears have increased from 9.1% of current revenue in 1979 to 47.4% in 1983. Clearly, further buildup of arrears will inhibit future financing efforts. Immediate action must be taken by the Government to arrange with its creditors a schedule that will eliminate pa< ;rrears r ;'c; for - 14 - debt servicing to occur in the future. The most important component of this reprogramming exercise will have to be an improvement in fiscal performance brought about by cuts in current expenditure. In addition, the Government should refrain from new foreign borrowing on commercial terms and should set up an effective system to control external debt operations. During 1984, the Government of Antigua and Barbuda has reduced its gross external debt however it was not possible to obtain the complete picture for 1984 for inclusion in this report. Table 10: EXTERNAL DEBT DEVELOPMENTS (US$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Gross Principal Outstanding 42.1 44.6 74.4 79.1 80.3 Less Loan Proceeds on Deposit 11.1 11.1 27.6 27.5 27.3 Net Principal Outstanding 31.0 33.5 46.8 51.6 53.0 Cumulative Arrears Outstanding 1.8 2.4 3.9 8.7 15.4 Debt Service Payments 2.1 6.7 14.1 10.8 10.5 (As a percentage of GDP) Net Principal Outstanding 35.7 32.2 39.6 40.3 40.4 Cumulative Arrears Outstanding 2.1 2.3 3.3 6.8 11.6 Source: Statistical Annex Table 4.1. - 15 - III. DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES Future Challenges and Directions 31. Despite the country's limited resource base and the vulnerability of its economy to external movements in prices and incomes, considerable progress has already been achieved in the improvement of the population's economic wellbeing. Furthermore, adult literacy is in excess of 90% and nutritional intake has steadily improved, together with the quality of health care. Further accomplishments over the next five years however, may prove more difficult to obtain. As has been found in many other developing environments, Antigua and Barbuda has experienced an increasing imbalance between the country's growth in productive manpower absorption and the skills availability and work aspirations of the more youthful working population. 32. This increasing unemployment has been aggravated by the continual shortage of key skilled manpower, in particular technical and managerial personnel. Development of the country's resources has suffered by significant emigration of the more highly trained workforce. In addition, the country has experienced shortages of semi-skilled or unskilled workers, particularly in agriculture, as available jobs do not appear to meet the employment aspirations of younger workers. Overcoming these difficulties to a job creation, labor force growth balance, represents the major development challenge. The Government recognizes this challenge, and has placed great emphasis on the need to generate jobs for the 1000-1200 annual school-leavers and the present unemployed. 33. Methods to achieve this goal however, have been given less policy clarity. Obviously, greater investment capital will need to be directed toward productive undertakings, however the sectoral emphasis of this investment will be crucial. More detailed analysis of the relative merits of each sector, with respect to employment generation, are discussed below. Whatever sectoral emphasis may be followed however, intensified efforts must be directed toward an overall improvement in vocational training and education to improve the qualitative standards of the labor force to meet the needs of a diversifying economic structure. Government plans for a hotel training centre is a positive development in this direction and warrants duplication for other specific vocational training needs. A. Agriculture Past Structure and Development 34. The agricultural sector in Antigua and Barbuda has been in a steady state of decline since the mid-1970s, and despite a variety of efforts, the performance of the sector is considerably below potential. The pattern of production has moved away from plantation crops, such as cotton and sugar, toward a more diversified system of fruits and vegetables. While this transition is sensible given the marketing and agrotechnical realities facing the country, agricultural production continues to be adversely affected by lack of - 16 - entrepreneurial activity and the noneconomic size of most small farms. The Government owns nearly 60% of the available land, and the traditional method of short-term leases has not been conducive to productive investment in land improvement. Undoubtedly, agriculture can make a significant contribution to the economic development of Antigua and Barbuda; however, the sector's ability to generate substantial employment opportunities in the near to medium term is doubtful. In terms of sector emphasis, tourism, manufacturing and trade would appear to offer greater scope for growth and employment. Selective improvements in key bottlenecks constraining the mobilization of agricultural resources, may have greater impact on output of the sector than endeavors to undertake large-scale production and development schemes. Future Policy Crops 35. Production of fruits and vegetables has improved considerably, reducing import requirements and steadily increasing the volume of direct sales to hotels. Further, small but growing quantities of some crops (hot peppers and okra) have been reaching markets in London and Canada. The main vegetable crops are tomatoes, cabbage and cucumber, while sweet potatoes and yams constitute the main root crops. While pineapple expansion efforts have had limited success, considerable potential exists for increased output of this fruit. It is within this overall crop category that considerable Government policy initiatives should be directed. The present labor, water and land tenure constraints notwithstanding, the scope for increasing supply to the tourist sector, together with the future possibilities of linkage into agro-processing manufacturing, should make this a high priority subsector. 36. Cotton has been an important crop in Antigua's agriculture; however, since 1978, it has steadily declined as a result of low productivity, low prices and high levels of pest infestation. While the quality of the country's "Sea Island" cotton is excellent, and market prospects are also sound, the present magnitude of production difficulties (in particular the shortage and expense of harvesting labor) mitigates against any speedy resumption of output of this crop. 37. Sugarcane production resumed in 1979, following the initiation of a sugar rehabilitation project. The goal was to produce approximately 5,000 tons of raw sugar per annum to satisfy domestic demand. The project has encountered serious implementation problems and in 1984, 250 tons of sugar were milled. Productivity is low, with very low cane/sugar yields (18.0 tons cane per ton of sugar). This is due primarily to prolonged burning/grinding intervals and continued mechanical problems within the factory which increases down time. There is a shortage of field equipment and acquiring sufficient labor has been difficult, despite an extensive island-wide campaign to attract cutters and loaders. Furthermore, the workforce within the factory is relatively new and inexperienced. Efforts have been made to improve efficiency and extensive repairs and modifications within the factory three months prior to the past crop season have improved the sugar yield. Lack of completed financial accounts inhibits complete financial appraisal; however, efficiencies have been - 17 - effected and the average cost of refined sugar was reduced from EC$5.44 per pound in 1982 to EC$1.99 in 1983. Notwithstanding these improvements, the financial viability of Antigua Sugar Industry Corporation is not assurred. Liabilities exceed the value of realizable assets by a wide margin and the project is unlikely to reach the estimated break-even production of between 2,000 to 2,500 tons of sugar in the near future. The domestic sugar price of EC$1.15 per lb. is approximately 20% higher than the imported product price and some 42% lower than the 1983 cost of production. In the absence of substantial improvements in output and efficiency, it is difficult to foresee this crop making a significant contribution to economic development in Antigua, and the Government resources expended to cover the industry's losses could more profitably be utilized in other areas of agriculture. There is an immediate need for a review of the sugar sector to determine whether this project should continue. 38. The livestock subsector has considerable potential to satisfy an increasing proportion of domestic demand, including the tourist sector. To realize this potential, however, the industry requires modernization and an improvement of domestic livestock rearing practices. Land tenure and control policy is such that grazing is highly inefficient, with little regard for scientific pasture control and rotation. Coupled with this, the domestic marketing arrangements are deficient. Fixed liveweight and retail prices for meat products inhibit livestock offtake; local abattoir facilities are inadequate and require rehabilitation and grading and quality control procedures need improvement. Some farmers are able to sell direct to the hotel trade and thereby command higher prices particularly if they are able to undertake their own slaughtering; however, the extent of this activity is far below potential. Efforts have been made by the Ministry of Agriculture and several external donors to improve livestock production in Antigua; however, little can be achieved without more fundamental reforms in grazing and marketing policies. 39. Small acreages of grains, mostly maize, are grown. Between 1975 and 1978, a private venture undertook a project to grow corn and sorghum, achieving good yields from nearly 2,500 acres. The project failed for technical and managerial reasons, in particular over investment in capital equipment and insufficient experience of the particular soil types. Potential exists, however, for further carefully controlled investigations of the viability of this crop in Antigua, which if modest in scope, could provide valuable information on cultivation methods suitable to this environment and provide a sound foundation for further expansion. Furthermore, success in this area could also stimulate production of other products such as pork and poultry. A private company, which set up an egg supply operation in early 1984, has planted maize, but results have been disappointing so far because of the drought. 40. The fishing industry revived somewhat in 1983 following several years of decline. There is scope for further improvement, particularly in pursuing the development of storage, processing and marketing facilities. A fisheries project was started in 1982, with external funding assistance. Antigua Fisheries' primary objective has been to establish an enterprise that would engage in harvesting, processing and selling fish products in both the domestic and regional markets. Boat operations began in March 1983 and preliminary work on the processing plant commenced in May 1983. - 18 - Unfortunately the project has encountered major implementation problems and the four boats purchased have been found to be inappropriate for the local conditions. Management has subsequently downgraded the project's scope to concentrate upon the processing and marketing of the local fishermen's catch. An overall reassessment is presently being undertaken prior to any expenditure on a storage/processing facility. Land Utilization and Tenure 41. The lack of a coordinated data base for land use planning continues to inhibit the development of a sound agricultural development policy. The Ministry of Agriculture, together with technical assistance from the OAS, has inaugurated a series of studies to remedy this deficiency. This undertaking commenced in February 1984 and by the end of 1984, considerably more information on soil types, land tenure, land use capability and actual production should be available. 42. Previous economic memoranda have discussed the problems with the Antiguan method of letting land under 5 acres in area, which is an unwritten, unregistered tenancy, renewable indefinitely for a period of one year. Although in practice this arrangement provided adequate security of tenure and, in and of itself, did not inhibit credit availability, farmers did view the tenancy as a "second-class" form of tenure, compared to leases, and for that reason stated a preference for lease arrangements. However, the process of obtaining a lease involved unnecessary delays and red tape, for example, backlogs in surveys required, the requirement that Cabinet approve all leases, and the need for lawyers to draw up individual leases. 43. The Government has taken some important steps to clarify the land tenure system and to streamline lease procedures. First, the Government has decided to phase out tenancies, making leases the sole form of tenure. The norm for the lease term would be 10 years for the land to be switched from tenancy arrangements. Fees for the new leases are likely to be raised significantly compared to the tenancy charges, which were quite low (EC$7 - EC$20 per year). The Extension Service would continue to collect fees for these leases, as is the procedure for tenancies. Second, with the assistance of the OAS, a standard lease has been drawn up, which would be amended as necessary. The Attorney General is now examining the form and a decision as to its suitability is expected shortly. If the standard form is approved, the process of obtaining a lease would be sped up considerably and many of the legal fees which are now necessary would be eliminated. Third, the Lands Department has requested donor funding for surveying equipment, necessary to aid in clearing up the still considerable backlog of surveys required. 44. The Lands Department has made some additional minor administrative changes to streamline procedures, but the continued requirement for a Cabinet decision on every lease remains a bottleneck. The need for delegation of this authority to the Land Officer and/or the Minister of Agriculture will become even more compelling once the process of converting tenancies to leases begins. - 19 - Water Resources 45. The severe drought (which did not ease until the fall of 1984) has emphasized the importance of a sufficient and constant supply of water, to ensure future intensive agricultural production. While both Government and external aid agencies undertook emergency measures to improve the water supply situation in Antigua and Barbuda, more intensive efforts will be needed in the future. A certain amount of pond clearing and small dam construction has been undertaken in the past 18 months; however, little progress has been made in further development of irrigation projects. Much would be achieved by a consolidation of present irrigation programs, that would more intensively utilize the human resources available for supervision and implementation. Furthermore, continuing efforts should be made to encourage the use of "dry farming" techniques where applicable. USAID will be directing future attention toward the overall water supply situation in the country, and to facilitate this work, it is important that the Government's agricultural policy be fully integrated into an island-wide water usage plan. Marketing 46. Further development of the domestic marketing arrangements for agricultural products is needed. At present, systems appear fragmented, although some improvements have occurred with improving efficiencies within the Central Marketing Corporation (CMC). In the case of livestock, much would be achieved by a change in meat control prices policy, leaving private sector butchers and processors to respond to market demand potentials within the tourist sector. The CMC has recently started a Marketing Intelligence Unit to monitor crop information for transmission to farmers. This should improve, to some extent, the past glut/shortage cycle experienced in much of Antigua's vegetable production. 47. The CMC recorded a dramatic increase in sales (+53%) in 1983; however, losses were still incurred. The Corporation has been granted sole importation rights for rice, sugar and fertilizer, and experiments in the importation and marketing of nonagricultural items have been terminated. Plans are afoot to expand operations via a closer coordination of production and marketing efforts; by expansion of the available volume of refrigerated storage and by increasing efforts in extra-regional export markets. The success of these plans will depend upon CMC's ability to overcome its present liquidity difficulties. The Corporation's working capital improved substantially in 1982, as a result of the Government's assumption of prior debt obligations; however, it has deteriorated badly in 1983 as a result of the deficit in operations and a large increase in current liabilities (the quick asset ratio declined from 1.27 in 1982 to 0.53 in 1983). CMC's plans and activities appear consistent with an improvement in agricultural output in Antigua; however, early consideration must be given to revision of its pricing structure if operational surpluses are to be achieved. The present markup margin of 10% may be too low. Institutional Support 48. The Ministry of Agriculture, Lands and Fisheries has overall responsibility for the agriculture sector in Antigua and Barbuda. In addition, four statutory corporations report to this Ministry (CMC, Antigua - 20 - Fisheries, Antigua Sugar Industry Corporation and Agricultural Development Corporation). In common with other Ministries, Agriculture suffers from a shortage of skilled technical personnel, in particular project management personnel and extension staff. External assistance from USAID and Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI) has been directed toward the extension effort, in conjunction with an internal reorganization undertaken by the Government. A separate extension division has been established, which includes a new Training and Information Section established in 1983. As a result, visits to farmers have increased with a concommitant increase in farmer training activities. These developments are encouraging; however, further rationalization of the service is needed. Coordination and planning remains difficult and continued attention must be given to a centralization of function in order to economize upon the use of scarce managerial resources. For example, the Horticulture, Plant Protection, Agricultural Research and Agricultural Engineering Services might be beneficially integrated with the Agricultural Extension Division. 49. A major difficulty for many farmers has been their difficulty or inability to obtain necessary finance for inputs of seed, fertilizer and pesticide. CMC in the past has lacked the financial resources to be of much assistance. In cooperation with one of the domestic banks, CMC has recently introduced a revolving credit scheme for inputs. The amount available (EC$157,000) is relatively small, and initiation of the scheme has yet to begin. Tractor services have been provided by the Sugar Corporation; however, scheduling and organization problems have been encountered. Government needs to address both issues within a comprehensive agricultural policy, targeting the available support services towards those crops or projects considered to have a sound, short-term market viability. It is important to remember that in the area of supply of mechanical services, the private sector can be encouraged to play an increasing role. B. Manufacturing Past Structure and Development 50. Manufacturing activity in Antigua and Barbuda is in a relatively early stage of development; however, in 1983, manufactured exports represented about 85% of total domestic exports. The range of products produced includes garments, furniture, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, foodstuffs, packaging materials and consumer household durables. The initial impetus for growth of the sector has stemmed from import substitution production and sales within the traditional CARICOM market; however, the present difficulties within this market have highlighted the importance of enclave-type manufacturing catering to extra-regional markets. It will be this form of production that will provide the future growth in the sector. 51. The primary activity, in terms of employment, is the garment/textiles subsector (47%) followed by food and beverages (21%) and fabricated wood products (12%). In terms of value of output, garments and textiles contributes about 35% of total sector production, food and beverages about 20%, and fabricated metal products about 14%. As a - 21 - reflection of the sector's embryonic stage of development, output is highly skewed. In 1982, five firms, or 9% of the total, produced 52% of the output and employed 50% of the manufacturing workforce. In contrast, 53% of establishments produced 11% of the output and had a workforce of nine or less employees. 52. Hithertofore, manufacturing in Antigua has received substantial protection. Tariffs are low or nonexistent on most inputs and import licensing has been imposed on most goods that are produced domestically. In practice, most enterprises, whether of the import-substitution or en- clave variety, receive fiscal concessions under the Fiscal Incentives Act (1975). These incentives conform to those available throughout the OECS. As might be expected, the manufacturing enterprises which currently operate in Antigua and Barbuda, reflect this industrial incentive structure and are largely dependent upon imported raw materials and intermediate inputs. Undoubtedly, the high degree of protection available has allowed a number of firms to continue in operation with quite low levels of capacity utili- zation. Furthermore, in some cases, it has contributed to inappropriate capital investment decisions, which, in the absence of intensive use of this capital, mitigates against any improvement in cost competitiveness. While the present trade and economic difficulties within CARICOM have threatened the continued operation of several firms, it may have the unforeseen benefit of clarifying future manufacturing policy and reaffirms the need to promote and attract that type of activity which has a real potential for extra-regional exports. Future Policy 53. The recently passed Carribean Basin Initiative; the country's close and direct access to the United States; together with generous fiscal incentives all combine to produce an attractive environment for export-oriented light manufacturing and assembly operations. The fact that plans are in an advanced stage for (a) the expansion of one local garment producer in joint venture with a Hong Kong-based firm; (b) establishment of a new garment facility also from Hong Kong; and (c) a new electronic fabrication facility, all targetted toward the US market, is indicative of this potential. Discussed below are a variety of issues and factors that will affect future industrialization efforts, and the development of an overall manufacturing sector policy. 54. Infrastructure and Factory Shells. Considerable improvement in electricity production has occurred in the latter part of 1983 and early 1984 as a result of the acquisition of new generators by the Electricity Division of APUA. This is encouraging; however, continued improvements in the regularity of service are necessary. Government should monitor this situation carefully and encourage APUA to continue to improve productivity and cost efficiency. 55. Over the past two years there has been a shortage of adequate factory space, primarily due to a curtailment of disbursements from CDB due to arrears on service obligations. A recent loan from a domestic commercial bank (EC$1.4 million) will be utilized to construct an additional 20,000 sq. ft. shell, and further finance could be made available from a possible purchase of another shell by the present tenant. - 22 - Both events should alleviate this shortage to some extent, nevertheless, further factory construction funding will need to be sought and the Government should investigate the possibilities for mobilizing private domestic sources. In the past, the subsidized rentals charged by the Government may have inhibited the use of local private sector funds to provide factory space. While these low rentals are a form of attraction incentive, the Government should reappraise their level so as to more accurately reflect local building costs and opportunity cost of capital, and seek creative mechanisms to allow for local private sector involvement in future construction. In addition, there is a considerable rent arrears problem on existing factories for those firms that have either ceased operations or have been operating intermittently. An early decision will have to be made with respect to eviction of those firms in substantial arrears, which should free considerable space for future enclave activity. 56. The Government has recently reactivated the Industrial Development Board to oversee future growth in the sector. This is an encouraging initiative; however, the composition of the Board may not be sufficiently comprehensive. At present, there is no representation from the local Manufacturers Association, the Chamber of Commerce or local manufacturers, and, as an important mandate of the resuscitated Board is to generate an industrial strategy, this may represent a serious oversight. Undoubtedly, the experiences of already established manufacturers and entrepreneurs would represent a beneficial input to the Board's activities. For similar reasons, as the Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank is involved in the administration of factory shells, it would be beneficial to also have representation from this organization. As industrial expansion is rightfully one of the chosen development and employment generation routes, it is important that the Government continue to seek to regularize contact procedures and coordination of all areas of the public sector involved in the industrialization effort. It is crucial that prospective investors have "one-stop" access to Government with respect to new ventures and that there is an ongoing consistency to Government appraisal of the desirability of each new investment. 57. At present, manufacturing promotion activities are undertaken by the local representative of the USAID - Project Development Assistance Program (PDAP). The PDAP project provides personnel and funds for preinvestment studies and assistance in identifying potential investors. In addition, the UNIDO North American Investment Promotion Services based in New York assist in these activities through its Caribbean Investment Promotion Service (CIPS). Under this program, an Antiguan Government employee is stationed in New York to direct promotion efforts. In the past year, considerable success has been experienced in the identification of future manufacturing investment in the country. In the future, however, it is important that the Government increase its capacity to promote Antigua and Barbuda as an enclave manufacturing location. The range of potential manufacturing operations that could be established in Antigua and Barbuda is large, covering a wide variety of assembly and fabrication operations. These include apparel, electronic components, data processing, assembly of specialist equipment (e.g., medical supplies) and furniture. While some of these activities (electronics and data processing) are high growth industries in more industrialized environments, it is important to recognize in the development of an industrial strategy, that many are also - 23 - subject to high rates of obsolescense and extreme cost competitiveness. As a result, concentration on this form of enclave manufacturing renders small economies vulnerable to dramatic shifts in demand and competitive position. It is important, therefore, that Antigua and Barbuda endeavor to build a manufacturing and export base that is sufficiently diversified, in terms of both product and geographic market, to provide some measure of security for domestic employment in manufacturing. Labor and Wages 58. Manufacturing enterprises operating in Antigua and Barbuda have encountered infrequent labor disputes and in general have found the highly literate workforce amenable and receptive to inhouse training and to the development of high-quality production standards. The increasing technological sophistication of future potential manufacturing in the country, however, implies that the Government and the Industrial Development Board should continue to investigate possibilities to enhance the scope of available vocational training. This factor will be of crucial importance in the promotion of further industrial development and should be oriented to not only equipping school leavers with necessary industrial skills but also retraining and upgrading the skills of those already employed within manufacturing and other sectors. This would be accomplished by the expansion of existing formal training programs, but more importantly, enhanced apprenticeship and in-plant training activities could have a more immediate impact upon available industrial skills. 59. Most wage contracts in Antigua and Barbuda are for a three-year period. For contracts concluded in 1983, there was some moderation in the rate of wage increase, as compared to previous years, with settlements in the range of 9 to 13.5%. While this moderation is welcome, given the very low underlying inflation rates and high unemployment rate, the level of real wage increase may still be excessive. If this continues, the country's ability to successfully attract enclave manufacturing could be undermined. The Government should actively encourage moderation in future wage settlements, primarily by ensuring moderation within the public sector. Marketing 60. Within Antigua and Barbuda, there is a shortage of local entrepreneurial and experienced managerial talent, partly as a result of migration, which inhibits the scope for joint venture activities with foreign investment and the use of this talent in manufacturing operations. On the other hand, the small size and lack of overseas sales experience of many of the local firms means that some form of joint venture activity is needed if markets in the US and elsewhere are to be successfully penetrated. A way out of this connundrum will not be easy. Some firms that have traditionally catered to CARICOM markets are endeavoring to find alternative sales outlets. For example, the local rum producer is seeking an experienced distributor and a local electronic assembly operation is endeavouring to obtain contract work in the U.S. For most others of this type however, the marketing problems are immense. As a first step in overcoming this constraint, the Government should encourage future enclave operations to initiate in-house supervisory/management training for - 24 - Antiguans. Secondly, in ongoing Government scholarship programs, appropriate priority should be given to business management studies. Thirdly, attention should be addressed toward the development of indigenous linkage industries able to provide inputs to the enclave manufacturing sector. It is in this area that the greatest scope exists for development of indigenous entrepreneurship and locally owned firms. C. Tourism Past Structure and Development 61. Tourism is the single most important economic activity in Antigua and Barbuda. Its direct value added now accounts for approximately 14% of GDP (measured at constant factor cost). The indirect value added from tourism is also significant, probably about 7% of GDP. Approximately 12% of the labor force is employed in the sector. Taxes on hotels, guests and cruise ships amounted to EC$8.2 million in 1983, slightly over 9% of current revenue. The sector also generates additional revenue in other tax categories. After two years of declines in overnight visitor arrivals in 1980-81 and only a small rise in 1982, the tourism sector became more vibrant with stay-over visitors exceeding 100,000 in 1983 for the first time. Another strong increase on overnight arrivals is expected in 1984 given the strong performance of the 1983-84 high season. There are some indications that the growth in average expenditures has slowed somewhat both because of lower annual increases in room rates reflecting primarily the moderation in inflation, and because of the increased significance of package tours. Notwithstanding this, Antigua and Barbuda still appears to cater to the upper end of the tourist market, which in some measure accounts for the industry's ability to raise prices during 1981 and 1982. 62. In contrast to the sharp increase in overnight arrivals, cruise ship arrivals dropped again in 1983. Cruise ship companies appear to be stressing short-land trips which makes stopovers in Antigua less likely. Reflecting this trend, Antigua's share of cruise ship arrivals has fallen from a high of 3.16% in 1981 to 1.44%. 63. Currently the US is by far Antigua's major tourist market accounting for approximately 46% of stay-over visitor arrivals in 1983. The higher share reflects two factors: one, the high increases in arrivals from the US in 1982 and 1983, 22% and 33%, respectively because of improved economic conditions there; and two, lower growth in European arrivals, primarily because of the strengthening of the US dollar (to which the EC dollar is tied) against most of the major European currencies. Antigua raised its share of total Caribbean tourist arrivals from 1.22% in 1981-82 to 1.38% in 1983. Future Policy Accommodation Capacity 64. In 1983 there was an estimated increase in accommodation capacity of slightly over 10%, most of which took place in the guest house category. The rise followed major additions to hotel capacity in 1980 and 1981. No data is collected on hotel occupancy rates, but industry experts - 25 - estimate that occupancy rates at the major hotels ran at about 75-80% during the high season. There were isolated instances of overbooking, a problem which the industry should cooperate to avoid in order to mitigate any serious damage to Antigua's image as a destination. 65. Responding to the recent record seasons, significant investment is occurring to further increase room capacity. Lending through the commercial banks and the Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank in 1983 and the first half of 1984 has reached nearly US$10 million. Perhaps the most significant development in the area of accommodation is the recent sale of the previously Government-owned, 100-room Halycon Reef Hotel to a private British investment group, which owns and operates luxury hotels in several other locations. The new owners are carrying out extensive refurbishment work and plan to open the facilities in time for the 1984-85 high season. For the last several years the occupancy rates at the Halycon Reef had been quite low because of poor maintenance and weak management and promotion. 66. The Government's prime role in the future expansion of tourist accommodation in Antigua and Barbuda should remain similar to its past efforts to create an environment conducive to the flow of private investment. In the past, the Government has sought financing to develop other large, resort developments, and efforts are continuing. These projects, if completed, would substantially boost capacity, however these efforts should not detract from the search for potential direct private investments in the sector. Furthermore, increased borrowing by the Central Government for direct hotel investment in the sector, could inhibit the Government's overall finance raising ability for other infrastructural projects necessary for the development of the economy as a whole. Supporting Infrastructure and Services 67. The critical infrastructure problem faced by the tourism sector in 1984 was the shortage of water. There were no major disruptions in the supply of water to guests in major hotels because these hotels have either bought barged water from the Antigua Public Utilities Authority or arranged for their own supplies from neighboring islands. As the costs of barged water are quite high (US$27 per 1,000 gallons), several of the larger hotels have invested in small desalination plants to meet their needs. Most of these plants are expected to be delivered and operational before the beginning of the next high season. 68. Some additional locally funded investment has taken place for the airport, which was financed by CIDA and officially opened in June 1982, primarily related to the access road and the parking area. Two additional investments are needed to ensure that the facilities in Antigua meet the necessary standards for the major air carriers--repairs to the surface of the runway and the purchase of navigation and air traffic control equipment. Work on additional ramp area was begun by the Public Works Department but is only partially completed because of lack of local funds. 69. Air services to Antigua still appear good. There have been no major changes in capacity or connections. Although there is no direct service from continental Europe, individual hotels or tours are able to arrange charters. - 26 - 70. Tourism industry representatives identify training as one of the major needs in the sector. Unfortunately, the project to relocate the hotel training school in a renovated hotel has been delayed. Since the project would meet an identified need, the Government should perhaps expand the search for donor financing. 71. The Organization of American States (OAS) is scheduled to begin a two-year technical assistance program in the area of tourism infrastructure development and tourism planning. Given the continued absence of a tourism plan for Antigua, this project can make an important contribution in identifying critical needs in the sector, setting investment priorities and facilitating the development of Government policy for the sector. Promotion 72. The Antigua Department of Tourism is responsible for carrying out the promotion done by the Government and for collecting and analyzing tourism statistics. The Department's performance has been severely limited by inadequate resources (the budget has remained at EC$300,000 for the last several years) and lack of trained staff. Although the promotion expenditures of the private sector must be many times larger than those of the Department, significant benefits could be realized from advertising the country as a tourist destination. In order to finance additional promotion expenditures, the Government levied an additional 1% tax on hotel rooms and food and beverage charges, effective November 15, 1982. However, as of yet, no funds have been allocated for this purpose, primarily because of delays in preparing a plan for use of the money. This was primarily the responsibility of the Tourist Board. Data Limitations 73. The statistical base for tourism needs to be strengthened particularly in the area of data on occupancy rates, length of stay, expenditure patterns, and tourist opinions. This information is essential for setting investment priorities in the sectors, developing new services and activities for tourists, and measuring the contribution to the economy. The Caribbean Tourism Research Center (CTRC) recently completed a new tourism expenditure survey for Antigua: a much needed exercise since the last survey was done in 1980. Results of the study should be available by the end of 1984. Employment 74. As previously noted, the tourist sector is an important source of employment in Antigua. The average number of employees per room is slightly under 1, with large hotels generating relatively more employment per room because they are usually more luxurious and offer a higher standard of service. Wage increases in the sector were a weekly across the board increase of EC$10 and EC$20, respectively, in 1982 and 1983. This represented increases ranging from 6-11% in 1982 and 11-20% in 1983. It should be pointed out that the granting of across the board wage increases over an extended period of time will erode the incentives, in the form of higher wages, for more skilled and experienced workers. The most recent - 27 - wage agreement calls for an across the board increase of EC$10 to the weekly wage for most workers in 1984 and 1985, although some classes of employees will receive slightly lower increases. The latest agreement reflects a moderation in awards compared to the increase in 1982, and is appropriate given the recent decline in inflation rates. This last agreement was preceded by a short strike in December 1983, which the courts declared illegal. As a result, slightly under 150 employees lost their jobs. The case is being appealed, but the employers (who were supported by the Government) do not believe that the decision will be overturned. D. Infrastructure 75. Overall, infrastructure development in Antigua and Barbuda is quite advanced, however maintenance and rehabilitation of this infrastructure has begun to suffer over the past three years as a result of the Government's fiscal difficulties. Urgent consideration must be given to forestalling further deterioration in road, water supply and electricity systems. 76. Problems of port congestion in the capital city, have eased considerably in 1983 and early 1984, primarily as a result of declining cruise ship arrivals, a slight drop in tonnage handled and a general improvement in overall port productivity. Recent provision of new handling equipment by CIDA, basically fulfills immediate equipment needs and ongoing technical assistance by the same organization should enhance efficiency still further. At present port utilization is about 50% of capacity, however this utilization is expected to increase as cruise ship arrivals increase. The tariff structure is presently subject to review and as a result of this study rates may be upgraded. This would improve the declining net profit trend, however caution needs to be exercised in the granting of future wage increases for the port labor force. 77. The main priority within the road sector in the country is maintenance and rehabilitation of the existing network. Over the past three years, Central Government budget constraints have curtailed road maintenance, which, given the large increase in traffic, could have serious implications for the tourism and agriculture sectors. The present EDF project to rehabilitate 18 miles of road should be of assistance in this regard, however further efforts must be made, particularly with village feeder roads. The Public Work Department (PWD) recognizes this priority, and has a general plan to rehabilitate access roads to the capital city. The PWD is constrained in this endeavour by an extreme shortage of equipment, particularly rollers. Much of this could be remedied by rehabilitation of existing equipment that is out of service as a result of a lack of spares or technical personnel to carry out the work. 78. There has been a steady improvement in the provision of telephone services in the country, with almost EC$2 million being invested over the past two years. The service however still has a long waiting list of potential users and further finance will be needed for an expansion of the system. Installed capacity of the electricity service is about 25 MW, which, given peak load demand of 12 MW, should be adequate for the near future. Two new 6.5 MW medium speed diesel generators were installed in 1982, and while full integration of this new equipment into the system has - 28 - taken longer than expected, reliability of electricity services in the country have improved substantially in 1984. Transmission line losses however remain a problem, and the electricity division of APUA has an upgrading program that is hoped will reduce the 23% losses down to 18% by the end of 1984. 79. One of the prime inhibitors of future growth and development in Antigua and Barbuda is the ready availability of water supplies. The drought in 1983 and through a major part of 1984 graphically demonstrated the fragility of the present water supply system. Rainfull in 1983 was half the normal annual average (the lowest recorded rainfall since 1874) and by mid 1984, the water situation had reached critical proportions. As noted in Chapter IV, an emergency water supply program was undertaken to barge 500,000 gallons per day from the neighboring islands of Dominica and Guadaloupe, with financial assistance from BDD, USAID, EDF, and CIDA, and technical assistance from UNDP. This was only a short-term solution (fortunately, there were heavy rains in the latter part of 1984), and a comprehensive national water policy, that is integrated into an overall development and employment generation strategy, is needed. While Antigua is not a high rainfall country, the present difficulties have highlighted the general deterioration of collection, storage and distribution systems. In the medium term, much could be achieved by a continuous leak detection and repair program; by dam cleaning and well rehabilitation. The proposed large USAID water supply rehabilitation project (further elaborated on in Chapter IV) will address all these issues, and should make a major positive impact upon the overall water supply in the country. The Government has investigated the possibilities of construction of a large scale desalination plant. The financial requirement for such a plant would be prodigous, and the present USAID project may reduce the need for such a large investment; hence it behooves the Government to proceed cautiously in further analysis of this water enhancement option. E. Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank 80. The Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank (ABDB), established in 1974 to channel funds lent by the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), increased loans to the private sector by 35% in 1982, and realized a small profit on operations. These loans were primarily for housing, although small industry loans and demands for funds for small hotel development were also significant. In 1983, a similar pattern of loan demand occurred, although that for agriculture declined considerably. ABDB has experienced difficulty in servicing CDB's loans, primarily due to collection arrears on the debt service payments of subborrowers. Action has been taken to improve this collection record, and internal loan administration has been tightened. It is hoped that these measures will improve ABDB's financial viability and hence its ability to remain current on its obligation to CDB. It is important that this is achieved, insofar as ABDB constitutes an important development resource, particularly for nascent Antiguan entrepreneurs, to ensure that the flows of new lending from CDB can proceed normally. - 29 - F. Barbuda 81. Economic activity and employment in Barbuda is concentrated in fishing, followed by agriculture and tourism. In agriculture there appears to be potential for expanding peanut farming, although harvesting wot!ld have to be mechanized because of the small labor force on the island. The Barbuda Council is also interested in obtaining an oil press to take advantage of the coconut acreage on the island. The Government of Antigua and Barbuda one year ago, formed the Barbuda Industrial Development Agency. This agency is composed of a five-member board: three from the Ministry of Economic Development, one from the Barbuda Council and one Parliamentary representative. Since the formation of this Agency, seven hotel projects have been proposed for the island with at least one under construction; restaurants, shops, water-sports, taxis, lobster farming are all about to be implemented, a bank operating daily and a peanut project has been developed. The main infrastructure needs are road rehabilitation and construction, and the upgrading of communications facilities. Delivery of an electric generator, financed by the UK, should result in sufficient electricity generation capacity. - 30 - IV. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM A. Introduction 82. For the third consecutive year, expenditures on public capital projects in Antigua dropped. While some of the explanation for the decline lies in the impact of the drought emergency, some donor disbursements also have been suspended until the Antiguan Government settles outstanding arrears. Clearing of arrears would permit the Government to draw on more concessional financing, however, uncertainty as to when this may occur makes it difficult to outline the composition of the medium-term investment program. In addition, financing and designs for the Deep Bay Hotel project have yet to be finalized. As presently constituted, the public sector investment program 1984-86 stresses economic infrastructure, particularly water supply. The emphasis is appropriate since the lack of an adequate water supply of acceptable quality is a major constraint to economic development in Antigua. The preparation, implementation, and monitoring of the public sector investment program continues to be seriously hampered by staff shortages within the Planning Unit. B. Progress of the Program 1983 Outturn 83. Estimated expenditures on the public sector investment program of Antigua in 1983 totaled EC$20.2 million, equivalent to 5.7% of GDP, less than half of the previous year's expenditures, which in turn had shown a decline compared to the 1981 level. Several new projects which had been expected to begin in 1983 were delayed or dropped. In addition, the need to respond to the drought emergency slowed down implementation of two major water supply projects. The sharp drop in public investment expenditures also resulted from the decision of some donors (for example, the Caribbean Development Bank and the United Kingdom) to withhold financing on new projects and, in some cases, ongoing projects, until the Government of Antigua settles outstanding arrears. The suspension of disbursements meant that 80% of the Antigua investment program was financed with internal funds in 1983, compared to 38% in 1982. This has had the effect of both limiting the size of the capital program and increasing the future domestic debt burden. 84. Only slightly above EC$2 million, 10% of the total program, was disbursed in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector, primarily for the Fisheries Industry Development project. Expenditures on the project were only about half of what had been projected because of the implementation problems already described. About EC$4.6 million was spent on projects in the transportation sector, all locally financed. This included maintenance of about 60 miles of village roads, reconstruction of 2 miles of road (most of it connected to the airport), initial work on an alternate runway, and some equipment for the airport. Over a quarter of the expenditures in the public investment program represented administrative infrastructure, including construction and reconstruction of government buildings and purchases of vehicles and equipment. EC$2.3 million was disbursed from various credit lines, all channeled through the - 31 - Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank (ABDB). About EC$800 thousand was accounted for by CDB disbursements for ABDB equity investment and global credit lines. Most of the rest of the amount was mortgage finance, the funds obtained from domestic commercial bank borrowing by the ABDB. C. Composition of the Medium-Term Program 85. The estimated public sector investment program for 1984-86 amounts to nearly EC$120 million, implying an average share of GDP of 9.8% per annum. This estimate includes only those projects for which financing either has been arranged or is being finalized. In addition, no new projects financed by the CDB are included because presently the Government has made no provision for clearing outstanding arrears (totaling approximately US$1.3 million). Table 11: SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR CAPITAL EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR, 1984-86 Amount X (EC$ '000) (US$ '000) Directly Productive Projects 18,180 6,733 15.3 Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries 12,780 4,733 10.8 Industry 1,475 546 1.2 Tourism 3,925 1,454 3.3 Economic Infrastructure 85,770 31,766 72.3 Transportation 21,563 7,986 18.2 Power Supply 12,264 4,542 10.3 Communications 1,000 370 .8 Water Supply & Sewerage 50,943 18,868 43.0 Social Infrastructure, Administration, and Other 14,673 5,434 12.4 Health 1,673 620 1.4 Education 4,688 1,736 4.0 Housing 49 18 - Administration & Other (includes 8,263 3,060 7.0 global credit lines and land acquisition) TOTAL 118,623 43,933 100.0 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Directly Productive Projects 86. About EC$18 million is estimated to be spent on directly productive projects, accounting for 15% of the total program. In agriculture, the main focus is livestock development. Under the - 32 - USAID-financed livestock improvement project, a livestock specialist will train producers in livestock and pasture management, herd health practices and artificial insemination techniques. During discussions on the project with USAID the Government agreed to review and modify policies concerning land tenure and price controls on meat, areas which have been identified as constraints to increasing production in the sector. The European Development Fund has postponed the major share of a proposed Livestock Improvement Project pending Government action on these two key issues. In the meantime, a Livestock Development Expert will be stationed in Antigua to prepare a comprehensive livestock project. In order to ensure that these two projects are implemented successfully it is critical for the Government to follow through on the planned reforms. 87. The Government of Antigua also is working with the World Food Program on a proposed Agricultural Rehabilitation and Small Farming Development Project. Under the project, food commodities would be provided to participating farmers in order to augment their income. Commodities also would be sold through the Central Marketing Corporation and the sale proceeds used to: a) purchase fertilizer, chemicals, and seeds; b) construct and repair dams and feeder roads; c) purchase irrigation equipment, tractors, tools, and other equipment; d) upgrade extensiot and marketing services; and e) provide credit to farmers. 88. Expenditures to complete the Fisheries Industry Development Project are included in the medium-term program, but disbursements are pending the results of a reassessment of management changes in the company. Projects in the industrial sector are limited to completion of a factory shell extension and construction of one additional shell. In the tourism sector, construction of a guest house in Barbuda has started, financed by the OPEC Fund. It is hoped that work on the reconstruction of the Jabberwock Hotel for use as a hotel training school will commence in 1985. 89. The proposed major Deep Bay tourism project has not been included in the estimates of the medium term investment program because the financing and timing of the project remain to be settled. The project has been scaled down from the original cost of US$90 million to US$46 million. In addition, financing will not be provided by the Bank of Brazil or by Brazilian export supplier credits. Instead a commercial bank syndication is being arranged by a UK bank for a loan to the Government of Antigua, contingent on a loan guarantee by the Italian export credit agency. The components of the revised project are still to be decided. Although the Government would own the hotel, it would be run by private operators through a management company. Given the amount of preparatory work (revised feasibility studies, new designs, etc.) which remains to be done, it is doubtful that the 2-year estimated construction period could start before the end of 1985. Inclusion of half of the projected costs in the 1983-86 investment program would raise total expenditures by about 50%. Economic Infrastructure 90. Economic infrastructure projects dominate the investment program, accounting for nearly three-quarters of estimated expenditure. In transport the priorities are road reconstruction and rehabilitation, using - 33 - both local funds and support provided by the European Development Fund. The program also includes priority equipment needs for the port and the airport. Although some ancilliary airport infrastructure such as roads has been completed, further progress on the Antiguan share of the project has slowed because of shortage of funds. 91. About 40% of the total public investment program for 1984-86 is accounted for by projects in the water supply and sewerage sector. The recent drought, which created an emergency situation during much of 1984 and forced expensive barging of water, makes improvements in water distribution, maintenance, and the efficiency of resource utilization even more critical. In 1984 several donors contributed to an emergency relief fund totaling about US$500,000 which defrayed some of the costs of barging water. The emergency slowed down implementation of two externally financed projects: one, the replacement of the main water pipeline, with funding from Trinidad and Tobago; and two, the rehabilitation and development of groundwater sources, transmission, storage, and treatment facilities, in addition to institutional development of the APUA, funded by USAID. The Antigua Public Utilities Authority is still considering investment in a desalination plant, but no source of financing has been identified. In response to the water shortage, several large hotels have purchased small desalination plants to supply their own needs. The subsequent removal of that demand from the system, in addition to the completion of the two ongoing projects, which will expand potable water production capacity, may make the proposed investment unnecessary. Social Infrastructure and Other 92. Planned expenditures on projects in the area of social infrastructure account for only 12% of the total program. Administration, primarily construction or rehabilitation of Government buildings and the purchase of broadcasting and fire fighting equipment; and the completion of disbursements on CDB credit lines represent 7% of the total investment program. D. Issues in Capital Project Preparation and Implementation 93. The preparation, implementation, and monitoring of the public sector investment program is seriously hampered by the weakness of the Planning Unit. The office is not fully staffed and a chief for the office still has not been named. In addition, the office's responsibilities are not clearly defined so it is not able to exercise the lead role in prepar- ing and monitoring the public sector investment program. As a result, little project preparation or planning is taking place. Almost no project monitoring is done, particularly when implementation is the responsibility of a public enterprise, even if the project is large and externally- financed. Because responsibility for tracking expenditures on capital projects is not centralized, there are wide differences in the estimates made by the Ministry of Finance, the Auditor General, the executing ministeries or public enterprises, and the donor agencies. - 34 - E. Financing the Public Sector Investment Program 94. Mobilization of an estimated EC$118.7 million for the investment program and EC$52.2 for amortization is required during 1984-86. About 80% of the investment program is accounted for by ongoing projects. The share of the program financed by public sector savings is projected to increase; however, given the country's present fiscal difficulties and the heavy amortization and debt service obligations, a positive contribution may only be expected by 1986. This improvement in public sector savings is predicated upon the Government's immediate implementation of a fiscal austerity program that will reduce the growth in current expenditures and introduce measures to improve the performance of the public enterprises. Gross external financing will have to be greater than the needs for the investment program alone because of the amortization requirements on present obligations. Government discussions with a number of lenders with regard to rescheduling service obligations, could reduce immediate amortization requirements. Financing from commercial banks and other domestic sources is estimated to total EC$26.6 million over the period 1983-86. As public sector savings become positive however, domestic financing requirements should decline to zero. - 35 - ANNEX I ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Government's Project and Technical Assistance Lists 1. This annex contains lists of: major ongoing projects; new pro- jects for which external financing will be sought during the period 1983-86 and major ongoing and new technical assistance. Each list contains the name of the project, the lender/donor if identified, the total cost, the external financing obtained or required, the counterpart contribution needed, and the status of project preparation. In addition, there is a list of projects proposed by the Government which need further preparation, including the completion of feasibility studies. 2. Information on technical assistance and the projects, which will be presented to the meeting of the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development scheduled for June, 1985, was provided by the Government of Antigua and Barbuda or estimated by the mission to the country during July 1984. - 36 - ANTI0UA MAD AROUOA - MAJOR ollOlNe PROJECTS ANO SDURCES Of FINMiCIIM (USS00'00 Term& and Coditlos Tatl E,t4rM,I Flnanein L@ocl Flrooelsg Mterest Amrtla.tiam Ores Cost Ansnat loSoar Amount I Rats period Period DIMEC7LT PRUUCTIOV A_rleelltO. Voosetry and Flofterle. flsleriss isd"ety 0asIs_mmt 3604 3411 CDO, cermaey 133 4 4 Is S Ll,tkc l.twrvemet 7n7 530 USAID 257 33 great Ll"stegk 08e"es"t PI`.. I 320 320 EOF Aforifttre Ispet a1VO 11 F"d 8s 'G 100 eat Atetteir CeoRRt lf5t0r 242 242 Pcr. EC Cest,tsole of Ftorp shells S 510 S 1 too Esteemlo. footery 01.4 #I #e 06 U.K. Teot I m EetlisO Harbor Os"topmost Otudy 72 12 CIOA Jebb aresk Metal and TrolRleg 0.1.4 750 7I0 Triolded |brod. fsest Hoeso 370 370 OPEC Fed HIoodi.rft Cost.r m 0so USAID 03 34 o ther A itIPii LIes of CG.41t 0OO S00 COs AM Equity 1ie0.a0t *00 000 Cos OWP0ITO IMFOASTUISI Transportation iopro,st of Vllla, Reads 55d Dealss SOO 3000 100 AlW pot Termi"sl 0Sldin* 10.025 S100 CIDA IS2S Is Geat Port Cargo 14.5I log EaIpesl_t 1,040 1040 CIOA 0r.4t Poesr eepl, Wied Poor Projest SOO 27 COG (USAIDI 20 S wateor toplysad Sterage Islti-00w D_ryeoy P"e 174 470 CIOA. U.S., DD. OP freot Water Sooply txpegsies aI ImOr.vesRt 14,450 0700 USAIO 6,25 Less/S Grent :ater O ltribetie II 7,371 4375 Trinldad 3000 40 .CIAL IIIONT,AM,OT AHiERSTUATi00. A 0THtR C3l dreos Ward loI1.rtoe 0eop1t.1 467 607 100 ICU wal Hrtes Hospitl 71 3 PrIots 03 S0 Idotles Orilons $*"eI 423 303 U.K. 30 7 St. John All Ape Seol 424 n30 USAID 204 45 Oes Ot. Jate Priery S0.0l SuS 30 USAIO 22 2 8 4 IS S Stadent Leos n11 aS us CO He"soe Mortgage le.... 37 370 100 ReeRlImat losdel V111l15 31 51 400 AeisIritrati,s isfrtoreteo. Cearhobeses fhabiIt tl_e 234 210 U.K. 74 23 No Leieia0Io 1111disl 247 2 02 U0. 4O 1 MI4siary I P1esOes 011d1" 147 147 100 Rt.eesr"s.04 of a *"?Met WaldI elg 1000 000 100 Pri5tery 442 442 U.K. veOl,ol., Preao.o. .o OIeistrieo 1,100 7S 11ors I025 93 sdwodses Arol U 100 POte"e of FIre/soeem emd resdes.timp Eqel'o' 1200 1200 Private. erelal *Nor 4-IO1D1 velopment ASIvItIge., leJ2-M 120 120 U*AIO lastesl AIlSItersd Fde. Oft." 100 01o1SO CIOA - 37 - MITi40A AlW - WJS PWOSP NEW PUJECTS A S±AMS cF nFwIOC CUWOIOO) Toem - Ceditlem Tht.l ZElel rimmlin Lel Financn leteet _Atlutlee te Cml d t Seit A t s Rts Perled Period Sb. Aerimioe, Faintrya Fl_,eles gull 11 Sp 0Deeopet gtm tll) D C 4 1 s S Project he be l"eeleebA plopet fIewlwg _ .etlee m tly bieg my tyeersomet. Flelorlee leity Oeel_int (additlmel) no goo 4 Is S Project Is still beieg r,eefI Lieteda l_dmtryO0enlpet 11 on am C 92 le 4 15 5 Linet Develomt Pte 11 No SW lF ret PrJoect hI leg pie pard t temleel Malslbe provided mer rh 1. 1011 VIew,, Irriptlem I (lMmi 0) 1,100 1,000 Ct 100 to 4 15 5 Prefeseibiity lbody ample" Cet - Iei PileotReeereb 161 167 1_em - - Feelllty ebile alIble. Out ad On" Fsimeg ProjSct m m Ueke. PesIblilty A*e e bt Prwome of Agrizlmil bliy MO 3110 Unkm Eplpet r qelnmeta Ientflo& AgimAli*1 8bbh lilbttke bd eil Fwetg DO" I_nt 1 14 w 131 a leeIt ProJect _e a _ed. Iuaftriel E.tate Oseelemat 2380 2XO CI,TT 450 Is 4 is 5 O 4d wil md to b edied Applictlo AItbd to 0. Pr Ipml alsoe bug Prepred for considertil by TnT. C.strwtlm ed C_..i Tl_ Maenfactwe 550 4675 lbeam 505 is r. .lbillt' teb raelIbIs _itlwe iprt of ge"elal A'y. T_eim De by Hotel project 46,0 46.00 Prlvate Releed oblibstel *ehp lejired fi... project be bee meted dal. rlmming _enete still Mt fi.i" Ory IIllI Htdl 3.4 MA0 Prlete Pojeet be bee pIre 4d. bet - fleeml be be _ _fnd Fort Jam. LIe., Ceebt r1.0 so ISO is Project be be _tid to U. Eall* seer Irtr.eotet,Dwowlaemet 3.00 S.CO C134 Pmlbllty body km prewn to ldeetl NW d_elpa poject. Cn4-I1b 0D tCO m 4 IS 5 Catleeetlem of aplig "I_m. - 38 - MITIUA n DA * - Wm 3 PM= 0 PRltCTS ic ISIDU e ilNMCIlB (USSOU) Teom ad Cdltlte Tobl Exterml Flrcleq Lecl F1onoleg lnterest AWtor ti.i Croe. Cost F_t Sowee At * Rol Period Perld Stbt_ _Te llllUllF Airport Nbd erh loy 75D 73 TT Project iw b_ _itted t Gevermat of Trlnidd. Airpert N.lwigtloe Ey.ip_t 560 5O U.K. Ehigmet m_ toe e s.clfled Reeo llooeeetl 2.1) 22.= Es Oro Roedo how e. Identlfifede doeChl_. mods to e de a Whther tbeide ocetroetos or PMD wIlI lmlet project. Pow Sqply EleeWclllty Dlstriotlo. 11 (Tr_lo ai. Ob Ditlbotl.) 4,00 3.s,c Cohl_b I,'m0 5 Projeot pnpfe* d41.cla boing hild with celhle spliers. eter J_1v Domlltho Plant 12.e00 11.400 Prlvth 0o 5 Eqol_pt ad Pi.t spclfle EICL EWK. AilllISRATIO AltO M O Ilulch Ibefo CGelhetlo Eq.l_et SW am UIk. Eqoiplt Identifed oe _bd. Semwy Schoo *t Jeml1 SW Clare Hell l.M l 0 u0 Uotew, U.K. Deblied design repie. _esseet ro NA gmh o1 Sd_h1o 1,=0 I.= UW., UUIO (SU), Eqpolo _o Ulqvdle of VY.tl_le School SS W. U _ Datl led d.lgeos roiref _ OeInnot ho e_ pwehood wnle OAS fudsed. Scbdt Loe IlI 4l 4000 4 IS S Coetineotioe of apng roject. Ahol.tretloe Pr-ject ne O b bo ho t Ext_lm dt Oevernet Worksho iX I U.K. - 39 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PROPOSED NEW PROJECTS REQUIRING ADDITIONAL PREPARATION (US$000) Total Cost Status Clay Bricks and Tile Manufacture 2,118 Feasibility study required. Barbuda Integrated Development 3,333 Idea stage; some preliminary cost estimates. Barbuda Harbor Improvements II 250 Preliminary cost estimates. Water Distribution III 1,500 Project outline and cost estimates prepared. Public Library/Archives St. John 80 Some equipment received from OAS; preliminary costs prepared for additional equipment. Establishment of Cultural Center 350 Preliminary costings prepared. Expansion Holberton Hospital 2,000 Idea stage; preliminary cost estimates prepared. Expansion St. John's Health Center 300 Idea stage; preliminary costings prepared. Renovation Mental Hospital and Institution for the Aged 1,000 Preliminary cost estimates. Construction Government Offices 1,850 Preliminary cost estimates. Construction of Government Officers Quarters 1,500 Idea stage; preliminary cost estimates. - 40 - hNTIWA AM M MA - MOR C6IOIS IECOIICL ASSISTM (Use 000) Tobtl Coot Extbrnl Financing Dwatlen Comont 1. PllJBr-ILAMU Matwsl Resources Aeo_smnt 4X OAS 2 years Startd February 1914, IncludIng agrIcultural em , land uoo plumIng Hotel Training School 194-67 32 W 3 years Training front desk pore u, food prpratlm, restaburnt A bar Coxt. nion) Project Dewivspnt Aaslstenco Project, I, II .. USAID 3 years Innvesnt prontlon, project dnolopwnq project hu extended 118eWS deter. Electrllcty Sector Study 33 u 2 yere aOltributirn Ł nnogmnt study, training IPUA Pre-School Children Services 198144 93 UNICEF Oning UWgrading of dey aore mters' services C facilItlIs Suplemntary FhedIng Vulnerable Groups 80-63 423 IP OngoIng Children. prgnat nd lctating w_n Wind Turbine osnetration (R) SD Ce-TEJ 2 yoars Total coot tZ70 for 3 Ielagd Wind 4 Solar En rgy Study CR) 100 I-TE .. Resource asaeeat_ Total cost 9500 for 5 EC10 countrieo Export Supply I D_eun Study CR) 29 IJCTAWITC/WIS 2 years Total oet MO0 for 17 ceotrlos - Ph. I II. OHM Slo{-Emm1c Pluming 82-16 610 WiP OngoIng Continuatlon of project which cinncad In 11e Civil EnglIerAlter Roeure Managr .. CFCT 3 nenyoers APA Wter Divisd - ceonnd January 1982 Electriael EngInr - M gpr APUA USAIO 3 nnysare AIM EloctrIcIty OlDisIon olrscter Pd.ilc 'wtarb 100 UK-TCO 2 nyeo r Ministry of Pub Ic llorlu - to cnwno IMrch 1983 Rad Engineor .FTC 2 mny9rn Accountfnflrncll Controller .FTC 3 _nyeor AFUA M_cmnial Engineer - Comratlon CFTC 2 maysaro APU - electricity divisIon Education Adir .. CFTC 2 mnyaare CPered Janary 1912; extenslm reweed OD ioapnt Cowrdilter KU-TCO * mero Suparlntent Ielon'c Dockyard - to be mleted August 19h Science Advisr CR) KS IS _lmanthe AUrculture Oeveloprnt nd Trainiag (R) 25 W4/ICCI4 2 years 1190-4 Sell usineae Oevelepnent (Ri sO CIDA Ongoing Total cost $M2 APWr=aji dilbuned pr smnu pr bslane Maritim Training AssIstnc CR) 100 CIDA Ongoing 1912471 Approx. J100 dioureed per _mue per island Canada Tralning A_rde tR) 1000 CIDA 19164 Fellowohipql total cost *7.M0 for all LOCe Weet Indies Training Sch_ 75 LK ogoIng Felliwhipo Civil avIatin training 85 LUP 193245 Fellowship.tralnlg In eircraft minten xlce,air traffic control Vocatlonel Training S UNP/1L. Ongoing AudlovIsll aide nd training e"aimeent 0e_vonnt of Educstlon (R) 166 UIESW Log-tr Sector developnt Skills TraIning Progra (R) 100 5OA Agricultem, Industry Eduetlm, Touril Progrm 235 cm5 Includes cwoultante, nb elosalp, equlpxnt - Tecnlcal Aualtaobn related to Caplitl Projecte Included In th Investmnt progrm his not ben listed - Volunery Techoilcl AssIstac CVS, pea erps) hea not been Included - Shert te workshops and couroes hv been excluded - Selected reglinel progrm hew be Included - .. net avaIlableb net detebrned - CR) Reglonl - 41 - AllTX ) AND SWIA - MIUMR lMW SIOM.lL AStiSTMAE CUS$ '000) Total Extorml Cost Fimenoing Duration Ce_ts I. PROFEcT-AuS Health Sector St* Sector rvlew ldentIlflatli of financial, tacholcal wglsato msede Sow". Wmte Men t .. .. Fiblility siudy Infrastruturete4tl l lties Coordlnetor 2 amyaore Evnluetlon muitorlng of projects & progren Water Resourc Enginer. 2 _nylarn Requirsd for project preparation - AFUA Mloor Minte1nbnn Unit 3 .mnt_he Study of requirmants set up of unit for Ministry of Agricultre leconleel tiuglneer .. CIDA I year Aselsnm In overhaulingt tugt engin Port Authority Port Engilor CIDA I yewr Trainieg of mecanics 0 AM tobm Port Autherity *t CIDA 6 nmunthe Review of Port Aenmistratkon, triff setrcture, etc; Wled & Solar En rgy Reeuros Assesment CR) 95 CR-T .. Total Coat 5050 for Et04 eountrim - 3 phnea almee Asasment CR) 21 t-TEl. Total Cost tlSO for ail LDCa II. 0tlR Lopl Drntta CFTC 3 ynw Selection In progrens CaerrlsiDlav aopinb et I year Advisr In mthemtics required Hdioenft Specialist R) . ECS-CffTC I year Cultural DOvenopnt Offler .. I year Required for cultal rltrIevai/dvealopmnt progrm Indestrial Acometcy 9 UttlDO Shirt-term can Itaney Training progrsm bErgy Coservatien CR) 5 Utt Devleio_nt of nerg-saving device for hotel Inustry Noteb - TebnIcal asistenc nelated to capital projects Included In the Investnnt Progrm ha not be listed - Volratary- tbelrll easslatamo (M. pecorpe) ts not been Included - Short term worksihops sad cmre how teen excluded - Selectd regional prsn hlvw t em Inclded - .. notal lbis, not detmlmn ed - CR) RegIal ANNEX II Page 1 of 5 - 42- ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Macroeconomic Projections 1. To evaluate the prospects and policy considerations for the economy of Antigua and Barbuda, economic projections of key macroeconomic variables were made for the period 1984 to 1995. The analysis focused upon national income variables, balance of payments and public sector finances, together with appropriate indicator ratios. The assumptions and policy initiatives supporting these projections are detailed below. Overall Growth 2. Slowing economic growth since 1980, the drought in 1984 and economic conditions in CARICOM portend a difficult transformation phase for the economy over the next three years. The speed with which this transformation occurs is dependent on continued international economic recovery, success in extra regional export markets and improvements in public finances that will ensure a sound public sector investment program for the future. 3. Agricultural output is expected to decline by 10% in 1984 as a result of the drought, with the consequent livestock losses and poor crop yields. Further, it is assumed that rehabilitation will not be immediate such that growth will be 3.5% in 1985. Beyond this year, however, with appropriate Government policies that encourage livestock and fruit and vegetable production, the sector is projected to grow by 5% per annum. 4. Manufacturing is projected to decline by 4% in 1984 as a result of problems in the CARICOM market. Future growth prospects are brighter however, as a result of two new Hong Kong garment ventures and further enclave activity to serve extra regional markets. Hence the projections assume a 6% annual growth rate from 1985 on. 5. Tourism recorded healthy growth in 1983 and 1984, and indications are that this growth will continue in the immediate future as a result of the opening of the St. James Club and other private sector expansions. The Deep Bay project is not assumed to proceed in the immediate future; however, the likelihood of some progress by 1990 is high. In consequence growth is projected at 10% for 1985 and 7 to 8% thereafter. 6. Trade and other services are presumed to grow in line with the overall growth in GDP, although in the latter category, some moderation in growth is factored in to reflect moderation in the growth of Government services. As a result, "other services" reflect an approximate 2% per annum growth rate. 43 - ANNEX II Page 2 of 5 7. Construction activities in Antigua and Barbuda are strongly influenced by developments in the tourist sector. Further, in the past the sector has experienced a cyclical pattern over a four year cycle. Both factors have been incorporated into the sectors output projections such that average annual growth over the 1985 to 95 period is 4.8%. Savings-Investment Gap 8. In the past domestic savings have been low, requiring considerable external resources to meet investment needs. The projections assume that Government policies will be introduced that will allow for substantial increases in domestic savings. In particular, growth in public consumption is constrained to 70% of the growth rate of GDP and private consumption to 95%, throughout the projection period. This will allow for an approximate increase of 2.3% per annum in per capita consumption. 9. Given the present fiscal difficulties, the share of public sector investment in total investment is projected to remain constant at around 28% until 1990. Thereafter the share is projected to increase slightly to about 31% of total investment. The saving-investment gap is projected to narrow continually from 1985 on, such that national savings will be 18.6% of GDP in 1995 as compared to 13% in 1983. Public Sector Finances 10. Public sector finances should be expected to improve in the medium to long term, but this will require substantial adjustment and fiscal prudence over the 3 year period up to 1987. The projections have therefore assumed that current expenditure in 1984 remains the same as 1983 in nominal terms, and that there is no change in real terms up till 1987. Current revenue, on the other hand, with the institution of additional tax measures, including reintroduction of a personal income tax, is projected to increase (in nominal terms) by 12% per annum over the same period. After 1987 these revenues are projected to increase by 10% per annum. As a result of these assumptions central government savings should become positive in 1987 and reach 5.0% of GDP by 1995. Also, under this scenario, it will be possible for the Government not to have to access the domestic banking sector for resources by 1988. Finally, given these improvements the total debt to GDP ratio should decline from a high of 59.4% in 1984 to 48.0% in 1995. External Sector 11. The current account of the balance of payments is expected to improve from -12% in 1984 to -10% in 1995. Exports are projected to increase by approximately 6% per annum in real terms, led by the strong predicted growth in tourism receipts. Growth in manufacturing exports is projected to be moderate in 1985 as the sector reorients toward extra regional markets, but should grow by about 6% per annum thereafter. 44 ANNEX II Page 3 of 5 Imports are expected to grow at about 5% per annum, with fuel imports restrained to 85% of GDP growth and food imports to grow at the same rate as consumption. Manufactures however, are expected to grow somewhat faster than the rate of GDP growth. It will be noted that the current account of the balance of payments improves substantially up to 1988, and then deteriorates but not to the levels of 1984. The reasons for this are twofold. First, beyond 1988, fuel price rises are expected to accelerate. Second, given the Government's fiscal difficulties, there will be some restraint in the growth of the public sector investment program, with a consequent dampening influence on imports. This factor should not be so relevant after 1988 following a three year austerity program. - 4 5 - mm I ftp4 of 5 MTIVM N &VAG - ia60ttc EtTltff (Reel m1ss In 1277 prims. lewls go 1E0 sille eept 3w 3W 1 UPO *1 Ila ede.th r. t. " per.ent 2la 1SO t24 23IS ism 27 193 1i3 IffO I1 132 INS 134 Is7 3W (facter o26 AqrimIaIt 13.3 13.0 o .3 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.2 17.0 i71 2.7 40.7 3A 22.7 3A Iefetaeieg 143 IIA ItJ 121 0 2 12.J lD 14 3 t4 I. 26 o 270 160 10.2 3 a3 212 Cm.trhtle 14.3 14.0 143 2.2 25.7 26.4 11n 17.7 14.4 7U3 Z 3 3.1 Z7 a n3.4 Tr.epehrt A Ct4b tle 41A 43.7 45.4 473 48f 51.1 33.2 3ss 57.5 1J 62.2 64.7 a73 70.0 Tn46 21A 15.4 0.2 19.5 3.1 223 2.4 Di 243 2.2 zJ 2 27.2 33 3. Hotels a ftast2.7 3i 322J 36.1 S3 41J 44.2 473 3A 54.1 s73 623 33 70J Othr Servyig 6.7 u32 30 72.0 72.4 n4 MA.4 77nJ 13 0.2 n .7 644 U* 673 4 TOTAL M2 A 210 373 216.3 3.03 224.2 243A 32 34.12 275 MA M3.7 3224 37J l oOwrb 2.1 2.7 33 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.1 4. 4.2 4 4.2 4.2 4 3 4.3 O3 Wintwer I4.J 2N. 2543 1663 215 1233 Z5A 2F2.0 245WJ 3 21G3 323 30.4 33D 3w 20664 32.2 30A 319J 36.4 433 463.4 sZJ 3.32 60 7243 32.7 1z74 MAJ 2 02.5 OW 4rk.t primal Z53 237 24s.4 2S.1 3116.4 37.2 21.4 30.2 S22 3233 36 33A 3M.7 3643 TO1 Ajt04_t *3.7 63 6.3 '03 2 1123 213 10.4 6.4 73 6.1 4.7 35 I2 tm 213 2644 253J 2e7.0 mJ1 2*.4 226.7 3203 322.0 332J 4f.4 363 5n72 u33 Expwtb 23 125.2 23.7 1403 150.7 3.7 12.Z 23 2603 M2I.4 212.4 36.2 226 I2R ct lqy to Iq.t 23235 232 2 153 2 23 171U 0 I2O.6 2NA 2A.4 211n.7 2203 J 2623 Z lerbt 23.1 263J 233 277. 2653 2043 M43 214.7 MA3 Z79 230J 33 m6 321A T7.b4 E(o2 lt3 1 333 275.4 X4.0 233.4 321.5 3123 .7 3J A 36.2 32.4 375.1 36.2 4*3 43.2 ie.eeOmt 119.2 33 703 73A 75A 73.5 41.4 643 673 02.5 3.4 MA3 204.2 1.2 4*11. 24.4 233 3.4 3 22.1 22.7 253 33 27.7 33 30. 31.4 3J7 24.2 Pr2b 15.2 s4.7 3.4 44 543 3A NA 5755 3.2 42A 053 3.3 72J 71. C-_eee 2363 37.2 213.2 2203 333 2333 242.3 252.1 260.3 2363 230.0 303 323 3723 PHIIC 3i 55J PA 33 97. 39.4 61.2 52J 64.7 65C 153 70A 72.1 743 PF1.41 23S.2 233A 2NA.4 2623 2030 174.4 14. 1.2 233 5 233 s3 227.4 2203 33 236.2 03c.4 Sallve 3ZJ 3A.4 33. NA 4036 43 0.2 0.1 sZ3 ssJ R3 065 42 712 ar IeOr.e o"lm -72 -49 -IZ .3 -7.4 -79 -5.4 t.0 53 43 -SJ *.7 41. -7.J trees. 33 22.7 23.1 22A.4 3.7 403 263 4.7 ItJ 20A.4 3.2 43 n7J 17.7 Nailsl s.24mg 40.2 473 42.2 44.7 s33 Si3 60.2 42 GSA 61 711 7414 73 65.2 Egart PrIj,etlm =-e.CeS 122 2I3 223 11.7 12.4 2.1 23J 14.7 45 1263 27.5 263 2.7 23J AprI.el lt 13 43 43 23 1.2 23 .2 13 2.4 23 23 23 13 23 Olh 7.4 23 2.7 23 13 23 2.0 2.2 23 2. 25 23 2.7 23 Thti I 1_teinelle7 223 443 43 24J 3 153 403 273 103 I03 34 223 3 J 243 3Z IIfeefter let e 3A.4 313 24.7 NA 403 42J 4f3 4t.2 31.2 4.2 37.4 MA 6I4J 0.4 Total EIwrt 60.4 40. 40.4 52.0 St. *3 627 36.4 70.4 743 73.0 "A3 . 04.2 Eprt Prlr Inlda" _SIb. . 13t 1114S3 I413 t7n7 34.7 233.2 243.2 .4 2A7.2 a23.7 3123 6 303 370J Aglroitr 133 23.3 In33 s 33 244A WJ 3 3632 3sa 7st 3 403 433a 402.4 4n2.1 04r t13J 1t03 2723 2 673 34.7 33.2 24n4433 3 277.2 23.7 2123 333. 34 31703 TeteI Nwraeli lsa 73 2s33 273 2603 273 nA4 2470 363 23t 200.l 3S.2 36 7J 373 31.3 eSer viao 2703 t7o.1 4IN.4 222.2 227j 3230 274.7 2353 3233 222.7 3.J 332.7 MS.J 4263 Totl hpErtb 6SSJ 163t 4O0.4 23 224J 3 260 267.1 373 34A 323.2 423 337 J .0 4et.2 E.prb l(mirt iwnlum) 05 tured, 213 203 11.4 Zia 33 3132 2N2 3ss3 433 OA S43 e 2.4 A 77.1 Agriel_ 23 23 i7 23 2.7 3.2 3.7 4J 5.0 54 A.4 73 Z .1 1.1 03r 1122 2.7 23 33 33 4.4 5.0 33 63. 7.0 7.7 ,3 S2 20.7 Total Ibrohel S44 M4.4 743 2nJ 323 36 42.4 44.4 543 143 3NJ 771 N3 073 _m ter sar1vmg 43 603 332 7WA 3 233 2223 t442.4 40 e 3A 3e3 373 NSA 363 Tdtcl Irt UJ 54. 3232 207.2 IA.4 144J 243.4 I2J 214J 241.2 173 36.2 242.7 333 lept PIojetItl Pee 703 23.2 53 23 .4 253 l46 173 27.7 nJ 3 2e0 49.7 3.4 2t2 M3 Pels 223 40.4 lo2 72.2 4l2 223 723 12J 133 1SA 24.2 243 2s5 2s. _oee0.o6 313 33 33D 223 22.3 24. 33 xi 273 33 3.7 92 33DJ N iw2*4ry A Trame. EqIp. n4A 20.4 703 723 223 233 243 253 27. n63 3. 22.7 3A 3a ot027 4.2 1. 532 .4 53 S 4.2 4.4 63 43 72 7J 730 62 Tata_l br 'Ioe. 47.4 Si J A M3 NJ 3 n 1J 73 33 63. eJ 73 %.3 2023J 1017.2 rofete tOer,i30 0.2 eJ 03 0 0.4 0.4 0.4 o0 o0 03 0.6 0eJ 03 030 Total l_rte 473 Si 62 463 OA 7n2 3 703 nJ 43A 573 J 0.4 n 73 2603 I3A - 46 - Pap 5 of 5 A6TI24A AND Wl3. - II3IIC .004CT1 (libe ulas 1. 177 pio. I wl. I. 4 II la wspt hr aW In US$ lII 1. 11 grat ratb. - Pernt) 192 2943 194 1793 t9 137 193 79 190 191 132 1393 194 In$5 I4rt Prim Irlis F-. 170.2 172.7 It.5 143 213.1J 3.2 2s .7 264 313.0 234 o.4 333.4 410 43.0 FP.1 170.2 172.7 12.7 11.7 MA. 219A 361 A 3 2D.0 32. MIA 34.0 34.4 42.4 471.2 Hurfasturce 170.2 172.7 0.4 12.7 210.0 2B 2263 20.2 342 301.4 31 333 331 3D03J I.lo9ry I Trust. Eqplp. 1703 172.7 170.4 192.7 210.0 25 2a4 s 3.2 343 3D0.4 319J 33 3J 363J Ot1 170.2 172.7 170. 192.7 210.0 23J 2tt.5 2.2 2343 301.4 31913 . 331 MO30 Tot al Wor.6e.i46 170. 172.7 179.4 1912 33.2 Z 33 20.3 V713 3230 11J 333.1 NSA 0.0 tOS4 Kafeot r S."Im, 170W 172.7 17M 192.7 210.0 233 23 s 2a.2 23J 301.4 319J 33. 3339 343 TOtal oartn 1703 172.7 170.4 191.2 23 22331 J 33 271.5 :13t 311. 3m3 .7 379J 433 1.art. (rwrt m"In) Fad 27.2 22 3.0 30.0 34. 3D.7 44.1 13 07*3 63A 70J 7.4 T 7.0 96.7 FPlt 3.1 It 1O 0 23.2 2.0 3.1 3.7 339 31.5 433 0.8 S7.0 45.0 74.1 ilsonfat_oo, 37J 343 3732 423 493 53 63.1 71.1 7t.1 3.1 38.0 1492 121.6 135 tchimy A Tr_r. Equip. 24.7 173 I 9t 22.2 3.2 33J 3.4 42 611 3S 94.1 73nJ 4.7 Y 73 Ottrw 103 8.7 93 1I9 11.9 133 S 03 17.1 21 20J3 233 25.4 2.1 *1.0 Tot l t._lernd 13.4 1t1.1 1IIJ 125.2 243J 16443 1It 214 232.4 mJ2.1 31.7 3433 34.4 4tJ3 4at r StroIbe 0.2 03 O S OA O 0i 1.1 J3 IS 1.0 2.1 2.4 2 3*3 Total lWet. 13. 101t3 112.4 7J 03 144.0 133 133J 2105 U343 273J 307.7 346.0 3lt.2 43. E.art 42A.4 A. 92.2 10.1 125.4 1443 167.4 A 1i 214J 241.0 20.7 34.1 341.7 313 I_bwk 233S 1013 112A 1253 144.0 165i I3 D59J 3633 2733 37.7 340 3O3.2 43.0 6.amw ._Orl_ -S3 -16J -20J -10.7 -18S -20J-31 33 -2.2 -23.t -323 -37.0 -41A -473 -4.2 Nlt P.01r 1113m -23 -2.7 43 -S.7 - S.0 43 -4.1 5.1 -4J 4.1 -SJ -73 -7.0 43 ltareat Pul.0 Det 43 332 6.4 0.4 03 0. 43 4.7 03 .7 6SJ 6.S 7.4 6.2 0t07t 03 O3 -OJ -OJ3 O -0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.4 .4 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -OJ Trsdf 11.2 12.0 122 133 13.0 14. 1J3 I7.) 2EJ 17.7 113 S 219.3 21J Cmrmt Amount c W -_J -71 -143 -11.2 4J.7 -11 -11.0 143 -17.3 -213 -243 -33 -34.0 -413 Not P402l6 Caltsi 7.1 2J 203 703 93 6.1 9.2 10.0 0.7 11.4 12.2 123 13.7 144 gr_t 1.0 13 2o 1.0 1..023 03 0. 0.3 03 03 03 03 OJ LmE Ol_wrt 92 Si 17J 22D 13.4 IS2 753 16.7 15.1 20.7 25J 273 MA 31M 6. la.ti 3.1 53 83 73 53 632 S 73 7J 122 23J 15.1 143 17J Prints C itl l(alt 42J 4.5 4J -4.0 03 3.4 I3 43 6.1 0.0 12.t IS 6 0J3 23 Orall alios 0.4 -O4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 030 0.0 0.0 4.0 03 03 .0 0.1 VW(- -403 -4 -123 -.4 4.4 -.7 -S3 4 -7.2 4.0 J3 4.1 43 -10.4 *.C Z2 63A7I0 C.trI lGO_r_. t Carpet t.33. 23.9 277 XJ IOO 1144 In.7 1472 194.7 2UJ 3 W.7 221.7 2443 270J. 233 Texa NJ 3.1 3o 75.7 SJ 073 110.4 13 23. 2 63IS3 1Ns 832.7 33.0 n24.4 _aIc_... 24.0 2J.7 213 2530 233 3D.4 33 42 404 50J 35.4 623 07.7 74J CGrret E_PWI_W 112.1 110.1 1103 224A II28 12.2 2363 7403 15.1 2723 13.4 4.7 2253 243 M.p _d tUrles 44.1 0.4 30.4 t .4 543 3.2 3.4 653 713 70.6 803 933 101 A IIQA oa MM nervices ZJ MA 23. 0 303 36. 3.7 33 32.1 3.0 31 42.7 43J 45J 54J Obrw 42.4 3.7 3J 3.4 MA 41 J 43J 45.1 023 07J 62J 3 74.4 SI3 Catral Oema,t lisgs -19.2 -223 -0.4 -13.7. -4.4 03 65.3 IA 22J.7 23 32 33. 45.1 SJ3 State Eat.rorise Savlgs 173.1 O 13.0 137 14.1 14.7 1IS 152i 126 27J 3 ID 26.7 29 20.4 Capit.2 r9.44r6c 42J 15.1 1.4 43 3J.4 4a0 55 61A 3. 75.3 8.1 S91 1t13S 112.2 0.Oar1 0d.idt -47.4 -3.1 -3.1 6.1 -3.7 -25J. -343 -27.0 -33 -30J -32A -343 -35.7 -3J Ealarel fleasIng 21.4 7D 2DJ 4123 6.7 21A 24J 27.0 MA 33 323 343 MA 31 Oesle Plelps SJ 37 22.0 63* 4.0 2.0 0D 0.0 0.0 9.0 OD 03 0. 0.0 7.te. 094t *J *1.0 7le *4 2.7 3.7 1023.4 117. 123.1 23.0 10.7 163.1 173.2 190.2 P4It Seetor .p6ge 43 -7.4 *44 -33 -1.1 7.4 2J 53J 23 3 4.1 4.4 4.7 5D Stat. (abtrpri boIn_ 4J 2J 4.1 33 33 3J 23 2.7 2J 2.4 23 2.1 2. IJ Cornet 6 . 3139 3J3 M.1 A 33 3.0 3A 33 o 3 3.0 3.0 32 33 3A. 3.0 DSmt. Swip IlI 12. 13.1 142 243 14. 493 60.0 16 S 26. 17.1 17J 1727 IlSJ I2 1_.wat 30J MA 33 3A 3.4 3J 32 33 3.1 3.1 3.1 33 3.3 MA D.bt ervltapmw.r *JS 10.4 15J 123 6.4 4.0 6.7 63 6.1 7.7 7.4 7J 6*J 6 T.SU 0.90.03 323 DD 3.4 4J 6CI2 3.l 3.7 54.1 55J 52.4 02.4 517J 43.0 - 47 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table of Contents Table No. Page I. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE 1.1 Population Trends .............................49 1.2 Labor Force Statistics .................... ....... 50 1.3 Employed Labor Force by Sector ............................. 51 1.4 Government Employees . .............................. . ..... ....... . 52 1.5 Hourly Wage Rates in Selected Occupations ...................... 53 II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 2.1 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Constant Factor Cost ................... 54 2.2 National Accounts, 1979-83 ..... . ........ .... .... .....*... 55 2.3 Sources and Uses of Resources at Constant Market Prices, 1979-83 . 56 2.4 Actual and Projected Sources and Uses of Resources, 1982-87 ...... 57 III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 3.1 Balance of Payments ..... . .......................... 58 3.2 Value of Exports by S.I.T.C. Section ........ ... 59 3.3 Value of Imports by S.I.T.C. Section .... 60 3.4 Terms of Trade . 61 IV. EXTERNAL DEBT 4.1 Medium- and Long-term External Debt by the Type of Lender, Maturity Structure, and Terms ............ ... 62 V. PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES 5.1 Consolidated Operations of the Public Sectore....r....... 63 5.2 Central Government Operations ................. 69 5.3 Central Government Revenue .... ... 70 5.4 Central Government Current Expenditure ...... ........ 71 5.5 Distribution of Bonded Debt ........................... . ......... . 72 5.6 Central Government Foreign Assets .......... 73 5.7 Public Sector Capital Expenditures, 1983-86 .................. 74 5.8 Estimated and Projected Financing of Public Sector Investment, 1982-86 ................................................ 76 - 48 - Table No. Page VI. MONEY AND BANKING 6.1 East Caribbean Currency Authority .... ........................... 77 6.2 Commercial Bank Operations ...... .. ... . ........ ....... 78 6.3 Distribution of Commercial Bank Loans and Advances to the Private Sector ......... . . ........... ._._ .. ....... . ...... . 79 6.4 Commercial Bank Interest Rate Ranges *o***oo* .......... .... 80 6.5 Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank ............_................ 81 VII. AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY AND TOURISM 7.1 Agricultural Production ........ _. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . .. .. ...... ...... ..... 82 7.2 Selected Industrial Production ...... e...-........ 83 7.3 Electricity Generation and Electricity Rates 000-0-0 84 7.4 Selected Tourism Statistics . ............... 85 7.5 Monthly Stay-over Tourist Arrivals by Air ... o............ 86 7.6 Tourist Accommodation Accommodation Capacity .....o ...... o ..... 87 7.7 Tourism - Stayover and Cruise-ship Arrivals as a share of the Caribbean Area ._ . ..........-. . ... ... .... ........ 88 VIII. PRICES 8.1 Cost of Living Index ...................... ................ 89 8.2 Retail Prices of Petroleum Products ........................-.... 90 - 49 - Table 1.1s ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - POPULATION TRENDS Es t. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total midyear population 72,451 73,245 74,260 75,235 76,224 77,226 78,241 Crude birth rate (per thousand) 19.9 18.3 18.8 16.0 15.4 14.9 14.6 Crude death rate (per thousand) 6.8 5.5 6.3 5.1 4.9 5.5 5.2 Rats of natural Increase (per thousand) 13.1 2.8 12.5 10.9 10.5 9.4 9.3 Total births 1,429 1,342 1,397 1,201 1,177 1,152 1,145 Total deaths 489 402 469 387 377 426 420 Natural population Increase 940 940 928 814 BOO 726 725 Not population Increase, midyear to midyear 1,031 890 1,020 975 1,086 1,002 1,015 Not population Increaso, as per cent of total 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 Sourcess Ministry of Finance (Statistics Dlvielon) and staff estimates. - 50 - Table 1.2: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: LABOR FORCE STATISTICS Prel. Est. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 Population, 16 years and over 47,854 49,329 50,643 52,139 53,504 54,207 Labor force 26,767 27,592 28,378 29,229 30,029 30,424 Employed (21,306) (22,028) (22,491) (23,159) (23,777) (24,096) Unemployed (5,461) (5,564) (5,887) (6,070) (6,252) (6,328) Labor force as a per cent of population, 16 years and over 55.9 55.9 56.0 56.1 56.1 56.1 Employed as a percent of labor force 79.60 79.83 79.26 79.20 79.18 79.20 Unemployed as a percent of labor force 20.40 20.17 20.74 20.80 20.82 20.80 Sourcest Ministry of Labor, Labor Department, and staff estimates. - 51 - Table 1.3: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - EMPLOYED LABOR FORCE BY SECTOR 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Total 20,233 21,306 22,028 22,491 23,222 Agriculture, livestock, and flahing 2,366 2,099 2,092 2,092 2,090 Mining and quarrying 26 71 75 68 60 Manufacturing 1,355 1,447 1,539 1,619 1,718 Electricity, gas, and water 392 392 319 337 340 Construction 2,044 2,369 2,476 2,564 2,577 Distributive trade, Including hotela and restaurants 3,866 4,571 4,867 5,038 5,201 Transport, storage, and communicatlons 2,294 2,427 2,596 2,564 2,575 Finance, banking, and business services 864 699 742 765 778 Other services 7,026 7,231 7,322 7,444 7,883 (As percent of total) Totsl 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture, livestock, and flhing 11.7 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.0 Mining and quarrying 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Manufacturlng 6.7 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 Electricity, gas, and water 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 Construction 10.1 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.1 Distributive trade, Including hotels and restaurants 19.1 21.5 22.1 22.4 22.4 Transport, storage, and communications 11.3 11.4 11.8 11.4 11.1 Finance, banking, and business services 4.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 Other services 34.7 33.9 33.2 33.1 33.8 Sources: Labor Department, MInistry of Labor, HousIng, Insurance and Cooperatives; and IMF staff estimates. - 52 - Table 1.4s ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~st 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 (Number of persons) Total number of employees 5,741 5,843 5,910 6,698 6,929 7,220 Establishod employees 2,528 2,565 2,602 2,633 2,670 2,710 Uneatablished employees a/ 2,313 2,347 2,387 3,185 3,344 3,550 Statutory board employees 900 931 921 880 975 960 (E C) Average annual salary per employee Establishod employees 4,693 5,634 7,229 7,336 7,442 9,042 UnsstabilIhed employees a/ 4,088 4,908 6,297 6,390 6,483 7,864 Statutory board employees b. ... 5,092 6,275 7,592 ... -/ Pertly temporary workers. b/ Wages of more than half of statutory board employees are determined by negotiatIons wIth labor unions. Sourcess Labor Dopartment, Social Socurity; and iMF staff estimates. - 53 - Table 1.5. ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - HOURLY WAGE RATES IN SELECTED OCCUPATIONS (EC$) 1977 2978 1979 1980 1981 1982 '1 1983 s/ Occupation: Grade A Carpsnters ) max. 4.10 4.10 ... 4.50 4.70 6.25 8.40 Steel benders ) mIn. 2.82 2.82 2.55 2.55 2.70 Electricians Grade B Tin Smith$ PaIntors ) mOx. 3.76 3.76 ... 3.42 3.66 5.05 Wolders ) mn. 2.35 2.55 2.35 2.35 2.59 Fabricators Laborer. ) max. ... 2.40 ... 3.41 3.65 4.50 5.35 miII. 1.63 1.63 1.68 1.68 1.85 1.90 2.40 Laborer. ) max. ... 2.54 ... 3.59 3.84 5.28 7.08 Foremen ) mln. 2.40 2.40 2.19 2.19 2.41 5.30 DrIvors of heavy-duty ) max. ... 4.21 ... 5.47 5.85 8.25 equipment ) mln. 3.90 3.90 4.21 4.21 4.40 6.40 ... 3.40 3.60 4.96 ) min. 1.90 ... 2.04 2.40 2.64 Legal minimum wage range, all categories ... ... ... 1.12-3.15 1.25-3.50 a, Private only. Sources: Minlatry of Finance (Statistics Division); and MInistry of Labor. - 54 - Table 2.1s ANTIGUA AND BARBUOAa SECTORAL ORIIN OF GDP AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST Proj. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (1977 EC$ million) GDP at Factor Cost 172.2 185.7 193.2 198.5 200.6 207.3 Agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing 13.9 13.9 12.4 13.3 15.0 13.5 Mining and quarrying 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Manufacturing 9.6 11.4 13.9 13.9 11.8 11.3 Constructlon 11.6 13.1 14.4 14.3 14.0 14.6 Electricity and water 5.7 6.1 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.1 Transport & communications 33.5 37.2 40.3 41.8 43.7 45.4 Troad 19.7 20.6 20.6 21.6 18.4 19.1 Hotels and restaurants 24.2 25.9 25.9 25.7 28.5 32.8 Banking 12.2 13.9 14.9 15.9 15.9 16.2 Ownership of dwellings 20.1 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.2 22.6 Government services 19.9 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.8 Other services 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.7 Leoss Imputed banking service charges -7.8 -9.1 -10.0 -10.7 -10.7 -10.9 (Annual porecntage change) GOP at Factor Cost 6.6 7.8 4.0 2.7 1.1 3.3 Agriculture, livestock, forestry, and fishing -20.6 - -10.8 7.3 12.8 -10.0 Mining and quarrying 80.0 33.3 -8.3 - - - Manufacturing 15.7 18.6 21.9 - -15.1 -4.2 Construction 10.5 12.9 9.9 -0.7 -2.1 4.3 ElectrIcity and water -1.7 7.0 13.1 7.2 6.8 2.5 Transport & communications 16.7 11.0 8.3 3.7 4.5 3.9 Trade 8.8 4.6 - 4.9 -14.8 3.8 Hotels and restaurants 15.8 7.0 - -0.8 10.9 15.1 Banking 9.9 13.9 7.2 6.7 - 1.9 Ownership of dweillngs 3.1 2.0 3.4 3.3 1.4 1.8 Government services 1.0 10.6 1.8 2.2 1.7 2.1 Other services 6.1 3.4 2.2 2.2 1.1 2.1 Lesst Imputod banking aervice charges 8.3 16.7 9.9 7.0 - 1.9 Sources MInIstry of Flnance (Statistics Divilon); ECCM SocretarIat; and stoff eatimatas. - 55 - Table 2.2s ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAS NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, 1979-83 (EC$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Consumptlon expenditure 214.8 260.3 295.5 334.0 305.1 Private 167.0 203.2 227.3 255.3 221.0 Consolidated public sector 47.8 57.1 68.2 78.7 84.1 Gross domestic Investment 88.5 115.8 169.4 175.8 101.8 Private sector 56.3 91.7 119.1 140.0 81.6 Consolidated public sector 32.2 24.1 50.3 35.8 20.2 Gross domestic expenditure 303.3 376.1 464.9 509.8 406.9 Exports of goods and nonfactor services 136.9 196.8 229.5 223.8 229.2 Importa of goods and nonfactor services 206.0 292.1 375.6 387.7 282.2 GOP at morket prices 234.2 280.8 318.8 345.9 353.9 Minus: Indirect taxes not of subsidles 32.7 40.6 48.6 54.7 54.3 GOP at factor cost 201.5 240.2 270.2 291.2 299.6 Net fector Income payments abroad 4.9 5.7 5.7 1.6 2.9 GNP at current factor cost 196.6 234.5 264.5 289.6 296.7 Sourcos: MInistry of Economic Development, Tourism, and Energy; Ministry of Finance; IMF staff; and mission estimates. - 56 - Table 2.3t ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - SOURCES AND USES OF RESOURCES AT CONSTANT MARKET PRICES, 1979-83 (ECs MIIIIon- 1977 prIces) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Gross Domestic Product 200.2 217.7 227.7 235.3 237.5 Imports of goods and nonfactor sorvices 163.5 190.8 222.2 228.1 163.1 Exports of goods and nonfactor services 119.0 144.7 147.1 135.2 125.2 Consumption 169.1 174.1 181.8 208.6 207.1 Consolidated pubiic sector 40.9 44.3 48.7 53.5 56.5 Private sector 128.2 129.8 133.1 155.1 150.6 Investment 75.6 89.7 121.0 119.6 68 .3 Consolidated pubilc sector 31.1 18.6 35.9 24.4 13.6 Private sector 48.1 71.1 85.1 95.2 54.7 Gross National Savings 37.8 43.6 45.9 26.7 30.4 Consolidated public sector 1.0 1.0 4.1 4.1 -9.1 Private sector 30.1 42.6 41.8 30.8 39.5 Memorandum toms Investment Financing 75.6 89.7 121.0 119.6 68.3 National savings 31.1 43.6 45.9 26.7 30.4 Current account balance of payments 44.5 46.1 75.1 92.9 37.9 (As percentage of GOP at market prices) Gross Domestic Investment 37.8 41.2 53.1 50.8 28.8 Private 24.0 32.7 37.4 40.4 23.1 Public 13.7 8.5 15.7 10.4 5.7 Gross National Savings 15.5 20.0 20.2 11.3 12.8 Privat. 15.0 19.6 18.4 13.0 16.6 Pub I Ic 0.5 0.4 1.8 -1.7 -3.8 Current Account Balance of Payments 22.2 21.2 33.0 39.5 16.0 Sources: Ministry of Economic Development, Tourism and Energyl Ministry of Finance; IMF staffl and mlslon estimates. - 57 - Tables 2.4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED SOURCES AND USES OF RESOURCES, 1982-87 (ECs million - 1977 prices) Projected 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Gross Domestic Product 235.3 237.5 245.4 256.1 266.4 277.1 Imports (including NFS) '/ 228.1 163.1 169.3 177.7 185.9 194.9 Exports (including NFS) a/ 135.2 125.2 130.7 140.3 150.7 159.7 Consumptlon 208.6 206.1 213.2 219.6 225.8 233.8 Public sector b/ 53.5 56.5 57.8 57.8 57.8 59.4 Private sector 155.1 150.6 155.4 161.8 168.0 174.4 Investment 119.6 68.3 70.8 73.8 75.8 78.5 Consolidated public sector 24.4 13.6 13.9 24.0 21.1 22.7 Private sector 95.2 54.7 56.9 49.8 54.6 55.8 Gross domestic savings 26.7 30.4 32.2 36.5 40.6 43.3 Consolidated public sector -4.1 -9.1 -4.8 -0.1 5.4 10.7 Private sector 30.8 39.5 37.0 36.6 35.2 32.6 Memorandum Items Investment financing 119.6 68.3 70.8 73.8 75.8 78.5 National savings 29.6 54.5 42.2 48.6 53.8 55.3 Current account balance 90.0 13.8 26.6 25.2 22.0 23.2 (As S of GOP) Gross Domestic Product 100 100 100 100 100 100 Resource balance 39.5 16.0 15.7 14.6 13.2 12.7 Imports (including NFS) 96.9 68.7 68.9 69.4 69.7 70.3 Exports (Including NFS) 57.5 52.7 53.2 54.8 56.5 57.6 Consumption 88.6 87.8 86.9 85.7 84.8 84.4 PubiIc sector b/ 22.7 23.8 23.6 22.6 21.7 21.4 Private sector 65.9 63.4 53.2 54.8 56.5 57.6 Investment 50.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 Consolidated public sector 10.4 5.7 5.7 9.3 7.9 8.2 PrIvato sector 40.4 23.1 23.2 19.4 20.5 20.1 Gross domestic savings 11.3 12.8 13.1 14.3 15.2 15.7 Consolidated public sector -1.7 -3.8 -2.0 - 2.0 3.9 Private sector 13.0 16.6 15.1 14.3 13.2 11.8 a/ Excludes operstions of oil refinery. b/ Consolidated public sector. Sources: Ministry of Economic DOevelopment, Tourlsm, and Energy; Ministry of Flnencel IMF staffi and mission estimates. - 58 - Table 3.1t ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS */ (USs million) Est. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Current account -17.4 -26.3 -44.3 -48.9 -7.6 Resource balance -23.8 -32.6 -51.9 -56.2 -16.7 Exports of goods and NFS 50.7 72.9 85.0 82.9 84.9 Exports, f.o.b. (12.0) (30.4) (38.0) (34.4) (24.4) of whlcht re-exports b/ /7.2/ /18.4/ /28.3/ /14.7/ /10.0/ Travel 38.7 42.5 46.6 48.0 60.0 Other nonfactor services ... ... 0.4 0.5 0.5 Imports of goods and NFS -76.3 -108.2 -139.1 -143.0 -104.5 Imports, c.l.f. c/ (-74.5) (-105.5) (-136.5) (-138.6) (-101.1) Interest paymenta on public debt (not) (-1.7) (-2.4) (-3.1) (-4.2) (-3.2) ECCA profits (net) (0.5) (0.7) (0.7) (I) (I) Other factor services (net) (-0.6) (-1.0) (-0.2) (-0.2) (-0.2) Private transfers (net) 8.2 9.0 9.8 11.2 12.0 Post office (0.6) (0.5) (0.4) (0.9) (0.8) Commercial banks foreign (7.6) (8.5) (9.4) (10.3) (11.2) Exchange operations Capital account 17.3 25.5 44.0 48.9 7.1 Official transfers 1.9 4.1 3.6 1.0 1.3 Official capital (net) 8.9 2.9 14.2 6.1 1.8 Commercial banks 1.9 -0.6 0.8 6.7 -2.7 Foreign private Investment and errors and omissions 4.6 19.1 25.4 35.1 7.2 Overall balance 0.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 Financing -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.5 Not ECCA borrowing - 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 Government foreign assets (increase-) -0.1 -0.2 0.1 - -0.3 a/ The 1978-80 serios Is not consistent with that of 1981 and 1982 due to reclassifica- tlon wIth a more dotalled breakdown of commercial bank data on services, and break-in data on postal money orders Issued. bl Includes re-exports of goods other than jet fuel. c, Includes US$30 million of self-financed Imports for the oil refinery In 1981. Does not Include Imports of jet fuel. d/ Includes disbursements of government-guaranteed loans outside the consolidated public sector. Sourcess Ministry of Finance, Statistics Division; Department of Tourlsm; Post Office; commercial banks; ECCA; OECS Socretariatj and IMF staff estimates. - 59 - Table 3.2: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - VALUE OF EXPORTS BY S.I.T.C. SECTION (US$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total exports 12.0 30.4 38.0 34.4 24.4 Total domestic exports 3.0 9.4 9.7 19.7 14. 4 Food and live animals 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.5 Beverages and tobacco - 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 Crude materilas, Inedible, except fuel - 0 .1 0.1 - - Fuel - - - 7.3 1.0 Chemicals - 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 Manufactured goods 2.1 6.6 9.0 8.6 10.4 Machinery and transport equipment 0.7 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.4 miscellaneous transactions and commodities - - - - - Total re-exports 9.0 21.0 28.3 14.7 10.0 Food and live animals 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 Beverages and tobacco - 0.2 0.1 0.1 - Chemicals - 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 Fuel 1.8 4.2 3.8 3.3 1.7 Manufactured goods 5.2 11.0 13.2 4.2 1.8 Machinery and transport equipment 1.9 5.1 10.5 5.9 5.9 Miscellaneous transactions and commodities - - 0.1 - - Sources, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Divisloni and staff estImates. - 60 - Table 3.3: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - VALUE OF IMPORTS C.I.F. BY S.l.T.C. SECTION (USS million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 74.5 105.5 136.5 138.6 101.1 Food and live animals 26.1 21.0 31.4 27.2 22.6 Beverages and tobacco 2.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 7.4 Crude materlals Inedible, except fuel 1.1 2.4 3.2 2.2 1.4 Mineral fuel lubricants and related material a/ 12.3 20.9 18.6 39.1 18.0 Animal and vegetable oIls and fats 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.3 Chemicals 3.1 8.5 7.5 7.5 6.9 Manufactured goods 15.8 27.3 34.8 33.3 27.2 Machinery and transport equipment 13.7 20.8 35.6 24.7 17.2 Miscellaneous transactlons and commodities - 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 a/ Fuel Import figures are those reported by the West Indies Oil Company only. They do not Include Jet fuel Imports which are re-exported. Sourcess Ministry of Finance, Statistics DivisIon; and staff estimates. - 61 - Table 3.4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: TERMS OF TRADE Proj 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 (Index 1977 = 100) Export 115.0 136.1 156.0 165.5 183.2 Domestic exports 120.7 137.9 151.3 157.0 156.8 Tourism 113.2 134.9 159.4 170.5 190.1 Imports a/ 125.6 153.1 168.7 170.2 172.7 Terms of trade 91.6 88.9 92.5 97.2 106.1 (Annual percentage change) Exports 7.8 18.3 14.6 6.1 10.7 Imports 17.5 21.9 10.2 0.9 1.5 Terms of trade -8.2 -2.9 4.0 5.1 9.2 a/ Based on Import unit price of the United States adjusted for changes In oil pricoe. Source: IMF staff estimates. - 62 - Table 4.1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - MEDIUM- AND LONG-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT BY THE TYPE OF LENDER, MATURITY STRUCTURE, AND TERMS (USS million) December 1979 1980 1981 1962 1983 Total 42.2 44.7 74.5 79.6 80.3 Official 11.0 13.2 14.5 15.3 18.7 Comm,rcIl 31.2 31.5 60.0 64.3 61.6 Maturity Structure 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Over I year to 5 years 19.9 17.4 15.3 21.3 20.4 Over 5 years to 10 years 24.3 18.9 15.1 11.1 9.0 Over 10 years to 15 years 20.6 16.5 9.9 9.2 8.7 Over 15 years to 20 years 7.2 13.2 8.9 9.4 11.4 Over 20 years 28.0 34.0 50.8 49.0 50.5 Revolving Credit / (6.1) (9.8) (36.7) (34.5) (34.0) T erm Average Interost Rate 4.7 7.2 9.3 10.2 6.1 Avorago Maturity (years) 13.3 14.8 17.1 16.5 17.0 a/ Refers to the advance from AIB and the US$14,375 million loan from Colonial Bank which as an offsetting deposit. Source: INF staff estimates. - 63 - Page 1 of 6 Table 5.1t ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA# CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF PUBLIC SECTOR (EC$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1. Consolidated Public Sector Current revenue 62.3 78.7 96.2 103.6 96.5 Current expenditure 61.1 77.4 90.5 109.7 110.0 Current balance 1.2 1.3 5.7 6.1 13.5 Capital receipts 5.2 11.2 10.2 3.4 4.1 Capital exponditure 33.0 25.3 50.8 44.7 20.2 Of whicht capital formation (32.2) (24.1) (50.3) (35.8) (20.2) Overall balance -26.6 -12.8 -34.9 -47.4 -29.6 Financing 26.6 12.8 34.9 -47.4 -29.6 External (not) 23.5 10.1 36.5 21.4 7.0 Domestic (not) 0.5 1.0 -8.0 9.8 - Buildup of arroars 2.6 1.7 6.4 16.2 19.0 11-1. Central Government Current revonue 53.2 63.9 79.4 92.9 87.8 Current expenditure 63.2 77.2 90.7 112.1 110.1 Of whlchz Consolidated transfers 1.1 0.1 0.1 2.2 0.4 Arrears In payments to reat of public sector 5.5 6.1 6.4 7.5 7.9 Current account surplus or deficit (-) -10.0 -13.3 -11.3 -19.2 -22.3 Capital receipts 5.2 11.2 10.2 3.4 4.1 Capital expenditure I/ 28.5 24.5 27.4 40.6 14.0 Overall surplus or deficit (-) -33.2 -26.6 -28.5 -56.4 -32.2 Financing 33.2 26.6 28.5 56.4 32..2 External (not) 22.2 10.1 5I.1 16.4 -4.1 Domestic (not) 3.0 8.7 0.6 16.3 9.4 Arrears on payments bl 8.1 7.8 12.8 23.7 26.9 - 64 - Page 2 of 6 Table S.l, ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR (CONTINUED) (ECS million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 11-2. Social Security Scheme Revenuo 8.3 9.6 10.9 12.2 13.3 Contrlbutlons 6.4 7.6 8.5 9.6 10.5 Of whicha Central Government arroars (2.2) (2.6) (2.7) (3.6) (3.8) Interest 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.5 Expenditurs 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.4 4.1 Wages and salaries 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Benefits 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 Goods and services 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 Curront and overall balanco 6.4 7.2 8.0 8.8 9.2 FInancing (increase -) -6.4 -7.2 -8.0 -8.6 -9.2 Commercili bank deposits 0.4 -1.4 -1.0 -0.3 -0.4 Central Oovernment -5.2 -5.4 -3.9 -5.3 -5.3 Treasury bills (-2.2) (-0.5) (-0.9) (-1.7) (-1.5) Debentures C-) (-2.3) (-0.3) C-) C-) Loasn a-0.8) ) -) C-) C-) -) Arrears on contrlbutIons (-2.2) (-2.6) (-2.7) (-3.6) (-3.8) Other -1.6 -0.4 -3.1 -3.2 -3.5 11-3. Medlcal Bonofit. Scheme Revenue 4.8 4.8 5.3 3.9 4.2 ContrIbutlone 4.6 4.6 5.1 3.8 4.0 Of which: Governmont arrears (1.5) (1.8) (1.8) (1.8) (1.9) Other 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 Expenditure 2.6 4.0 3.4 3.9 4.1 Wages and salaries 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 O.S Bonefits - 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 O thar 2.S 3.7 2.9 3.3 3.3 Current and overall balance 2.2 0.8 1.9 - 0.1 Financing (Incroese -) -2.2 -0.8 -1.9 - -0.1 Commercial bonks (net) - 0.3 -0.8 - - Control government -1.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8 -1 .9 Of which$ Loans to Centrel Government () C-0.3) (-0.1) ) (-) Arrears of Government contributlons (-I.5) (-1.8) (-1.8) (-1 .8) (-1.9) Other -0.7 1.0 0.8 1.8 1.8 -65- Page 3 of 6 Table 5.1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAt CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR (CONTINUED) (EC$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 111. Major Stat. Enterprises Net operating surplus or deficit C-) 2.6 6.6 7.2 4.3 -0.5 Of which: consolidated transfers 1.1 0.1 0.1 2.2 0.4 Central Government arears 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 Capital expenditures 4.5 0.8 23.4 4.1 6.2 Overall surplus or deficit -1.9 5.8 -16.2 0.2 -6.7 Financing 1.9 -5.8 16.2 -0.2 6.7 Foreign financing (net) C/ 1.3 - 21.4 5.0 4.7 Domestic financing (net) 0.6 -5.8 -5.2 -5.2 2.0 Banks (-0.1I (0.6) (-0.1) (0.7) (1.3) Central Government (0.1) (-0.4) (-0.2) (-0.1) (-0.1) Accumulation of Central Government arrears -1 .5) (-1 .7) (-1 .9) (-2.1) (-2.2) Other (2.1) (4.3) (-3.0) (-3.7) (3.0) 111-1. Port Authority Operating revenue 3.3 3.9 5.3 7.0 8.4 Operating expendIture 2.9 3.2 4.2 6.1 7.6 Wages and salaries 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.8 Social Security contributions - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Interest 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 Net operating surplus or deficit (-) 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.8 Capital receipts - - - - - Capital expenditure 0.2 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.3 Overall surplus or deficit (-) 0.2 - 0.6 -0.5 -0.5 Foreign financing (net) 0.2 - 0.3 0.8 1.0 Domestic financing (net) -0.4 - 0.9 -0.3 -0.5 Banks 0.1 0.1 -0.3 - - Government 0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 Other 0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.3 - 66 - Page 4 of 6 Table 5.1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR (CONTINUED) (EC$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 111-2, Public Utilities Authority (years ending June) Operating revenue 13.6 21.7 27.3 32.1 37.3 Of whichs Government arrears 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 Government transfera 0.9 - - 0.5 0.3 Operating expenditure 11.5 15.1 20.3 27.6 37.0 Wages and salaries 1.8 2.2 3.0 5.2 6.0 Social Security contributlons ..... ... Intereat 1.6 0.9 0.8 1.9 2.1 Net operating surplus or deficit (-1 2.1 6.6 7.0 4.5 0.3 Capital receipts - - - - - Capital expenditure 4.3 0.1 22.9 1.7 2.5 Overall surplus or deficit C-) -2.2 6.5 -15.9 2.8 -2.2 Foreign financing (net) 1.1 - 21.1 3.1 0.5 Domestic financing (net) 1.1 -6.5 -5.2 -5.9 1.7 Banki - 0.4 0.2 0.4 1.0 Government 0.5 - - - - Accumulation of arrears by Government -1.5 -1.7 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 Soclal Security 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0 ther 2.0 -5.3 -3.6 -4.3 2.8 - 67 - Page 5 of 6 Tablo 5.1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAS CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR (CONTINUED) (EC$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 111-3. Contral Narketing Corporation (yeor ending August of each year) Revenues 3.7 3.7 5.4 4.3 6.6 Of which: Government transfers 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.7 - Operating expenditure 3.6 4.4 6.3 5.1 7.3 Wages 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 Social Security contrlbutions ... ... .... .. Interest 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 Net oporating surplus or deficit -) 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 Capital receipts - Capital rxpenditure - - - - Overall surplus or deficit (-) 0.1 -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 Not foreign borrowing - - - I Not domestic financing -0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 Banks - 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 Social Security - - 0.1 - Other -0.1 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 - 68 - Page 6 of 6 Table 5.1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR (CONCLUDED) (EC$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 111-4. Antigua Flsheries, Ltd. (Year ending Septomber of each year) OpsratIng revenue Operating expenditure - - - 0.4 0.9 Wages/salarls - - - 0.2 0.3 Interest - - - 0.1 0.2 Net operating surplus or deficit (-) - - - -0.4 -0.9 Capital recelpts - - - 0.5 - Capital expenditure - - - 1.4 2.4 Overall surplus or deficit I-) - - - -1.3 3.3 Foreign finoncing (net) - - - 1.1 3.2 Domestic financing (net) - - - 0.2 0.1 Banks _ _ 0.1 0.1 Government n t Other - - - 0.1 a/ Includes purchase of land and not lending. b/ Includes arrears on the external debt and to the private sector. c/ These data differ from those In the national accounts and external debt tables because of differences In timing and valuatlon. Sources: MInistry of Finance, state enterprises; and IMF staff estimates. - 69 - Table S.2. ANTIGUA MD 0AR10 c9A6 CENTRAL O4VERlI6T OPERATIOlS (EC mII II"nl 1979 lEO lM tl2 18Ms Acerhl AAran Cash Arrears A"renl C.o ASeers Acce"t Caeh Arrers AofrlI Current revenve 332 13.9 79.4 7 19.4 92.9 - 92.9 *7A - 97.9 Current expeedltere 63.2 77.2 78.1 12.1 80.7 92.4 II.7 112.1 93.5 6.4 110.1 Pereenal gl669t5 32.1 33.3 34.8 0.6 35.4 44.1 - 44.1 50.4 - 50.4 2o11.1 Sesmrlty 2.2 2.6 - 2.7 2.7 - 3.6 . - 3.J 3.1 Medical Besflte 1.. 1. - I.J 1.1 - 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.9 AntlgePublic UtilItIes Autherty e/ 1'. 1.7 1.9 1. - 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 Goods and ervIces 9.0 16.7 25.1 - 25.1 25.6 2.0 25A. 2.5s 0.5 24.0 P4*061@f 54 gratuities 3.1 43 4.1 0.2 4.3 4.5 0.2 4.7 4* - 4.S lnterest S.7 13.2 11.7 4.9 Is 6.8 10.A 2C.6 11.0 *.2 15.2 forelgn (5.7) 19.1) (7.9) (3.2) (11.0) (11.6) (S.4) (20.0) (5.71 (6.40 (12.1) Doestic (4.0) (5.l (3.9) (1.7I (5.1) (5.21 (.CIA) (1.c) (5.3 CIA) (7.1) Public esotw transfers 1.3 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 2.4 - 2.4 1.0 - 1.0 leteretlenl transfr. IA.6 2.6 2.7 1 2.7 1.0 - 1.0 3.0 - 3.0 Private .ster transef.r 0.4 0.9 - . - - - Cerrent aesneet beleae -10.0 -13.3 OJ -12.1 -11.3 0.3 -19.7 -18.2 -5.7 -11. -22J. Capithl relte 0..2 It. 2 10.2 - 1.2 - 3- .4 - - 4.I Capital r.$voles 0.1 0.2 0.5 - 0.5 0. - 0. 0.7 - 0.7 Fereip greats 0.1 11.0 9.7 - S.1 2A - 2.0 3.4 - 3.4 Capltal exenadlteree 29.5 24.5 27.4 - 27.4 40. - 40.6 14.0 - 14.0 feind l9vv.note 27.7 23.3 2.9 21.9 32.6 - 32A 14.0 - 14.0 Parsue. of land - . . - - .9 - 9.0 - - Nlt hlenOle 0.6 1.2 0.5 - 0.5 - - - - - - Onrell defielt -33.2 -26.6 -1?.4 -12.1 -2.0. -34.7 -19.7 -5c.4 -1.0 -16.c -32.2 flnmsnel 33.2 26.6 16.4 12.1 26.5 32.7 19.7 56.4 19.0 11.6 32.2 Total foreig fInselg (l0.) 22.2 10.1 lsJ -0.7 1I.1 20.4 -4.0 1.4 6.2 -10.3 -4.1 Orwlids eu f(crai. Is.... (25.1) (17.3) (66.1) (-) (64.I) (22.7) (-) (22.7) (6.62 I-) (SA) ECCA I-I 3.11, (0.21 I-) (0.2) (2.0) (-I (2.0) (1.4 I-) (1.) Change la Afreig. aseets (-0.32 (-.3) (-0.2) (-4.2) (-) (-0.22 (-0.2) (-) I-) I-) (-2 Auertlzatlse of meternal debt (-2.), (4-.1) (-70.3) (-0.71 t-71.0) (-4.1) (-4.0) (-.1) (-3.1, (-10.3) (-4.1) Ds_tle flenclet (net) 3.0 8.7 0.6 - 0. 16.3 - 164 9.4 - 9.4 Cereial basis (5.3) (0.31 (0.8) (-1 (0.1 (7.3) (-) (7.3) (9.0) (-I (.0I Inset.... 88"001. (-) (0.1) (0.2) -) (0.2) (4-.) (-) (4.5) (0.2) I-) 10.2) Rest of poio nester (2.) (23.5) (1.5) (-) (1.11 (1.9) (-3 (1.91 (1.7) I-I (1.7) other private eeter !/ (-5.2) (4.1) (-1.9) (-) (-1.8) (-0.4) C-) (-0.4) (-.5S) (-) (-4.51 PremItanry sets for lead (-5 C-) C-) (-2 1-) (9.0) C- (8.0) I-I C-I (-I lelldap f d rrenare 9.1 71 * -12J 12. - 23.7 23.7 - 26.9 J.9 04 hlb1e" Forelgn (1.5) (1.7) (3.9) I-) (12.4) (12.4) (16.7) (16.7) Interest /1.1/ A1./ /3.2) /3.2/ /9.4/ /S.4/ /6.4/ /6.4/ A-rtlzatl" /0.4/ /0.1/ /0.7/ /0.7/ /4.0/ /4.0/ 10.3/ /10.3/ Oestie (6.6) (6.1) (9.3) (6.9) (11.3) (11.3) (10.21 (10.2) Rest d pblic eeater 41.5/ /6.1/ /6.4/ /1.41 n.s/ n./1 7.2j/ n/S/ Other /1.1 I-I /2.s/ /2.5/ /3.6 /3.6/ /24/ /2 tAe S 4 CDr) Cerreet reaes 22.7 22.1 249 24.6 24.14 Cerreet exsgedltre (.seerenl) 27.0 27. 24.J 32.4 31.1 Capital em"edltern 12.2 8.7 J I 11.7 4.0 Cerreet desfelt 4.3 4.7 3.5 5.s 4.3 O"erall d1e1f t 14.2 J.S 8.1 16.3 9.1 If 1eeldee peeelae end Oretolty pyjaete. V IRalbdes erelgstered pynmets ad transfers. end err.. and 5018.1586. nre"ng Nieletfy of FIne., etettery edilee asd 1w staff eetlmtee. - 70 - Table 5.38 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE (EC$ million) 1979 1960 1981 1982 1983 Domestic current revenue 53.2 63.9 79.4 92.9 87.9 Direct taxes 4.9 6.7 11.4 11.8 12.8 Income tax 4.3 6.2 10.4 10.7 11.4 Of whicht corporation tax (3.0) (5.5) (9.6) (10.2) (11.0) Property tax 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.4 indiroct Taxes 33.9 40.8 48.8 57.1 55.3 Consumption taxes a/ 11.0 11.6 15.6 21.0 19.3 Import duties 12.3 16.3 17.3 18.8 17.7 Export duties 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Hotol and guest taxes 3.2 3.9 4.3 4.6 6.0 Travol tax 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 Embarkation tax 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 Entertainment tax 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Telecommunicatlon tax 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 Stamp duties 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.5 2.6 Foreign currency ievy 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.7 Insurance premium Ievy 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Casino tax - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Cruise-ship tax - - 0.7 0.4 0.3 Other 1.8 1.7 2.7 2.9 1.9 Nontax revenue 14.4 16.4 19.2 24.0 19.7 Currency profits 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.7 2.7 US bases 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 Licenses and fees 2.0 4.0 4.3 2.1 2.1 Poet Office revenue b/ 4.8 3.5 4.8 3.8 3.2 Intoreat eornod on counterpart external deposits 0.7 1.9 3.0 8.9 4.6 Other 1.5 1.1 1.0 2.5 3.0 Capitsl receipts 5.2 11.2 10.2 3.4 4.1_ Sales of government landa 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 UK Development Aid 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.3 1.4 CIDA grants 2.7 8.0 6.0 ... USAID - 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.0 Trinidad and Tobago - - - ... ... Other (ILO-WHO) 0.3 0.4 0.7 * ... Memorandum Item Current revenues oxcluding Interest earned on counterpart external deposits 52.5 62.0 76.4 84.0 83.2 a/ Includes surcharge. b/ Includes philatelic sales. Sources$ Miniatry of Financel Tressuryl and IMF staff oetimatoe. _ 71 - Table 5.4s ANTIGUA AND BARBUOA: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE (EC$ million) 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Current expenditure 63.2 77.2 90.7 112.1 110.1 Personal emoluments a/ 32.6 33.3 35.4 44.1 50.4 Social Security 2.2 2.6 2.7 3.6 3.8 Medical benefit payments 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 Other goods and services 9.0 16.7 25.1 25.6 24.0 Pensions and gratuities 3.1 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.6 Intargst 9.7 13.2 16.6 26.8 19.2 Public sector transfers 1.3 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.0 Antigua Public Utilities Authority (0 .9) C-I -) (0.5) (0.3) Central Marketing Corporatlon (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (1.7) (0.1) Industrial Dovelopment Board (0.1) (0.1) C-) (0.1) C-) Antigua and Barbuda DOevelopment Bank (0.1) C-) () C-) C-) Sugar Industry Corporation C-) C-) C-) (0*5) Antigua and Barbuda Development Corporation C-)C-) co .1) C-) C-) Antigue Isle Company C-) C-) (-) (0.1) (0.1) Private sector transfers 0.4 0.8 - - Internatlonal transfers 1.6 2.6 2.7 1.0 3.0 Other bj 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 Memorandum Item BulIdup of arrears on current expenditure 7.7 7.2 12.1 19.7 16.6 a/ Includes wages (nonestabilehed), labor crash program, and manpower training. b/ Comprises accumulation of arrears to the Pubilc Utilities Authority. Sourcess Ministry of Flnance, Treasury, and IMF staff estimates. - 72 - Table 5.5t ANTIGUA ANO BARBUOA& OISTRIBUTION OF BONDED DEBT (EC*'OO0) 1979 1980 1981 1982 Total 36,922 45,989 52,905 56,545 Treasury bills 14,500 22,305 26,535 28,574 Commerclal banks 3,800 6,900 9,200 7,800 ECCA 2,300 5,400 5,500 7,600 Social Security 5,536 5,989 6,900 8,550 Other public sector 1,485 1,415 2,805 3,054 Private sector 367 608 334 469 Insurance companles 832 1,595 1,395 700 LIAT 180 130 130 130 Msdlcal Benefits Scheme - 271 271 271 Debentures 13,822 16,779 17,370 18,271 Commercial banks 2,300 2,400 1,600 2,300 Soclsi Security 6,634 8,869 9,169 9,169 Insurance companies 875 875 1,275 1,515 Local private sector 363 635 826 787 ECCA 3,650 4,000 4,000 4,000 Central Bank of Barbados - - 500 500 Roserve requirements 8,600 6,905 9,000 9,700 Sourcess MInintry of Finance, ECCA, commercial banks, and Social Security Scheme. - 73 - Table 5.63 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAs CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FOREIGN ASSETS (ECSVOOO) 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 Not foreign assets 853 1,113 1,663 1,866 1,991 Joint Consolidated Fund (cash funds) -70 278 378 437 507 Savings Bank 662 536 882 1,037 1,076 Surplus Fund 239 275 335 392 408 Stock Transfer Stamp Duty Fund 22 24 68 Sourcess Treasury and IMF staff estimates. g~~~~~~ 9, 9W .. 99 9 9 9 9 . 9 9 *. , ..,.. | ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~ 9 ' 9999 '9 99 9 E~ ' ' '9 99 ' L's2 @ gscn "s2 g | la|wg|8@""| * g 4 _ g R ^ " g 2 E E ~I '1 ' '99 ' '99 '6 9 , ,o. w~~~~~~~ ,99 9 99 -eG - E 99 I |R ^ t g W|0 I | ~ ~~~ 9 ' Z U '' a, 3 'I '" MIw 1 1l'sEf,|0 | i g o @ 9 | o9 S 5 a * *!~ a' * s u *u m 9 1R 31 §|~~ ~~ 3 ji/ a *i I3!i,ll.i1 ' ' am- a-'q wJ i - 75 - Tab!e 57t 4ff61 UA 4 9M - P.lC 543E0 C0WITL EW9 1Es. 316344 (cl4166) UEC*'OOO 1802 104 INS 516 Tta,l Exteml el TOW E rtoel LIYo Totel Etsroe LOI Tat. I etetnml LoIl 1NM7 of T1M PUBlC T A2riaitun, Faroaby ed FleItrI.. 1ll-e1Io Ser D lopot ASIC) 10 - 10 5s0 - o - - Flabriee Ie6try .eel_qet Ur Lt.) 2.041 2.041 - 1,04 1.0 a 3,m .17 - Trameertsth.. Port 4ea4InIg Eqip.l*t (PA) 2.000 2,FO0 - - - - - - - Wind Py.r Prejet IW 0 DO 464 464 - - -4- E .Wli _a tWydleg ef T7o pft. Fa.lltb0 I. DPA) 1'0 - .IX 1,0 - I3 - - _ _ 6brw $_l1v _i 5_Ge *litI-abeer g0rpey R1.1let (lrleg - NW 1.0 I0 40 - - - 1t.04; & _ 1iy Enosl e InP.21 27 - 6,3 4,507 1.31 Is,=5 13e 6,44t 13.w42 0.3 4,4 l.tr Oeblelstle 11 27 52 21 W 10 ISO 100 4.016 2.67 1.1 40 2.0 11 E06geiy Aesbletec 0ehtl *P10 96 - - - - - - IbOt Le. (AŁ I/ 04 ST 7 1 4 1 ltto Ple (Fl_ / ,I'm 1,40w - - - - - - - _ _ 0AM Eqlty lew._ tAlebl Crdit Lima AW72 m 12 4 6ID 0I0 - M10 130 - - - - UTL mole167 OfPUBLC M 0.735 3.58 2.s5 35.207 II,X 301 3.07 20,42 .41 t0,20 II,.SI *.a4 iMMA, 0meal 20,2n 3.61 Is53 313.o 17,Z5 14,112 37.50 24.C54 13,151 1,611 13,47 0C33 NM P1650T C_terl Ir_et Arluftm, forao6 tn d Pl_rshws Lim"a D.eIut. PIe 11 1,000 1.00 - wtmzlwil P_ bilbtlto MM =011 FPl6 ON lepoMt IA4 1,312 n7 I,a 1.312 IZ7 Tra6.mWtatlee Red ftmebe1t8 3.000 3,01 3.4Ct 500 - FIr. PI600l.t E.IPumt 04.0.10 AlI1erO I" ISO - FoelrgtIaU Eqolpt - Clidge Airpt I 10 - - - - blue Ret tleo (DO4- Proyra 3.30 I Mc - 1o0 I3M Aleraee1tl1 Cbr 14III $dael 700 700 - 700 Aftiostrtlom EeIeeeIa of " vd e r.t 50hI i 5a - 57 - WAT OF 136 P316.1 AM1 PE4r TrECly tlc4r.ebIty Oltbetlr t Al 3.1 3e 21700 00 7. 5O so4te 3 1074. Kw P1417 11.1 I0.1 3.06 14.74 12,010 1,027 w7it 3n50570u7e 20.W1 3.4 n,03 31.51 11. 14,112 4.e 34.124 34,31 2j.in 3. I 3.130 . Cr 43 11_n 04 as pletle e r. - 76 - Table 5.8: ANTIGUA AND BARIJDA - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT, 1982-86 a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Total Percent 1983 1984 1985 1986 1983-86 Public Sector Capital Expenditur bs 20.2 31.4 48.9 38.4 138.9 100.0 Financing Public Sector Savings O/ -13.5 -7.4 -0.1 10.3 -10.7 -7.7 External Financing (Not) 7.0 27.8 41.0 24.7 100.5 72.4 Gross Disbursements of Grants and Loans 22.1 50.0 62.1 38.9 173.1 124.6 Amortizatlon 15.1 22.1 21.1 14.0 72.3 52.1 Not Flnancing from Commerclal Banks and Other Domestic Sources 3.6 11.0 8.0 4.0 26.6 19.2 a/ Excludes Investment In new hotels/condomlnlums for which financing and Implementation schedule are not available. bl Includes capital transfers and land purchases. ci Refers to Consolidated Public Sector. Sources Ministry of Economic Development, Tourism, and Energy; Ministry of FInance; and mission estimates. - 77 - Table 6.1 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAa EAST CARIBBEAN CURRENCY AUTHORITY (ECS million) Decomber 31 Sept. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 Not International reserves 117.8 139.1 167.4 145.2 148.8 133.8 151.3 Assets 144.2 176.2 210.6 212.3 181.4 133.8 151.3 Fixed assots and money st cell (111.0) (117.6) (139.3) (93.9) (81.5) (15.9) (13.8) Regular notes In process of redemption (4.4) (1.7) (5.7) (6.2) (2.8) (3.2) (2.4) Other socurities (28.8) (56.9) (65.6) (112.2) (97.1) (114.7) (135.1)0/ Liabilities -26.4 -37.1 -43.2 -67.1 -32.6 - - Balance due to banks abroad a/ (-26.4) (-37.1) (-43.2) (-67.1) (-32.6) - - Not position wIth banks In ECCA ares -65.9 -75.7 -89.2 -61.6 -55.6 -46.3 -66.0 Assett 4.5 2.8 8.7 6.5 7.2 11.2 6.2 Bankers' balances b/ (2.6) (0.8) (6.5) (4.2) (4.8) (8.6) (3.5) Balances with banks In ares c/ (1.9) (2.0) (2.2) (2.3) (2.4) (2.6) (2.7) LIabilitles -70.4 -78.5 -97.9 -68.1 -62.8 -57.5 -72.2 Currency notes and coins -14.0 -17.7 -24.0 -26.5 -23.5 -28.4 -20.2 Antigua and Barbuda (-2.0) (-2.5) (-3.8) C-4.5) (-4.7) (-4.8) (-2.4) Other (-12.0) (-15.2) (-20.2) (-22.0) (-18.8) (-23.6) (-17.8) Deposits -56.4 -60.8 -73.9 -41.6 -39.3 -29.1 -52.0 Demand (-3.7) (-7.1) (-7.9) (-12.9) (-13.1) (-17.1) (-34.2) Fixed (-52.7) (-53.7) (-66.0) (-28.7) (-26.2) (-11.3) (-17.8) Net domestic assets 12.9 12.6 13.3 13.9 18.4 24.3 22.7 Central Government (net) 26.0 28.7 33.5 40.3 45.9 53.2 56.8 Antigua Treasury bills d/ (1.8) (2.3) (2.3) (5.4) (5.6) (7.6) (7.6) Other Treasury bills (9.9) (10.6) (17.1) (17.9) (20.9) (27.0) (29.3) Antigua debentures d/ (4.0) (4.0) (4.0) (4.0) (4.0) (4.0) (4.0) Other debentures (10.3) (11.8) (10.1) (13.0) (15.4) (14.6) (15.9) Liabilities to nonnonotary International organizatIons -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -7.7 -2.5 -1.4 -1.3 Not unclassified assets -12.7 -15.7 -19.8 -18.7 -25.0 -27.5 -32.8 Assets (1.6) (2.7) (1.9) (4.0) (3.7) (8.5) (2.1) LIabilIties (-14.3) (-18.4) (-21.7) (-22.7) (-28.7) (-36.0) (-34.9) Currency In circulation 64.8 76.0 91.5 97.5 111.6 111.8 108.0 In Antigua and Barbuda 10.0 15.1 16.0 15.3 16.3 16.2 16.1 Estimate of notes and coins Issued (12.0) (17.6) (19.8) (19.8) (21.0) (21.0) (18.5) Leoss commercill banks' cash holdings (-2.0) (-2.5) (-3.8) (-4.5) (-4.7) (-4.8) (-2.4) In other ECCA countries 52.2 5.3 72.9 79.6 92.7 93.0. 89.3 Estimate of notes and coins Issued (64.2) (73.5) (93.1) (101.6) (111.5) (116.6) (107.1) Losat coimercll banks' cash holdings (-12.0) (-15.2) (-20.2) (-22.0) (-18.8) (-23.6) (-17.8) Coins In former member countries 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 / 'Abroad' mooning outside ECCA area. b/ Foreign currency loans to area commercial banks. c/ Domestic curroncy loans to area comierclel banks. d/ The 1977 and 1981 figures corresponding to the holdings of Troeaury bills and debontures differ from thoos Included In the not borrowing position with ECCA prosonted In the fiscal and external sector sections due to valuatlon adjustment. e, Includes credit bal, .J+h nvrU P,. -- Source: East Caribbean Currency Authority. - 78 - Table 6.21 MiTIQUA M) 6RSIJM WiEIAL VA IERATIONS at (ECS ml IlIon) D0ceakbr 31 Est. Septlwr 30 1978 b/ 1979 1960 1961 1962 1963 1982 1983 C/ met foreign asat -11.3 -16.4 -14.9 -17.0 -35.2 -26.0 -19.S -24.1 Assets 31.3 30.1 25.1 32.0 35.3 45.5 22.7 31.3 Forelgi currncy reldingo (1.4) tl.9) C25) (1.1) (1.4) l.5) (0.6) (1.4) Cioak an ECCA (12.5) (14.9) (13.0) (11.4) (i6.6) (18.7) (10.7) (9.7) of whichi currency taldinge /2.5/ /3 J/ /A . /4.7/ /4A/ /3.1/ /3.1/ /2.Al Claim on ECCA ara bank (9.5) (4.) (0.2) (3.4) (5.9) (2.4) (3.5) (1.4) Ciai an b ink abroad (9.5) (4.0) (0.2) (3.4) (5.9) (2.4) (3.5) (1.4) O th r I-) tl.4) t3.5) O1.A) t-) t-) I-) t-) Liabilitie *42.6 .46.5 -39.9 -49.0 -70.5 -73.5 -42.2 -55.4 Balance dw to ECCA I_) I-) I-) I-) (-0.1) I-) t-) I-) Bolance due to ECA ara bnbk (-4.3) (-14.0) (-4J) (-11.3) (-2t.4) (-2.6) (-1A1) (-12.0) Balanc do to banle obred (-16.5) (-12.0) -11.3) (-9.3) (-14.3) (-17.5) (-.2) (-15.0) Ionreaidnt deposits (-15.) (-20.5) (-23.) t-2S.4) (-3.7) (-3.4) (-2.2) t-2S.4) ownd /3Af /4J/ /5.0 /10.6 A93/ /7n4 /5.Al /7.2/ Saedne /3.9/ A5.5/ /62/ /7.5 A ./ A6/ /4.4/ /6.1/ Tim /6S. /9.7/ /12 Al /10.3 /15.- /S1.6 /12./ /15.1/ Nat datIc aseelt 10S.3 114.7 126.7 153.1 193.0 227A 172.0 217.3 Net credit to Central Governmnt 33.0 3.3 39.6 3.4 4.7 54.7 44.0 5.6 Treaaay bilIe (5.6) (3J) (6.9) (9.2) (7.6) (4.5) (6.) (4.7) Dobentrs 33) (2.3) (2.4) tl6) (2.3) (t.5) (2.3) (5.5) Loanr nd *advnces Including wvrdraft (1t.4) (24.2) (24.0) (20.7) (27) CM6.4) (25.0) 24.4) Special deposlt requrrmnts dV tS) (.6) (6.9) (9.0) (9.7) (23.3) (9.5) (23.3) Oovernmat dOpeltb I-) I-) (-0.6) t-1.6) t-1.1) (-0.9) (-5.0) (-0.9) t-1.3) Net credit to other public sctor 2.7 -4.0 -4.5 -5.0 -1.2 -5.2 -1.1 -5.2 Credit (2.7) (6.0) (6.2) (3.) (8.5) (5.8) (7.0) (5.5) Depolt (-) t-) (-10.0) -10.7) (-4J) -9.7) t-11.0) (-S.) (-10.7) Net credit to mbeak finaneial Intwbdlerlos - -4.0 -4.5 -4. -5.6 -7.4 -5.3 -7.4 Credit (-) (1.4) (IA) (IA) (I A) (0.6) (2.4) (O6) DeposIt (-) (-) (-5.4) (-7.4) (-7.4) (-7.4) (-4.0) (-7.7) (4.0) Credit to prlvate netar 63.0 66.0 I1.7 135.7 146 179.8 143.6 173.6 Interbank flot ... 1.2 2.7 1.9 1.3 - 1.6 8.9 Clal t...I (-12.4) -24.5) t-2.2) (-31.2) t-31.2) C-40.2) t45.2) Llabilitlie (...) (-12.4) (-24.5) (-26.2) (-31.2) (-31.2) (-40.2) (-5.2) Liabilities to privets actor O/ 97. 8 9.3 111.9 136.1 157.9 19. 152.5 193.2 OiMnd deposits 15.5 7.4 21.2 23.7 22.0 31.2 22.5 30.2 Savings depo Its 43.5 3.7 51. 60.9 64.5 70.9 64.6 68.6 Tim deposits 3.0 43.2 3S.9 51.6 71.3 97J 65.4 94.4 a' Inberbankt I not Included In ttl cmwecial bhnk coneolidetion de to lack of mploet Infortlon and the negilgibi iwporte of It dc_etic operations. b SIarc Jmry 1979 the rporting form fro ECCA chqned ttir formt cl lwing for a ajor brokdnam. In order to ohm a on,slstnt earlu, thl following asumptinc for estimting 197S date were wdes ForIgn wrency eildlnrap 35 of tobtl acsh hlldig as pubilshed In ECCA bulletin. ECOCA currencyh Idingas tin rw_lnder to total holding. Claim en ECCs 515 of total locl "sats as pubilehd In ECCA Biletin. Claim o bake In ECCA areon the rmaindw of local asels. Neereidet dIests differeet b et correspendiag deposit dt a s pubilshd In ECCA biltin nd thioe ehow In Antlig quote paper. ibn of AntilA and Sulwss Aric 'aN bpgn cperating by th end of 1961. However, both lanks elabd to he Included In ECOA'c reporting sysen_ since April I19631 therefore, Sapbaebr 190 figuers are not cqbcrble to thie d thI prviuom year. d/ Most be classifled thile It. en 'Oth.r Asets.- Swiss Aricln Dec end Antips Cinricia BSea InclU It as lnwasont (dbestwes) nd bnos Sooth ciasif ed It as Cbialm an EOCA.- Adjoebta were wade acordhgly. DeIts of other public etitlos and financial ltitutiona afe ecluded. - 79 - Table 6.3: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS AND ADVANCES TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR December 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (March) (In millons of East Caribbean dollars) Total 76.6 90.0 86.4 107.3 134.5 151.9 183.6 176.3 Agriculture 1.0 1.8 1.8 3.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 Manufacturing 8.6 12.7 10.7 6.8 9.3 11.8 17.2 12.9 Distributive trades 29.5 16.3 11.4 23.1 22.9 24.6 19.6 23.6 Tourism a/ 6.1 7.9 6.7 3.6 5.0 9.2 12.7 9.8 Transport 2.5 3.9 4.1 3.6 5.5 5.7 6.3 6.4 BulIding, construction 6.7 8.3 5.9 5.0 9.5 18.0 25.5 21.9 Personal bl 21.2 24.0 27.9 49.7 67.0 62.8 81.0 84.3 Other advances 1.0 15.1 17.9 11.8 13.5 18.2 19.9 16.0 (As percent of total) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture 1.3 2.0 2.1 3.5 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 Manufacturing 11.2 14.1 12.4 6.3 6.9 7.8 9.4 7.3 Distributive trades 38.5 18.1 13.2 21.5 17.0 16.1 10.7 13.4 TourIsm 8.0 8.8 7.8 3.4 3.7 6.1 6.9 5.6 Transport 3.3 4.3 4.8 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.4 3.6 BuIlIding, construction 8.8 9.2 6.8 4.7 7.1 11.9 13.9 12.4 PersonaI a/ 27.7 26.7 32.3 46.3 49.9 41.2 44.1 47.8 Other advances 1.2 16.8 20.6 10.9 10.0 12.0 10.8 9.1 4/ Includes entertaInment and caterIng. b/ Includes professlonal and other services. Source: East Caribbean Currency Authority. - 80 - Table 6.4: ANTIOUA AND BARBUDAt COMMERCIAL BANK INTEREST RATE RANGESO/ December 31 Mar. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Savings deposits 2.5-3.0 2.5-3.0 2.5-3.0 2.5-3.0 2.5-3.5 2.5- 6.0 2.5- 6.0 Time deposits Up to 3 months -- -- 4.0-5.5 5.5-6.5 6.0-8.0 7.5-11.0 7.5-11.0 3 to 6 months 4.S-5.5 5.5-7.0 4.5-6.5 6.5-7.5 6.0-8.5 7.5-12.0 8.0-12.0 6 to 12 months 6.0-7.0 6.5-7.5 6.0-7.5 7.0-8.5 6.0-8.5 8.0-13.0 8.0-13.0 Over 12 months 6.5-7.0 6.5-7.5 7.0-7.5 7.5-8.5 8.5-10.0 8.0-13.0 8.0-13.0 Prime rate 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.0-11.0 11.5-13.5 8.5-14.0 8.5-14.0 Other lending rates -- 8.0-13.0 9.0-16.4 10.0-17.0 9.0-18.0 12.5-18.0 16.0-18.0 Discount loans -- -- -- 8.0-9.0 8.0-11.0 9.0-14.0 - a/ Intcrbank Ltd. retes are oxcluded because this Is an IntornationsI bank which operetoo at International rates. For examplo, In December 1981 the saving interost rats was 15.61, the range on time deposits was 15.6-20.5 per cent, and the lending rate was 20.81 Sourcess Commercial banks and ECCA. - 81 - Table 6.5: ANTIGUA AND 8ARBUDA - ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA DEVELOPMENT BANK (EC* 000) December 31 1977 1978 1979 "/ 1980 "/ 1981 1982 Cash -- -- -- -- -- -- Claims on commorclal banks 474.9 15 174 2 (214) 90 Demand deposits (overdraft) 164.9 (185) (26) (198) (428) -124 Fixed deposits 310.0 200 200 200 214 214 Domestic credit 3,584.4 5,162 3,067 4,255 6,926 8,782 Central Government Treasury bills 688.0 688 688 688 688 688 Clilms on private sector 2,923.5 2,359 2,738 4,157 7,063 9,546 Other assets (net) -27.1 2,115 -359 -590 -825 -1,452 Assets (17.6) (2,408) (165) (235) (274) (277) Liabilities (-44.7) (-293) (-524) (-825) -1 ,099) (-1 .729) Long-term foreign lsabilitis (COB) 2,864.8 4,326 2,414 3,092 5,611 7,158 Capital and surplus 1,194.5 851 825 1,165 1,100 1,714 a/ Because of changes In the accounting system, the years 1979 and 1980 are distinct and not comparable to previous years nor to each other. Source: Antigua and Barbuda Development Bank. - 82 - Table 7.1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (In thousands of pounds) Major crops Sweet potatoes t,O14 345 398 706 501.6 777.0 Tomatoes 933 353 211 290 378.7 626.5 Cucumber 387 361 321 344 326.1 308.1 Carrots 832 291 273 393 260.8 405.2 OnIons 283 234 134 148 85.9 102.2 Squash 91 137 253 290 238.8 187.2 Ginger 171 54 123 169 72.2 2.8 Pineapples 244 235 210 290 406.1 398.3 Mangoes 380 795 402 903 477.9 248.9 Bananas 1,010 1t090 1 ,046 1,132 1 ,395.2 104.2 Coconuts 1,455 1,477 1,538 1,602 2,772.0 516.8 -lIves tock Beef 892 946 1,151 852 1,325 1,010 b/ Mutton 56 40 40 31 41 31 Pork 302 354 372 229 375 286 b/ Milk (bottles) 574 590 565 652 620 650 _ F Isher las Fish landings 4,298 3,204 3,171 2,439 2,073 2,292 b/ Lobster landings 344 290 183 112 96 109 b (1977 * 10O)s/ Agriculture 146.9 97.4 92.6 117.8 199.0 Llvestock 98.6 105.3 121.0 89.7 95.0 Fisheries 112.3 85.5 79.0 59.2 50.0 Total agricultural production 106.1 98.8 106.4 82.6 91.0 as The Index ts weighted with 1977 production values In the case of subgroups and with value added for major groups. b/ Estimates. Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Supply; Organization of Eastern Caribbean Ststes; and staff estimates. - 83 - Table 7.2t ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: SELECTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Rum Volume (gal. 000) 203 181 128 162 165 133 Value (ECS 000) 1,157 1,477 1,222 1,607 1,650 1,200 Garments Foundation (000 doz.) 119 228 265 388 476 570 Value (EC$ 000) 1,600 3,327 3,552 8,884 10,652 15,000 Men'l garments (000 pleces) ... 174 204 284 327 279 Value (EC$ 000) ... 2,994 4,746 7,004 10,746 9,000 Paper products Production (000 rolls) 2,200 5,151 7,411 6,980 7,200 8,400 Sales (000 rolls) 584 4,726 5,836 6,948 7,100 Sales (EC$ 000) 39 331 536 667 750 Soft drInk& Volume (000 cases) 339 364 322 280 295 Value (EC$ 000) 2,098 2,693 3,766 3,710 3,900 Stoves (000 units) 4,450 7,152 5,885 3,911 3,646 3,800 Value (EC$ 000) 3,402 4,213 5,156 3,263 3,041 3,300 Refrigerators (000 units) 3,050 3,634 2,840 1,389 2,093 1,700 Value (EC$ 000) 2,326 3,686 2,808 1,351 2,036 1,700 Bedding (000 units) 3 9 12 9 3 12 Value (EC$ 000) 572 2,246 3,053 2,543 782&/ 4,500 4/ A fire In March 1982 halted production for the rest of the year. Sourcess Ministry of Economic Oevelopment and Tourism; and IBRD. - 84 - Table 7.3a ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND ELECTRICITY RATES 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 (in thousands of KWH) Electricity generation 46,072 43,094 50,251 53,874 5S6639 65,521 (In East Caribbean dollars) Domestic tariff Average rate per KWH 0.25 0.32 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 Average minimum charge 3.50 6.25 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 Commercial tariff Averago rate per KWH 0.28 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 Average mnlnmum charge 10.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Industrial tariff Average rate per KWH 0.20 0.26 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.33 Average minimum charge 15.00 10.50 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Sources Antigua Public Utility Authority. - 85 - Table 7.4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAt SELECTED TOURISM STATISTICS Est. Proj. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 (Numbor of visitors) Total visitors 128,837 169,802 204,995 209,112 164,103 165,040 185,052 CruIeec 51,942 70,266 107,094 113,357 66,768 51,981 49,388 Other 76,895 99,536 97,901 95,755 97,335 113,053 135,664 By air (75,562) (86,459) (86,571) (84,724) (87,042) (101,113) (121,336) By son (1,333) I13,077) (11,330) (11,031) (10,293) (11,940) (14,328) UnItad States (35,910) (43,724) (37,999) (32,162) (39,356) (52,336) (62,812) Europe (10,179) (21,510) (23,686) (19,772) (21,486) (22,727) (27,268) Canada (9,073) (8,993) (9,273) (8,198) (9,228) (B,222) (9,903) Caribbean countries (18,233) (21,349) (23,779) (21,492) (23,971)) All others (3,500) (3,960) (3,164) (3,100) (3,294)) (29,768) (35,681) Total bed capacity 2,538 3,416 3,995 3,978 4,586 5,126 5,380 (In millions of US dollara) Total expenditure a/ 29.5 38.7 42.5 46.6 48.0 60.0 76.0 Cruise visItors 1.2 1.7 3.1 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 Other visitors 28.3 37.0 39.4 43.0 45.8 58.2 74.3 (In days) Average length of stay of noncruisa visitora 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.0 (Annual percentage change) Total visitors 23 .8 31.8 20.7 2.0 -21.5 0.6 12 . 1 Cruiae 4.5 35.3 52.4 5.9 -41.1 -22.1 -5.0 Other 12.6 29.4 -1.6 -2.2 1.7 16.2 20.0 Total expenditure 19.4 31.1 9.8 9.6 3.0 25.0 26.7 a/ Expenditure for stopover visitors * number visitor x average stay x 0.92 (a guest nights) x daily spending (estimated at US$58.3 for 1980). Guest nights - It Is assumed that 8 per cent of stopover visitors stay with rolatives or friends, thus only 92S stay In hotels or guest houses. Crulse-shIp visitors' average stay Is less than one day and averago spending for 1980 was estimated at US$28.6, of which US$16.4 went to purchase souvenirs and handicrafts and the rest for general services. The aurvey supporting theso data wna conducted from Fobruary 18, 1980 to March 18, 1980. Sourcest Antigua Department of Tourism; and IMF staff estimates. - 86 - Table 7.5: ANTIGUA AND 8ARBUDAs MONTHLY STAY-OVER TOURIST ARRIVALS BY AIR 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 January 9,660 8,894 9,978 10,955 12,175 February 10,091 8,887 10,119 11,210 13,184 March 9,726 9,512 8,733 10,649 12,630 April 7,973 8,232 8,454 9,622 13,177 May 5,750 5,934 5,407 6,533 June 5,140 4,686 4,529 5,816 July 7,556 6,754 8,457 9,485 August 8,020 6,155 6,072 6,761 September 4,262 4,054 3,886 4,718 October 4,338 6,223 5,182 6,615 November 6,241 6,673 6,812 8,591 December 7,764 8,720 9,413 10,158 TOTAL 86,571 84,724 87,042 101,113 ...... s***UsU summons .*...... Sources Antigua Department of Tourism. - 87 - Table 7.6: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: TOURIST ROOM ACCOMMODATION CAPACITY Hotel Category 1977 1982 1983 Hotel/Motel 1,184 1,707 1,773 Apartments 88 420 452 Guest Houses 110 166 338 TOTAL 1,382 2,293 2,563 Sources Antigua Department of Tourism. - 88 - Table 7.7: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAt TOURISM - STAYOVER AND CRUISE-SHIP ARRIVALS AS A SHARE OF THE CARIBBEAN AREA a/ Jan.-April 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1. Stayover passenger arrivsls b_ Antigua 86,429 86,571 84,724 87,042 101,113 51,166 Totsl Carlbbean orao a/ 7,205,438 7,234,000 6,933,000 7,150,000 7,339,000 Ratlo of Antigus to Caribbean area 1.20 1.20 1.22 1.22 1.38 2. Cruise-shIp passenger err I va Is Antigua 70,226 107,094 113,357 66,768 51,987 Total Carlbbean ares a/ 3,569,000 3,805.000 3,590,000 3,480,000 3,620,000 Ratio of Antigua to Caribbean area 1.98 2.81 3.16 1.92 1.44 a/ CarIbbeon area Includes ,ll the Leeward end Windward Islands, the Dutch, French end English territories, Puorto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Jamaica, Bahemas, Barbados, Bermuda, Costs RIca, Dominican RepublIc, Haiti, Suriname, and Venezuela. bl Air arrivals only. Source: Caribbean Tourlsm Research and Dovolopment Centre, Barbados. - 89 - Tablo 8.1i ANTIGUA AND BARBUDAt COST OF LIVING INDEX Alcoholic Household Food Beverages Clothing Operations All and and Hous- Util- and Trens- and Mis- items Beverages Tobacco Ing Itles Accessories portation cellaneous Weights 1,000.0 428.8 36.0 233.2 55.5 74.7 100.0 71.7 (1969-100) Period average 1978 270.5 325.5 243.3 177.2 226.9 291.9 269.4 270.1 1979 314.2 367.2 289.7 190.5 315.9 322.8 385.0 301.6 1980 374.4 431.2 339.3 230.6 448.4 365.2 454.7 360.8 1981 417.3 485.6 380.7 250.0 475.2 426.6 495.0 410.1 1982 434.7 503.8 385.3 255.1 495.5 480.9 497.9 450.9 1983 444.9 513.4 396.6 255.7 495.7 511.2 497.9 492.0 End of period 1978 284.5 350.9 251.1 177.4 230.9 293.7 276.8 295.5 1979 339.0 390.2 317.5 207.6 368.6 349.2 410.0 338.7 1980 400.4 468.2 355.6 239.2 463.8 388.1 486.1 386.7 1981 428.5 500.5 380.7 258.0 474.7 436.9 497.9 436.5 1982 436.6 499.5 387.9 250.5 495.7 539.5 497.9 452.0 1983 452.3 525.8 387.2 258.1 495.7 529.1 497.9 499.7 (Percentage Change) Period average 1978 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.1 5.5 2.7 5.5 12.2 1979 16.2 12.8 19.1 7.5 39.2 10.6 42.9 11.7 1980 19.2 17.4 17.1 21.1 42.0 13.1 18.1 19.6 1981 11.5 12.6 12.2 8.4 6.0 16.8 8.9 13.7 1982 4.6 4.4 1.2 2.0 4.3 12.5 0.6 10.1 1983 2.3 1.9 2.9 0.2 - 6.3 - 9.1 End of period 1978 6.5 5.9 8.1 5.2 3.5 -- 5.7 25.9 1979 19.2 11.2 26.4 17.0 59.6 18.9 48.1 14.6 1980 18.1 20.0 12.0 15.2 25.8 11.1 18.6 14.2 1981 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.9 2.4 12.6 2.5 12.9 1982 4.1 3.8 2.4 -2.7 4.4 22.9 -- 5.4 1983 3.6 5.3 -0.2 3.0 - -1.9 - 10.6 Sourceas Ministry of Finance (Statistica Division). - 90 - Table 8.2: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: RETAIL PRICES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS December Sept. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 GasolIne (ECS per Imperial gallon) 3.95 4.74 4.96 4.96 4.96 Kerosene (EC$ per Imperial gallon) 3.26 4.19 4.34 4.34 4.34 Dl ers I (ECS per Imperial gallon) 3.42 4.27 4.65 4.65 4.65 Propane 100 lb. (ECS per cyllnder) 81.00 105.25 114.00 114.00 114.00 Propane 20 lb. (EC$ per cylinder) 18.50 20.70 22.15 22.15 22.15 Sources: West IndIes 01 Co.; and MlnIstry of Finance, Statistics DlvisIon. A r ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~A7Z4VI Q (~~~ 4j-~~~--~~ OCEAN ANTIGUA - ,r \-* 0- f,t < ,-fdrtet0e(C0at I-y °*tr O--A Ne~~~~~ ~~~n~~~~ho~~~~pe ~~~~~~ $~, A4 '-C INGTON [~~ ~ ~~~ 11l | n'.//nd.fa-RtBtt RN 1t ST , 4- st. NST G,_I_,4 - BARBUDA F I GEORGE, X, ,,, . S fI 1 f r 2 _. !0I 2 61'4V PAU L MoT Roods