A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY P U B-5421 DOMINICA Priorities and Prospects for Development oX (;3 kh 7` 1 i*-t { r~~03 A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY DOMINICA Priorities and Prospects for Development The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Copyright (© 1985 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK I8I8 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing October 1985 World Bank Country Studies are reports originally prepared for internal use as part of the continuing analysis by the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing member countries and of its dialogues with the governments. Some of the reports are published informally with the least possible delay for the use of govem- ments and the academic, business and financial, and development communities. Thus, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufacture and distribution. The designations employed, the presentation of material, and any maps used in this document are solely for the convenience of the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the World Bank or is affiliates concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its boundaries or national affiliation. The most recent World Bank publications are described in the annual spring and fall lists; the continuing research program is desaibed in the annual Abstracts of Current Studies. The latest edition of each is available free of charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Department T, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from the European Office of the Bank, 66 avenue d'lena, 75116 Paris, France. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Main entry under title: Dominica, priorities and prospects for development. (World Bank country study) 1. Dominica--Economic conditions. 2. Dominica-- Economic policy. 3. Investments--Dominica. 4. Public investments--Dominica. I. Series. HC156.5.Z7D663 1985 330.97298'41 85-20355 ISBN 0-8213-0627-8 PREFACE AND ABSTRACT This report is based on the work of an IBRD economic mission to Dominica in October 1984. The mission consisted of Mr. James Sackey (mission leader) and Ms. Dolores Velasco. Mr. Gerard Byam (IARM) and Ms. Dorla Humes (CDB) provided assistance to the mission on the formulation of the public sector investment program and the analysis of external debt, respectively. The economy of Dominica experienced a moderate GDP growth rate of about 4% in 1984. However, despite the completion of a three year Extended Fund Facility with the IMF, the balance of payments in 1984 has deteriorated as a result of a sharp increase in imports associated with the ongoing roads rehabilitation and no growth in exports as a result of CARICOM trade restrictions affecting Dominica. There are also indications that the public sector finances in 1984/85 are weaker than anticipated. The Government's program, which emphasized the curtailment of expenditures on wages and salaries, the elimination of subsidies to state enterprises, and better revenue collection practices, is commendable and efforts should continue in the same direction. The private sector's response to the Government's program in spite of significant incentives, including liberalization of prices, has, however, been weak. The main tasks ahead are: (a) to increase productivity in the traditional sectors (and consequently to reduce the unit cost of exports in order to maintain international competitiveness); (b) to continue to diversify the productive base of the economy through the promotion of enclave and assembly-type manufacturing, agro-processing industries and tourism; and (c) to improve the physical and supporting infrastructure. On the basis of the prudent economic management of recent past, and ability to rely on concessional inflows for the greater part of its external capital requirements, it is projected that the growth rate of GDP would average about 4% p.a. in the medium term. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit: East Caribbean Dollar Upon its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterling at the rate 1.00 = EC$4.8. In July 1976 the link with sterling was broken and the East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at the rate US$1.00 = EC$2.70. Since July 1976: EC$1.00 = US$0.370 or US$1.00 EC$2.700 ABBREVIATIONS AID Bank Agricultural, Industrial and Development bank BDD British Development Division CARICOM Caribbean Community CDB Caribbean Development Bank CFC Caribbean Food Corporation CIDA Canadian International Development Agency DBGA Dominica Banana Growers Association DCP Dominica Coconut Products DAMB Dominica Agricultural Marketing Board DTB Dominica Tourist Board EDF European Development Fund EDU Economic Development Unit ETB External Trade Bureau FAO Food and Agricultural Organization IARM Inter-Agency Resident Mission IDC Industrial Development Corporation IFAD International Fund for Agriculture Development OAS Organization of American States OECS Organization of Eastern Caribbean States TPI Tropical Products Institute (U.K.) UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNIDO United Nations Development Organization USAID United States Agency for International Development Fiscal Year July 1 to June 30 Palg I of 2 pages COUNTRY DATA - DOMINICA AREA POPULATION DENSITY 750 km2 76S500 (mld-1983) 102 par km2 Rate of Growth: 0.575 (from 1970 to 1951) 360 per km2 of arobis land POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1983) HEALTH 19S1 Crude 8irth Rate (par t000) 24.3 PopulotIon poer physician 4560 Credo Death Rate (per 1000) 5.1 Populatlon per hospital bed 230 Infant Mortolity (por 1.000 lIve births) 13.S INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP S of national Incoes. highest quintilo .. S owned by top 10 of owners lowest qulnttle .. Z owned by bottom 10 of owners ACCESS TO PIPED WATER ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY S of populatIon - urban .. % of population - urban - rural ,. - rural) NUTRITION (1978) EDUCATION (1981) Calarle intake as X of requirements 87.0 Adult literacy rate S 94.4 Per capita protein Intake (gross per day) 56.9 Prlmary achool enrollment S GNP PER CAPITA In 1983'/s US*970 9ROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1983 b/ ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (t, constant prices) US$ MID. S 177-82 1963 GNP at Market Prices 79.4 100.0 3.1 3.3 Gross Domestlc investomnt 21.5 27.5 11.1 9.2 gross National Savings 14.2 17.9 Current Account Dclnco -7.6 -9.6 Exports of Goods, NFS 32.9 4t.4 1.6 15.6 Imports of Goode, NFS 49.3 62.1 6.4 4.6 OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE AND PRODUCTIVITY (1863) (1981) (1981) Valuo Added Labor force c/ V.A. Per Worker Us4 MIR. 4 '000 S USS S Agrlcvltura 21.3 31.6 7.8 30.6 2431 30.7 Industry 11.8 17.5 4.0 15.7 2870 36.2 Services 34.2 50.9 7.8 30.6 9423 116.8 Unalloceted . 5.9 23.1 - Total/Average 67.3 100.0 25.5 100.0 7929 100.0 PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCE Concolidated Public Soctor Central Government (IC9 NIn.) S of GODP tE E M1.) S of gOP 1182/13 1883/84 1983 1i62/43 1983/64 1163 Current Receipts 104.1 121.1 52.0 57.7 70.0 29.5 Current Expenditure 105.3 112.2 50.3 62.6 70.3 30.7 Current Surplus/Daficit -1.3 8.9 1.7 -4.9 -0.3 -1.2 Capital Expondituroe 33.0 31.9 15.0 25.7 28.7 12.6 External Asicstenca (net) 3S.1 2046 13.6 33.0 19.6 12.2 a/ The Per Capita GNP ostliate Is at 1983 market pticoe. calculatod by the sein conversion technique as the 1983 World Atlas. National accounts are being reviewed. All other conversion to dollars In this table are at the average real exchange rete prevailing during the period. bl World Bank staff oatleetee. c/ Unallocated- conslste meisly of unemployed workers ceeking their first job. not Available not applicable Pege 2 of 2 Pages COUNTRY DATA - DOMINICA ONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1979 1980 ISe1 1982 1S83 (EC$ Millon outstanding end period) Money and Quasi money 73.8 67.7 70.7 80.9 82.9 Benk Credit to Public Sector 13.9 14.4 12.3 10.1 5.6 Bank Credit to Private Sector 37.7 47.4 58.2 67.5 74.4 (Percentages or Index Numbers) Money end Quasi moeoy as S of COP 60.5 43.3 39.0 40.7 38.3 General Price Index (1964 - 100) 398.8 520.6 589.7 615.7 64t.2 Annual percentage chenges iRa general Price Index 19.9 30.5 13.3 4.4 4.1 Bank credit to Public Sector 39.0 3.6 -14.6 -17.9 -44.6 Bank crodit to Private Sector -21.3 25.7 22.8 16.0 10.2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1980-83) 1i9_ 1982 1983 US8 Min. S (US$ Mililon) 1anenes 8.3 40.1 Exports of Goods, NFS 15.7 23.3 29.7 32.9 Citrus Products 0.9 4.3 Imports of Goods, NFS 54.4 51.6 49.8 49.3 TolIlet and Laundry Soap 7.1 34.3 Reosource Cap (deficit * -) -38.7 -28.3 -20.1 -16.4 All other comi_oditleo 4.4 21.3 Tetal 20.7 100.0 Factor Payments (net) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 Net Transfers 6.3 5.8 10.6 9.5 Belence on Current Account -32.4 -22.4 -9.6 -7.6 EXTERNAL DEBT, DECEMBER 31, 1993 US$ Mon. Net MLT Borrowing 2.1 2.7 6.9 3.7 Pubiic Debt, Incl. guaranteod 38.6 Olsbursement 2.3 3.1 7.5 4.0 Nenguarenteed Private Debt Amortization 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 Total outstanding & DOaburecd Capitel Grants 18.1 9.6 6.8 5.3 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1983 Other Capital (net) 13.6 10.1 -3.1 -1.4 Chango In Reserves S t- * Increase) -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 Public Debt, ncl. guaranteed 4.9 Non-Guocrnteed Private Debt Total outetanding 4 Disbursed RATE OF EXCHANGE BID1/1DA LENDIN4, December 1983 Since May 1976 US$1.00 * EC02.70 EC$1.00 - US$0.37 Outstanding * OlDbureed - 1.34 Undisbursed - 3.06 Outstanding Incl. Undisbursed - 4.40 Ratio of Debt Service to Export. of Goods end Non-Factor Services. not avellable not appilcable DOMINICA Priorities and Prospects for Development TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ix I. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS .... ........ 1 A. Domestic Sector ..... .................................... 1 B. External Sector ... ..........0... ....... .......... .. 5 C. Medium- and Long-Term Growth Prospects ............. 7 II. SECTOR PRIORITIES AND ISSUES ........................... 11 A. Development Constraints and priorities ............ 11 B. Agriculture . .... 0-0.00 ................. ....... .06.... ..... *. 11 C. Manufacturing Industry ... ....................17 D. Tourism . 19 E. Supporting Infrastructure .......................... 21 III. THE LEVEL AND ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT ....... .......... 25 A. Public Sector Investment ........................... 25 B. Issues of Program Implementation .....-............... 27 C. Influencing the Pattern of Private Investment ...... 29 ANNEX I: GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LISTS ..... ............ .... . . 33 ANNEX II: THE 1981 POPULATION CENSUS ........................ 37 STATISTICAL APPENDIX o .......... ......... 45 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd) TEXT TABLES Table No. Page No. 1. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators ............. ....... 2 2. Consolidated Public Sector Accounts .... ... 4 3. Balance of Payments ......6.......................#.. 6 4. Selected Macroeconomic Projections .... .............. 8 5. Selected Tourism Data .................. . ..... 20 6. Financing Public Sector Investment Program ......... 27 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Economic Overview and Development Prospects i. Domestic Sector. Economic developments in Dominica in recent years have been dominated by the rehabilitation activities which followed the damage caused by the hurricanes of 1979 and 1980. The substantial inflows of external assistance during the period supported reconstruction efforts in mainly agriculture and infrastructural facilities which led to unusually high GDP growth rates estimated at 11.3% p.a. for 1980 and 1981. In 1982-84, the growth rates of GDP returned to a normal trend, averaging about 3% p.a. The positive economic performance in recent years has resulted in improvements in the domestic savings from about negative 3% of gross domestic investment in 1982 to a positive 25% in 1983, compared to negative domestic savings during 1979-82. In spite of the negative domestic savings of that period, gross domestic investment as a percentage of GDP, was exceptionally high, averaging 35%. More recently, investment has averaged 29% of GDP, but dependence on external resources for investment purposes remains high. In order to reduce this dependence, more effort is needed in mobilizing domestic savings, especially in the public sector to support counterpart requirements of official foreign assistance. Since 1981, the rate of increase in consumer prices in Dominica has declined sharply, averaging below 5% in 1982-83 and reflecting the deceleration in the rate of increase in import prices and increased supply of domestic foodstuffs. The improvement in the economy over the past three years has resulted, according to the Government, in a decline in the unemployment rate. ii. The public sector finances have strengthened significantly in 1983, following the completion of a three year Extended Fund Facility program with the IMF. A current account surplus of about 4% of GDP was realized in FY83/84, compared to the deficit of the past three years which resulted from the devastation of the hurricanes of 1979-80. Both the Central Government and the rest of the public sector exhibited significant improvements in their finances. The Government's program, which emphasized the curtailment of expenditures on wages and salaries, the elimination of subsidies to state enterprises, and better revenue collection practices, is commendable and efforts should continue in the same direction. iii. External Sector. As a result of the favourable developments in the domestic sector and prudent public sector policies, Dominica's balance of payments position has improved steadily since 1981. The improvements resulted from increases in exports while imports were curtailed. In contrast, the balance of payments deteriorated in 1984 when the deficit on the current account increased to about 21% of GDP, compared to 11% in 1983. The poor performance reflected a sharp increase in imports associated with the ongoing roads rehabilitation and no growth in exports as a result of CARICOM trade restrictions affecting Dominica's exports, especially to Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago. The extent to which Dominica can successfully expand its exports will depend not only on its ability to increase production for exports, but also on the expansion of - ix - overseas markets through market identification and measures to keep its exports competitive. Recent export diversification and emphasis on policies to encourage foreign investments are providing the groundwork for expanding into other markets. The focus should continue to be placed on foreign investment with the expectation that through their contacts with the international market, these foreign investors can greatly assist in the identification of trade sources and the exploration of new markets. Dominica should also continue to explore involvement in several bilateral and multilateral trade relationships which might widen the scope of its international trade outside regional markets. iv. Growth Prospects. In view of the ongoing and projected high investment levels, the prudent short- and medium-term economic management of recent past constitutes a foundation for Dominica's development strategy designed to address the long-term issues of accelerating economic growth, generating employment and strengthening the balance of payments. The future depends upon the country's ability to mobilize and deploy domestic resources to complement external inflows. A key consideration is the expansion of non-traditional agriculture through diversification. The policy issues requiring urgent attention in order to promote agricultural diversification include market identification with external technical assistance, improved extension services, credit and land tenure. Equally important are policies to expand agro-based and assembly type manufacturing activities. Estimates of import requirements reflect the future evolution of limited import substitution as the economic structure changes, industrial production expands and food production increases to supply a larger proportion of domestic needs. The current account deficit of the balance of payments is projected to improve from about 21% of GDP in 1984 to 9% by 1995. v. The combination of assumptions, as previously noted, presupposes an expanded investment program which will have to be financed largely with external resources, at least in the medium term. It should be possible to finance the required foreign inflows in a way that will not unduly increase the debt service. The debt service ratio (including IMF debt) was 7.9% of exports of goods and nonfactor services in 1983; if the projected inflows to support investment materialize, it could average about 10.2% over the decade. In the medium term, however, Dominica's debt serving obligations increase sharply when obligations to the IMF are taken into consideration. The assumption made with respect to the long-term is that the country would be able to finance a significant proportion of its requirements on reasonably favourable terms, as in the past. If the projected inflows materialize and the recent sound management of the economy continues, the moderate economic outlook projected in which GDP is expected to grow by about 4% p.a., may be attained. Sector Priorities and Issues vi. The main export commodity of Dominica has been bananas. Since independence in 1978, however, the Government's policy has been directed at economic diversification into other agricultural commodities and manufac- turing. The main tasks ahead are to increase productivity in traditional sectors, such as bananas and coconuts; to continue to diversify the productive base of the economy; and to maintain and improve the physical infrastructure. The Government's economic policies are oriented towards these objectives. In particular, they are focussed at expanding the country's export capacity through addressing the problems of the productive sectors--agriculture, agro-based processing, and tourism; promoting produc- tive investment by alleviating the country's physical infrastructural constraints; and developing relevant economic and social institutions to support its development efforts. vii. Agriculture. Central to Dominica's development objectives is the need to release the productive potential of the agriculture sector so as to generate increased output and exports while expanding the opportunities for employment. Measures required to bring idle and underutilized land into full production, to increase agricultural productivity and to improve the efficiency of marketing institutions are underway. The issue of marketing, especially of the nontraditional crops, presents the main constraint to agriculture productivity and farm income in Dominica. The recent weak- nesses of the CARICOM market have made it necessary that Dominica should seek extra-regional markets, as well as promote agro-processing. Size limitations and shipping considerations dictate the need for a regional approach to the problem. The Government, along with other OECS members, should explore the establishment of a regional marketing agency for selected non-banana/sugar agricultural commodities for extra regional markets. The organization would operate along the lines similar to that of WINBAN and would negotiate with an external buying agent on consignment basis for a fee. With respect to agro-processing, the Government should continue joint venture arrangements with extra-regional partners with well defined knowledge for the product to be processed. viii. Manufacturing. The major industrial developments of recent years have been the growth of enclave and assembly-type manufacturing, as well as agro-based processing industries (of coconuts and citrus). As part of the Government's efforts to encourage manufacturing, a USAID Project Development Assistance Program (PDAP) advisor is providing technical assis- tance to the Government as a liaison between potential external sources of investment and the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC), one of Dominica's primary institutions responsible for implementing industrial policy. The management of IDC and the Agriculture and Industrial Development (AID) Bank, the two institutions primarily responsible for implementing industrial policy, is adequate for the size of their operations. However, technical assistance should be sought to support their activities to help local businesses identify projects for their finance. Closely related to, and following on, such entrepreneurial identification and reinforcement programs, there is a need for permanent and readily accessible business extension services to help local entrepre- neurs deal with technical, marketing, financial planning and other routine problems. ix. Tourism. Dominica's tourism potential lies in its rugged scenery which makes it very appealing to naturalists. It is therefore recommended that promotional efforts be directed mainly at those tourist segments attracted to hiking, mountain climbing, camping and land and boat safaris. Especially targeted should be cruiseship passengers and excursionists since these are suited to the type of potential and facilities available in Dominica. The development of marketing activities to date has been some- what haphazard, mainly because of the financial constraints facing the Dominica Tourist Board. In view of the Government's limited financial resources, efforts should be made to encourage private sector leadership in this sector, including promotional activities. x. Supporting Infrastructure. The Government's efforts in recent years in the provision of supporting infrastructure in transportation, energy, water, education, and health have been impressive. A four-year roads rehabilitation program (1981-85) is underway, the completion of which will improve internal transport infrastructure. The heavy rainfalls in November 1984 have caused substantial damage to the roads rehabilitation program and the Government is seeking additional external assistance. Utilizing technical assistance from the Caribbean Development Bank, the Government is addressing energy needs through the Inter-Ministry Energy Advisory Committee. Efforts in energy planning should appropriately be conducted in the context of the country's overall industrial development planning. xi. The educational system, while well developed, is deficient in meeting the current needs of the economy which are mainly in technical and commercial skills. Efforts are being made to improve the quality of education and delivery system with reforms in teaching methodologies and curricula oriented at diversification and vocationalism of the junior secondary or the upper primary level, placing greater emphasis on the preparation for the labour market. With technical assistance of UNESCO, the Government has identified a project in the technical-vocational field to further improve facilities and training for which it is seeking external financial assistance. With regard to health, the Government has embarked on health care delivery reforms aimed at the decentralization of services supported by a well equipped hospital. Besides the financial constraints limiting the speedy implementation of the program, personnel shortages may pose some problems. It is hoped that the establishment of the position of a primary health care nurse in 1981 will help alleviate the shortage. Dominica should, however, continue to seek and utilize external personnel through technical assistance programs with multilateral and bilateral agencies. The Level and Allocation of Investment xii. Public Sector Investment. The public sector investment program (PSIP) over the past three years has focussed on restoring and upgrading the supporting infrastructure. The Government's medium term program (1984/85-1986/87) aims at the completion of the ongoing program, notably the road-rehabilitation program and the expansion of supporting infrastruc- ture. The agricultural sector (including fisheries) will continue to play an important role in the PSIP. Of the proposed medium-term PSIP amounting to EC$157.0 million, the Government expects to mobilize about EC$139.2 million or 89% of the total program outlay from external sources. Some EC$89.0 million, or 57% of the total program outlay, are already available for ongoing projects with firm commitments, leaving EC$50.2 million (US$18.6 million) to be further mobilized. The Government expects to mobilize the additional resources on concessional terms. The domestic counterpart requirement amounts to EC$17.8 million and it could be financed from public savings if the projected levels are attained. It is worth noting that the estimated expenditures on the PSIP consist only of projects which are ongoing and those for which preliminary cost estimates are available. Excluded are projects for which no cost estimates are available with well identified components. xiii. Project Implementation was frequently weak in the past, with relatively long delays in the initiation and construction schedules which in some cases led to cost overruns. The reasons for this included a shortage of financial resources, delays in release of external funds, and weak project management and implementation capacity. The poor fiscal position of the central government has been largely overcome, but the administrative factors affecting the delays in the external funds when needed have persisted. The Government in 1983 has obtained technical assistance from the Organization of American States to establish a project monitoring system. The proposed system should remedy the administrative bottlenecks and strengthen the relationship between the approved program and the annual budget. xiv. Influencing the Pattern of Private Investment. The development of new public infrastructure and improvements to existing facilities will have an important indirect effect on the pattern of private investment. While public investment in the directly productive sector should play a relatively important role, the major portion of total investment in the future may come from the private sector. To achieve that, the Government will have to continue to promote private investment decisions through direct methods. Credit and interest rate policies will of course have considerable bearing, as well as, fiscal incentives and administrative controls over domestic and foreign private investment. xv. With respect to interest rate and credit policy, three aspects of financial policy have important implications for the levels and composition of savings and investment during the next decade. First, both the levels and structure of interest rates, which influence the mobilization and allocation of domestic resources, will need to be more realistic. In the past, real interest rates in Dominica have been negative although they did not lead to a significant capital flight or impeded domestic savings. Since 1982, all rates with the exception of savings deposits have however become positive. In addition, with effect from February 1, 1985, interest rates on savings deposits have been increased. Second, the various instruments of credit policy will have to be reexamined in the context of any changes in interest rate policies and the development of financial institutions. Third, financial institutions and instruments will have to be developed if the financial system is expected to grow in the near future. Increasing the level and improving the composition of domestic savings are of little value unless resources are allocated appropriately. The fundamental issue involved in allocating institutional credit in the future should be to ensure that labour-intensive manufacturing and agricul- ture enterprises obtain adequate financial resources through improving the credit-delivery system in general to allow small and medium scale indus- tries greater access to credit. xvi. The fiscal incentive system in Dominica also requires constant review including post-incentive appraisal and monitoring. Any proposal for modification however, will have to be based on a comprehensive study (as well as a requirement that the measures will be adopted as a regional approach); but a few comments can be offered on the principles of such a review. Investment incentives should be made less costly (in terms of revenue foregone), more effective, and administratively more manageable. The system also needs to focus on very specific goals instead of the present broad scope. Employment creation and export expansion deserve the highest priority. This could be done by changing either the selection of industries eligible for incentives or the incentives themselves. Under the first course, incentives would be confined to the industries complying with certain labour-intensity and export criteria. On the other hand, a modified system should provide a much more pronounced differential between export incentives and other incentives in favour of import substitution. CHAPTER I - ECONOMIC OVERVIEW AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS A. Domestic Sector Recent Economic Performance 1.01 Economic developments in Dominica in recent years have been dominated by the rehabilitation activities which followed the damage caused by the hurricanes in 1979 and 1980. The substantial inflows of external assistance during the period supported reconstruction efforts in mainly agriculture and infrastructural facilities which led to unusually high GDP growth rates. After two consecutive years of rapid expansion in 1980 and 1981 when GDP grew at an average rate of 11.3% p.a. at constant factor cost, the growth rates in GDP returned to a normal trend in 1982-84, as has been the experience of the past, averaging at about 3% p.a. The growth in GDP in 1983 and 1984 resulted mainly from the expansion in transport and communications, hotel and restaurant activities, manufacturing and agriculture. Performance over the past three years has been satisfactory and should provide the basis for self-sustained medium-term development following the completion of the reconstruction efforts. 1.02 The rehabilitation of the agriculture sector which was directed mainly at the banana and coconut industries, was completed in 1983 and expansion programs are underway. Value added in agriculture thus rose by 7% in 1983 and 1984, compared to 5% in 1982, as a result of growth in banana and coconut production as well as virtually all other crops. However, the high growth rates in agriculture over the recent past may not be sustained in the future as production activities return to normal. There was a slowdown in manufacturing output in 1982-84, compared to the rapid growth of about 20% p.a. experienced in 1980-81, as a result of a shortage of factory facilities; the construction of additional facilities is underway with assistance from the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB). Much of the growth in value added over the past two years has been generated by expansion in construction activities, especially in the road transport sector. Because of considerable damage to the road transport network resulting from the heavy rainfalls in late 1984, it is expected that reconstruction efforts will continue at the existing pace for the next several years. Growth in the other sectors of the economy during 1983 and 1984 was modest, with the main significant performance being exhibited by hotels and restaurants resulting from the relatively large increase in tourist arrivals. 1.03 Savings and Investment. The performance of domestic savings and investment in Dominica since 1979 has been dominated by the damage and disruption of economic activities caused by the hurricane of 1979 and 1980. Following a period of negative domestic savings in 1979-82, the positive economic performance in recent years, resulting from the comple- tion of major rehabilitation activities, has resulted in improvements in the domestic savings. Domestic savings which were negative 3% of gross domestic investment in 1982 increased to a positive 25% in 1983 but declined to positive 11% in 1984. In spite of the the negative domestic savings of the 1979-82 period, gross domestic investment as a percentage of GDP was exceptionally high, averaging 35% p.a., as a result of high project-related inflows associated with the reconstruction efforts during the period. Since 1982, gross domestic investment has declined to about 29% of GDP p.a., largely as the result of a relative decline in private investment which constitutes a return to normal levels of activity. In general, the private sector's response to the Government's economic program has been weak. Efforts to encourage private investment are, however, among the major concerns of the Government and are reviewed in Chapter III. 1.04 Despite the decline in gross domestic investment and improvements in domestic savings in recent years, the economy's dependence on external resources for investment purposes remains high. In order to reduce the dependence, more effort is needed in mobilizing domestic savings, especially in the public sector to support counterpart requirements of official foreign assistance. Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Change in Real GDP at Factor Cost (%) 16.4 6.2 2.3 2.4 4.5 Change in Consumer Price Index (%) 30.5 13.3 4.4 4.1 Gross National Savings (% GDI) -9.7 -6.0 50.9 60.6 36.7 Domestic Savings -31.2 -34.0 -2.6 24.7 10.5 Net Private Transfers 21.5 27.5 54.1 39.1 34.1 Net Factor Receipts 0.0 0.5 -0.6 -3.2 -7.9 External Capital Inflows (% GDI) 109.7 106.0 49.1 39.5 63.5 Official Grants 61.3 45.4 29.7 20.2 41.7 Concessionary Loans 7.2 12.8 35.2 24.8 17.4 Other 41.2 47.8 -15.8 -5.5 4.4 Gross Domestic Investment-GDI (% GDP) 51.0 31.5 26.6 27.2 32.6 Public 11.5 12.3 16.9 15.3 21.1 Private 39.5 19.2 9.7 11.9 11.5 Source: Statistical Appendix Tables 2.3 and 3.1. 1.05 Prices, Wages and Employment. The high rate of consumer price increases in the 1979-80 period was partly the result of shortages of domestic foodstuffs associated with the hurricanes, high wage settlements that increased aggregate demand, and the high international inflation that resulted from the second round of oil price increases. The rate of increase in consumer prices sharply declined in 1981 and averaged below 5X in 1982-83. The slowdown in the past two years reflected a deceleration in the rate of increase in import prices and increased supply of domestic foodstuffs and associated lower prices. Existing policies on price controls and regulation of the prices of utilities and petroleum products -3- as well as the deceleration in the international inflation rate should help to moderate domestic price changes in Dominica in the short-term. Price controls which pertain to imported consumer goods and the regulation of utility tariffs require constant review with the objective of their elimination, as they promote inefficient allocation of resources. 1.06 A three year wage agreement with civil servants covering 1982-84 provided for a 10% annual wage increase and was intended as a guideline for the rest of the economy. Some settlements nevertheless exceeded the guide- line, but the low rate of inflation of the past two years has helped to moderate wage demands. Although there are no official wage indexes, information available from the Labour Commission on recent wage settlements in unionized industries suggests that in the private sector the rate of increase of wages moderated from about 30% in 1980 to about 8% in 1983. Wage levels in Dominica remain relatively low compared to other Caribbean and most Western industrialized countries. The Government revised its legal minimum wages for most categories of employees covered by this legis- lation in 1984. The minimum wage per 40 hour week is EC$74.40 (US$27.55) for unskilled labour. 1.07 The wage changes initiated in 1981 are not expected to affect employment significantly. Although there are no reliable data available on employment, the rehabilitation activities in agriculture and road transpor- tation appear to have decreased unemployment. The 1981 census estimated the economically active population as 25,000, of which 18.5% were unemployed. Since then, the number of employees covered by the social security scheme, which excludes the self-employed, has been rising (see Statistical Appendix Table 1.2). Continuing expansion in agriculture and industry should contribute to reduce the level of unemployment below 10% in the future. The 1981 Census results indicated that the unemployment rate was highest for the 15-20 years age group (see Annex II). It is, there- fore, recommended that future employment programs should be directed at this group. Public Sector Finances 1.08 In 1981, under a new administration and with the support of an extended arrangement with the [MF, Dominica embarked upon a stabilization program which centered on fiscal reforms. The major elements of the fiscal reform program were: (a) a reorganization of the public finances so as to eliminate current budgetary transfers to the statutory bodies which had become a severe drain on the Government's budget; (b) adoption of new revenue measures to increase consumption taxes on a number of items including, gasoline taxes and customs duties; and (c) introduction of expenditure controls. Most significant on the expenditure side was the adoption of an incomes policy designed to keep government salary increases below expected inflation for the three-year period (1982-84). After successfully completing the program, the public sector finances have strengthened significantly and a current account surplus of about 4% of GDP was realized in FY83/84. -4- Table 2: Consolidated Public Sector Accounts (EC$ million) Actual Est. 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 Consolidated Current Account Balance -9.1 -3.5 -1.3 8.9 General Government 3.8 2.0 0.6 5.0 (Of which Central Government) (-5.0) (-3.7) (-3.9) (0.2) Nonfinancial Public Enterprises -12.9 -5.5 -1.8 3.9 Capital Expenditure & Net Lending 28.7 32.5 33.0 31.9 Overall Balance -32.1 -29.9 -30.4 -20.7 Financing (less capital receipt) External (Net) 31.9 28.1 38.2 20.6 (of which Capital Grants) (15.2) (10.0) (13.4) (10.4) Domestic (Net) 0.2 1.8 -7.8 0.1 Source: Statistical Appendix Table 5.8. 1.09 The improvements in the public sector finances resulted from the current account surplus in the operation of the General Government (the Central Government, the local governments, the Social Security Scheme, the Tourist Board and the Broadcasting Corporation). The consolidated current account of the nonfinancial public enterprises (the Banana Growers Associa- tion, the Central Water Authority, the External Trade Bureau, the Agricul- tural Marketing Board and the POrt Authority) also showed a surplus for the first time in FY83/84 since the hurricane period of FY79/80. The improve- ments in the finances of the nonfinancial public enterprises have resulted from the ongoing restructuring exercise. Two weak enterprises, the Forest Industries Development Corporation and the Lotteries Commission have been closed; while the Banana Growers Association (BGA) and the Port Authority have been restructured in order to make them financially viable; and the Agricultural Marketing Board (AMB) and the External Trade Bureau (ETB) are being merged into the Dominica Marketing Corporation (DMC). The restruc- turing of the BGA and the merger of the AMB and ETB into the DMC should consolidate the improved performance. 1.10 The remaining weak nonfinancial entity requiring close attention is the Central Water Authority (CWA). Despite substantial increases in water charges in 1983, the current account balance of CWA exhibited a deficit as a result of escalating costs, of which the 10% wage agreement for 1983-84 was a key element. Because of the topography of Dominica, the cost of providing potable water is high, compounded by high maintenance cost because the existing distribution system is technologically obsolete. The need to rehabilitate the entire distribution system is urgent in view of recent changes in demand resulting from changes in the way consumers use water, population structure, income and industrial structure. The financial position of the CWA can only be improved under the present circumstances by (a) regular revisions in the tariff system to reflect changing cost conditions, and (b) improvements in the efficiency of the -5- water supply through tackling CWAs technical problems which include inadequate storage and distribution facilities. Expansion in the bulk shipment of water to regional markets should help improve CWAs finances in the medium-term. Money and Credit 1.11 As part of its stabilization program with the IMF, the Government undertook to reduce its indebtedness to the commercial banks. This has been largely successful since 1982. However, despite its efforts to increase productive investment in the private sector, net private sector credit expanded only marginally in 1983 with negative implications for the level of private investment. There has also been a pronounced shift in the composition of outstanding commercial bank credit. The combined share of agriculture and manufacturing in outstanding bank credit fell from 36% in 1979 to 19% in 1983 while the share of the construction industry increased substantially. The decline in the share of agriculture was not made up by the expansion of credit by the nonbank financial institutions whose credits were directed mainly to the construction of factory facilities. Policies which aim at encouraging the commercial banks to increase their lending in agriculture and manufacturing sectors, identified by the Government as those with highest growth potential, should be formulated and implemented. 1.12 With a view to improving the allocation of bank credit and the incentives for savings, the Government should periodically review the structure of bank interest rates in order to reexamine the spread and the cost of banking. Interest rates in Dominica are determined by the participants in the financial market, although government policy has an important effect on their structure through the rates paid on the government debentures that must be held by the commercial banks to discharge the statutory reserve requirement, and through the tax on deposit liabilities, which widens the spread between deposit and lending rates. In addition, the Government uses moral suasion to influence the allocation of credit among users. The net effect of the banking regulation is that nominal interest rates paid on deposits in Dominica have remained low compared to other member countries of the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) area, although they did not lead to a significant capital flight or impeded domestic savings. Interest rates were negative in real terms until 1981, but all rates except that on savings deposits, have become positive in real terms since 1982 as a result of the sharp decline in the rate of increase in consumer prices. However, with the effect from February 11, 1985, interest rates on savings deposits have been increased from 2-1/2% to 4%. In support of this measure the Government has excepted savings deposits from the 1% bank deposit levy. Specific recommendations for improving the banking practices in Dominica in relation to promoting private investment are provided in subsequent sections of this report. B. External Sector 1.13 As a result of favourable developments in the domestic sector and prudent public sector policies, Dominica's balance of payments position improved steadily since 1981. The current account deficit improved from US$22.4 million in 1981 to US$8.6 million in 1983 (a reduction from 34% of GDP in 1981 to 11% of GDP in 1983). The improvements resulted from increases in exports while imports were curtailed. The deficit (especially the trade deficit) was financed by external official grants and loans, receipts from travel, and private transfers. In contrast, the balance of payments deteriorated in 1984 when the deficit on the current account increased to about 21% of GDP. The poor performance reflected a sharp increase in imports associated with the ongoing roads rehabilitation and no growth in exports as a result of CARICOM trade restrictions affecting Dominica's exports, especially to Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Guyana. An early solution to the problems of the CARICOM Multilateral Clearing Facility should enhance the potential for export growth by Dominica. Table 3: Balance of Payments (US$ million) Prel. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Exports of GNFS 15.7 23.3 29.7 32.9 33.0 Imports of GNFS 54.4 51.6 49.8 49.3 57.7 Resource Balance -38.7 -28.3 -20.1 -16.4 -24.7 Factor Services & Transfers 6.3 5.9 10.5 7.8 7.2 Current Account Balance -32.4 -22.4 -9.6 -8.6 -17.5 Public Grants 18.1 9.6 5.8 4.4 11.5 Public Borrowing (Net) 2.1 2.7 6.9 5.1 4.8 Other 12.2 10.1 -3.1 -0.9 1.2 Memo Items _ Resource Balance/GDP -66.8 -42.7 -28.0 -21.0 -29.2 Current Account Balance/GDP -56.0 -33.8 -13.4 -11.0 -20.7 Source: Statistical Appendix Table 3.1. 1.14 The extent to which Dominica can successfully expand its exports will depend not only on its ability to increase production for exports, but also on the expansion of overseas markets through market identification and measures to keep exports competitive. The long established concentration of trade with the UK and the rest of CARICOM is due mainly to the composi- tion of its exports. Recent export diversification and changes in policy to encourage foreign investments are providing the foundation for expanding into other markets. The emphasis should continue to be placed on encoura- ging foreign investment with the expectation that through their contacts with the international market, these foreign investors can greatly assist in the diversification of trade sources and the exploration of new markets. Dominica should also continue to explore involvement in several bilateral and muiltilateral trade relationships such as those being discussed with Japan which might widen the scope for its international trade outside regional markets. 1.15 External assistance to Dominica has largely been in the form of grants and concessional loans. The disruption of economic activities, resulting from the hurricanes of 1979/80 and efforts to rebuild the -7- economy, has led to a relatively rapid increase in external debt in recent years. The public and publicly guaranteed external debt, excluding debt to the IMF, increased by US$19.5 million between 1979 and 1984 to a total of US$32.2 million. About 73% of the outstanding debt is owed to the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB). Despite the rapid increase in external debt over the past 5 years, debt servicing has remained quite low relative to exports of goods and services because of the concessionary nature of most of the loans. In the medium term, however, debt servicing is likely to be relatively high because of Dominica's obligations to the IMF. Including the IMF, the outstanding external debt of Dominica rose from US$15.2 million, or 36.4% of GDP, at the end of 1979 to US$42.7 million, or 50.5% of GDP, at the end of 1984. The debt service ratio is thus about 12.4% of export of goods and services in 1984, compared to 3.3%, in 1979. Because of an anticipated shortfall in resources to effect repurchases of SDRs to the IMF during FY84/85, the Government concluded a Standby arrangement with the IMF to borrow the required resources. C. Medium- & Long-Term Growth Prospects 1.16 The sound economic management of the recent past constitutes a foundation for Dominica's development strategy designed to address the long-term issues of accelerating economic growth, generating employment and strengthening the balance of payments. The future depends upon the country's ability to mobilize and deploy domestic resources to complement external inflows. Since 1981, under a new administration and with the support of an extended arrangement with the IMP, Dominica embarked upon a stabilization program which centered on fiscal reforms. Implementation of the program was satisfactory and the Government has maintained a prudent short-term fiscal policy and provided the framework for accelerated growth. Nevertheless, given the need for imports of fuel and capital goods, external circumstances must be a major consideration in the formulation of an effective development strategy. Economic Projections 1/ 1.17 With the expectation of continued current account deficits in the balance of payments, reflecting the foreign inflows required, attention focuses on the projections for external trade. The medium and long term prospects are therefore best visualized in terms of the country's balance of payments. Projections for the next decade (1985-1995) have been made assuming the feasibility and adoption of the development policies reviewed in subsequent chapters which aim at expanding the country's export capacity, alleviating the physical infrastructure constraints, and developing relevant economic and social institutions to support economic diversification and employment generation. The relatively large investment program needed cannot be financed solely out of domestic savings; considerable foreign inflows (on concessionary terms) will continue to be required to supplement domestic savings. 1I See Statistical Appendix tables 9.1-9.5 -8- Table 4: Selected Macroeconomic Projections (In percentage) 1983 1984-86 1987-89 1990-92 1993-95 GDP (mp) Growth 2.8 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.5 Investment/GDP 27.9 32.9 27.8 24.8 25.3 Consumption/GDP 93.1 98.0 98.0 95.1 93.3 Domestic Savings/GDP 6.9 2.0 2.0 4.9 6.7 National Savings/GDP 16.9 12.0 11.6 13.9 15.3 Public Savings/GDP 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.1 Resource Gap/GDP 21.0 30.9 25.8 19.9 18.5 BOP/GDP a/ -11.0 -20.9 -16.2 -10.9 -9.9 Debt Service/Export GNFS b/ 3.3 5.6 6.7 7.7 7.9 Debt Service (including IMF) 5.8 12.4 11.6 8.9 7.9 a/ Refers to Balance of Payments Current Account Deficit as a percentage of GDP. b/ Excludes the IMF. Source: Statistical Appendix Tables 9.1-9.5. 1.18 The investment program is projected to raise the level of investment slightly above 30% of GDP during 1985-87 and thereafter decline to about 25% by the end of the decade. The program is expected to sustain a growth rate oE GDP of about 4% p.a. in real terms, provided the imports of goods (especially capital and intermediate) grow at an average annual rate of about the same magnitude in real terms. The balance of payments depends upon the performance of exports, which could grow in real terms at an annual rate of about 4% during the next decade, and transfers to the private sector (including remittances of Dominicans living abroad) which is projected to grow in nominal terms by about 8% p.a. The moderate export growth is also one direct source for the expected increase in incomes and employment that should emerge from the development strategy. 1.19 If these assumptions are realized (and they are considered plausible), the total capital inflows required over the period appear to be reasonable and the economy's dependence upon such inflows could be much less in 1990 and thereafter than is now the case. Any export projections, however, depend on the assumptions relating to the performance of the domestic economy. In the above analysis the projections hinge on the expectations of continued expansion of agriculture, and export manufacturing. Given the unexploited potential in agriculture and agro-based manufacturing, there are good prospects for rapid growth, provided project-related aid resources to finance the required supporting infrastructure continue to flow in at the anticipated rate on a timely basis. It is expected that growth in agriculture in the first half of the decade will be relatively modest at about 5% p.a. followed by an average rate of about 3-4% p.a. in the second half of the decade. The projections reflect ongoing efforts to rehabilitate and diversify the sector. The growth in manufacturing is expected to be slow at the initial stages during the period of the construction of factory facilities, thereafter it is projected to be modest at above 5% per annum. The other services are projected to grow at an average rate of about 4% p.a. in the medium term, declining to 3% p.a. thereafter as a result of the assumed further contraction of the Government sector. - 9 - 1.20 On the basis of the projected expansion in investment which will boost construction activities and the expected growth in agriculture and manufacturing, the unemployment rate, which is currently estimated by the Government to be 13%, may be expected to decline below 10% by the end of the decade. Personal incomes are thus expected to increase as well as consumption expenditures. The consumption/GDP ratio, which stood at 96.8% in 1984, is expected to remain very high in the medium term and decline to about 92% by 1995 thereby resulting in an increase in the Domestic Savings/GDP ratio. Resource mobilization policies aimed at restraining consumption should be pursued. 1.21 The strengthening of the balance of payments is but one element of a balanced development strategy. Another concern is the management of the public finances. After successfully completing a three year EFF program with the IMF, the public sector finances have strengthened signifi- cantly in 1983. A current account surplus of about 1% of GDP was realized in 1983. In the medium-term, the pressures on the public sector finances are expected to be high as a result of debt service payments to external agencies (including the IMF). Nevertheless, on the basis of a projected real growth in current revenues of about 2.5% p.a. during 1984-1989 and the growth in current expenditures of almost the same magnitude, the public sector savings as a percentage of GDP is projected at about 1.8% during the period. The projections are based on the expectation that policies with respect to the restructuring of the nonfinancial public enterprises, notably the Banana Growers' Association and the merger of the Agriculture Marketing Board and the External Trade Bureau into the Dominican Marketing Corporation, will help improve their finances. Similarly, the Central Government tax revenues are expected to maintain an average ratio of about 27% of GDP as a result of continued improvements in tax administration and expansion in the tax base. On the other hand, in order to attain the projected growth of about 2.5% p.a. in public sector current expenditures, Central Government expenditures (especially those relating to wages & salaries) should be restrained, as in the recent past, by moderation in employment and wage practices if the expected public sector savings target is to be met. Implications 1.22 Assumptions about both imports and exports determine the projections of foreign inflows required to finance balance of payments deficits. A key consideration is the expansion of non-traditional agriculture through diversification. The policy issues requiring urgent attention in order to promote agricultural diversification include market identification, improved extension services, credit and land tenure. Equally important are policies to expand agro-based and assembly type manufacturing activities. These are discussed in Chapter two below. Estimates of import requirements reflect the future evolution of limited import substitution as the economic structure changes, industrial production expands and food production increases to supply a larger proportion of domestic needs. The combination of assumptions presupposes an expanded investment program which will have to be financed largely with external resources at least in the medium term. It should be possible to finance the required foreign inflows in a way that will not unduly increase - 10 - the debt service. The debt service ratio (excluding IMF debt) was 3.3% of exports of goods and nonfactor services in 1983 (Statistical Appendix Table 9.2). By including Dominica's obligations to the IMF, the debt service ratio increases to 7.9%. Assuming Dominica's additional financing needs could be made on the same concessional terms as in the recent past, the debt service ratio (excluding the IMF) is projected to increase from 3.9% of exports of goods and nonfactor services in 1984 to about 8.5% in 1990 and decline to 8.0% in 1995. Including Dominica's obligations to the IMF, the debt service ratio averages 12% during 1984-89, compared to 6.2% excluding the .UMF obligation, which constitutes a significant burden in the medium term. - 11 - CHAPTER II - SECTOR PRIORITIES AND ISSUES A. Development Constraints and Priorities 2.01 Economic development in Dominica is constrained by limited finan- cial and human resources, inadequate economic infrastructure and frequent natural disasters (hurricanes, floods, etc.) that have, in recent years, affected all sectors, especially agriculture. The country's small size (750 sq. km. and a population of about 80,000), coupled with its rugged physical features, render the cost of administration, infrastructural development and the provision of public services relatively burdensome on a per capita basis. Dominica's volcanic origin, however, provides a number of hot springs and geysers together with some spectacular scenery, which is potentially attractive for selective tourism. The island has no signifi- cant white sand beaches, and the rugged mountainous terrain and numerous swift non-navigable rivers present formidable communications difficulties for the population. Though the rivers provide a source of mini hydro-power potential and consequently low dependence on imported fuel, the above conditions on the whole define a narrow resource base because of the absence of both metallic minerals and hydrocarbons. Because of the high annual rainfall levels (some parts of the island's interior receive as much as 750 cm of annual rainfall), a strong traditional export agriculture has developed, producing among other crops, bananas, citrus and coconuts. 2.02 The main export commodity of Dominica has been bananas. Since independence, however, the Government's policy has been directed at econo- mic diversification into other agricultural commodities and manufacturing. The main tasks ahead are to increase productivity in traditional sectors, continue to diversify the productive base of the economy, and improve the physical infrastructure. The Government's economic policies are oriented towards these objectives. In particular, they are focused at expanding the country's export capacity through addressing the problems of the main productive sectors--agriculture, agro-based processing, and tourism-- promoting productive investment by alleviating the country's physical infrastructural constraints and developing relevant economic and social institutions to support its development efforts. B. Agriculture 2.03 Central to Dominica's development objectives is the need to develop the productive potential of the agriculture sector so as to generate increased output and exports while expanding the opportunities for employment. The sector accounts for about 30% of GDP, 55% of export revenue and 60% of the total labor force. Because of past damage inflicted by hurricanes (1979-80) the agricultural sector in the recent past has performed below its potential. Measures required to bring idle and under- utilized land into full production, to increase agricultural productivity and to improve the efficiency of marketing institutions are underway. Government policy generally aims at improving the standard of living of farm families while encouraging the balanced exploitation of the arable and forest resources of the country, consistent with its conservation objectives. - 12 - Land Tenure Policy 2.04 Besides the effects of recent hurricanes on Dominica's agricul- ture, inadequate performance in the past could also be traced to the uneconomic utilization or underutilization of land (e.g. poor husbandry policies) arising from insecure land tenancy policy. The issue of land tenure arose from government ownership of a considerable amount of estate land previously private owned, while a large proportion of farmers were either tenants or own holdings of less than one acre. Land fragmentation was also a major problem outside Government owned lands. Recent Govern- ment's land policy includes the development of lands in its possession and settlement of rural population on these lands with secure land tenancy arrangements, through a program of Integrated Rural Development. It also aims at promoting the development of the cooperative movement in the agriculture sector. 2.05 The Government has received technical assistance from the Organization of American States (OAS) in the last 3 years to support its efforts to design and execute specific projects for the development of its estates and their surrounding areas. The approach involves the formulation of an integrated rural development program designed to provide the current settlers with the opportunity of owing the land and operating it to its full capacity. Support services include provision of credit for purchase of land and cash flow, inputs, extension, capital improvements, feeder road construction, and social service improvements including the upgrading of health and education services. The program is ongoing and progress has been satisfactory. Further external assistance is expected from the European Development Fund (EDF) and other bilateral agencies. Extension Services 2.06 While the extension services of the export marketing agencies provide their clients with adequate facilities, the extension services of the Ministry of Agriculture are inadequate to reach the small farmer. The ratio of extension officer to farmers is relatively low and the ministry is constrained by inadequate service centres, poor coordination of support services and low farmer training. However, these are being rectified with medium-term technical assistance provided by external donors. Local personnel also participate in the University of the West Indies annual 2-week summer extension training workshop for extension personnel in the windward islands. The Government is attempting to upgrade extension service and technical assistance to individual farmers through the Agricultural Extension Improvement Plan 1982-85 (financed in part by the US Agency for International Development--USAID). The program provides for scholarships for the short and medium term training of extension staff at all levels, short term training for farmers, and badly needed capital improvements to extension facilities. Furthermore, through the Caribbean Agricultural Extension Project (CAEP), also with USAID financial assis- tance, the physical infrastructure, notably buildings and related facili- ties, have improved. There are also plans underway to establish two tertiary level institutions, one for crops and the other for livestock training with external assistance (France and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization--FAO). - 13 - 2.07 Despite the considerable progress being made in recent years to improve agricultural extension, three issues still require close attention: (a) institutional--deficiencies associated with the structure and personnel within the organization; (b) program content--weaknesses in the program content of extension especially in marketing and farm management; and (c) delivery of extension--failure of the extension program to reach the target groups viz, farm families, women, cooperatives and farmer organizations. The Government is cognizant of these weaknesses and in phase two of its Agricultural Extension Improvement Plan hopes to tackle them. The principal constraint to the proposed program, which is very comprehensive, is finance and the Government will require considerable external financial and technical assistance to support it. 2.08 Another weakness of the Government's efforts in extension is the lack of adequate feedback from agricultural research because of the inadequate reporting and evaluation system in extension. The country itself has no comprehensive agriculture research program although the Government encourages research into new farming systems. Existing extension requirements for results from research are partially met by adapting information derived from institutions such as CARDI, IICA, CARDATS and WINBAN that operate in the region. Furthermore, a variety of adaptive on-farm research and demonstrations, relevant to the needs of farmers in a particular area, are formulated and implemented, as resources allow. To derive the maximum benefits from the work of these institutions for Dominica's agriculture development, the Ministry of Agriculture shotild upgrade its coordination and dissemination process. Marketing 2.09 Marketing of the major export crops bananas and coconuts is well organized and properly coordinated. The Banana Growers' Association and the Citrus Growers' Association are responsible for their respective commodities, while the private traders or companies handle other crops. Serious deficiencies prevail in the handling and distribution of other crops and livestock products. The private traders who handle most of the inter-island trade, organize harvesting, transportation, domestic sales and packaging for export; but the manner in which they handle products requires improvements. The Government is attempting to improve their role in external marketing and has recently organized them into an association with the objective of coordinating their operations and improving market knowledge. 2.10 Presently, the emphasis of the extension agents' involvement with the farmers is primarily in relation to crop and livestock production. However, it appears that problems of marketing are the major limitation to farmer productivity and income. Adequate coordination does not exist - 14 - between the various private marketing agencies, such as the "hucksters" and other market channels, and the farmers. The impact of these features is high cost of production resulting from poor organization and management of agricultural enterprises at the farmer level, and the lack of knowledge of extra-regional markets have limited Dominica's export potential. Consider- able efforts are needed to reduce cost through improved organization and management in order to be able to compete effectively not only in the extra-regional markets but also in the Caribbean region. 2.11 The lack of external marketing knowledge and associated strategy is recognized by the Government which is committed to find an urgent solution. As a first step, the Government plans to merge the activities of the Agriculture Marketing Board (which was responsible for agricultural exports mainly to extra-regional markets) with the External Trade Bureau which is currently responsible for the import of sugar and bulk rice. While the restructuring is still incomplete it is hoped that the new organization, through the use of the British Development Division (BDD) market intelligence assistance, will provide the leadership for extra- regional exports. In consultation with the Ministry of Agriculture, the new organization will establish a farm record dealing with the potential commodities to produce for exports. The Government also intends to promote private efforts in external marketing through improved coordination of services, including shipping. 2.12 The issue of marketing presents the major constraint to agricul- ture productivity and farmer income in Dominica. The recent limitations of the CARICOM market have made it imperative that Dominica should seek extra-regional markets, as well as promote agro-processing. Size limita- tions and shipping considerations dictate the need for a regional approach to the problem. The Government, along with other OECS members, should explore the establishment of a regional marketing agency for selected non- banana/sugar agricultural commodities for extra regional markets. The organization could operate along the lines similar to that of WINBAN and negotiate with an external buying agent on consignment basis for a fee. With respect to agro-processing, the Government should continue to encourage joint venture arrangements with extra-regional partners with well defined market knowledge for the products to be processed. Issues Related to Main Crops 2.13 Banana Industry. The banana industry is the largest single user of agricultural land, and accounts for approximately 10,000 acres or about 25-30% of total land under cultivation. The industry (production, packaging and marketing) is the most important economic activity in the country, accounting for more than 40% of all merchandise exports in 1983, compared to 60% in the pre-hurricane period. It also employs about 50% of the country's 14,000 farmers and about 40% of the total labour force, at least on part time basis. Although the industry has recovered following the hurricanes of 1979-80, net returns to farmers are low because of the high cost of production, resulting from the relatively low yields, and the recent depreciation of the UK sterling relative to the US dollar. - 15 - 2.14 The recent weak performance of the industry has been precipitated by a number of events, commencing with an infestation of leafspot disease in early 1979 followed by damage caused by two hurricanes in 1979 and 1980, and by the appreciation of the US dollar against the UK sterling since 1982. Notwithstanding the negative effects of the unfortunate events, it is also recognized that an additional set of more fundamental problems constrain the performance of the industry. Besides certain environmental and geographical features of Dominica that preclude yields at levels found in other countries in the Caribbean, low productivity in recent years are attributable to erratic availability of fertilizers, poor husbandry and pest control. The organization and management of the industry has also been identified as deficient by a Task Force on bananas appointed by the Government in late 1981. 2.15 The Banana Growers' Association (BGA) is the agency responsible for the production and marketing of bananas, provision of a range of services to farmers including extension, inputs, pests and disease control, packaging and transportation to port. The BGA owns and manages boxing plants throughout the island which pack the majority of the bananas exported. The remaining bananas are packed in the field by growers, either in private or cooperative operation. A history of weak management resulting from inadequate staff and poor accounting practices and low revenues in the hurricane years placed the BGA in a precarious financial position which caused it to incur substantial debt to private lending agencies. 2.16 The Government's response to the industry's problems has included the seeking of management assistance for the sector from the BDD, technical and financial assistance from the USAID and loan rescheduling by the commercial banks, which provided some relief for the BGA to continue its operation. Over the past three years, the management of BGA has improved; disease control has been improved, wastage at BGA's boxing plants has been minimized and field packing has been expanded (to about 30%, as of July 1984) in order to reduce costs. Furthermore, recent improvements have included legislation in July 1984 which restructured the BGA into two new statutory agencies: the Dominica Banana Marketing Corporation (DBMC) and the Dominica Banana Growers Association (DBGA). The DBMC is the sole exporter of bananas and carries all the functions of the former BGA except the registration of banana growers. The DBGA represents the interest of the growers and acts as a "trade union". 2.17 The reorganization of the industry and attempts aimed at reducing costs should help improve the grower's return in the short run. In the long run, policies oriented at improving productivity should be pursued. A higher rate of return from the combined reduction of costs and increased yields should promote investment in new planting and produce greater employment opportunities. Further external assistance is however needed by DBMC to finance programs to increase productivity and to improve its financial position. 2.18 Citrus Industry. Limes, grapefruits, and oranges represent the main citrus fruits produced in Dominica. In 1983, they accounted for over - 16 - 7% of the value of agricultural production. Limes are mostly processed into juice and oil for exports; some grapefruit is exported mainly to the UK market and oranges are mainly used domestically although about one quarter is exported to other regional markets. Following the hurricane of 1979, citrus production declined by almost 50%; a rehabilitation program is under implementation but progress has been slowed by marketing constraints as a result of the loss of external competitiveness particularly with respect to grapefruit. 2.19 The marketing problems include inadequate market identification, lack of shipping facilities and the disadvantages of small scale. To aid in the identification of more lucrative markets, the Government is utili- zing technical assistance from the Tropical Products Institute (TPI) of the UK Overseas Development Administration. An initial investigation by TPI found limited potential for increased citrus exports in the Caribbean region in the absence of an aggressive marketing strategy to neutralize the competitive advantages of, especially, Puerto Rico and the neighboring French Islands. In the short and medium term, the only outlet especially for Dominican grapefruit and oranges is to capitalize on the market potential available through increased inter-island trade within the CARICOM framework. 2.20 Exporting outside the region are constrained by inadequate shipping and high cost. Because of the diseconomies of small scale of production of citrus farming in Dominica, it is unable to compete with other low cost, high volume suppliers (notably South Africa and the Mediterranean countries). Dominican grapefruits are only exported to the European Economic Community (EEC) during the off-season period for other major producers, a six week period in September to October. While improved orchard management could increase the percentage of fruits available during the critical six weeks period, demand in the EEC is not projected to increase substantially. Dominican oranges, because of their high acidity and pale color typical of the tropical variety, are not in demand at the EEC. The future of the Dominican citrus industry therefore depends on its potential for processing. 2.21 The Government, in 1981, acquired from a foreign owner a lime processing plant which had been shut down after the hurricanes. An agreement has been reached with the Caribbean Food Corporation (CFC) for partnership in the operation and the plant is currently producing lime juice at approximately 50% capacity. For the venture to be profitable, output of lime must increase substantially. Furthermore, the Government is investigating the feasibility of developing the processing of white grapefruit of the Dominican type as juice or canned fruit at the lime plant. Preliminary indications are negative, partly because the quantity of grapefruit available for processing is not large enough (the previous plant owner discontinued its grapefruit operation in the late 1970s because of the scale problem). In order for citrus processing to be profitable and remunerative to the farmer, the scale of production must be increased substantially. The long-run prospects for the citrus industry therefore depend on an expansion of output mainly in lime and grapefruit production for processing and orange for the regional market by utilizing improved marketing techniques. - 17 - 2.22 Coconut Industry. The potential for an expanded agro-based industry for coconuts will be discussed below. The main issues relating to this sector is the scope for output expansion. The program for replanting and rehabilitation of the industry following the hurricanes of 1979-80 has proceeded smoothly; coconuts destroyed by the hurricanes have been replanted, while the expansion program is about 75% complete. By the end of 1983, the production of copra (dried coconut meat used for processing into oil) was close to pre-hurricane levels. There are indications that improved application of fertilizer and good management, besides increasing yields at existing plantations, have also contributed to the early recovery of the hurricane damaged trees. There are strong incentives to increase coconut production as there exist considerable unused capacity in the local processing plant while the prospects for marketing coconut oil under the existing CARICOM Oils and Fats Agreement are favourable. C. Manufacturing Industry 2.23 The potential for the development of domestic-oriented manufac- turing activities in Dominica is constrained by the small size of the domestic market. The exploitation of the regional market is also constrained by competing products from other islands and, in recent months, the weaknesses of the CARICOM Multilateral Clearing Facility. Neverthe- less, growth in manufacturing in recent years has been substantial based on the processing of natural resources and agricultural products and the establishment of enclave-type light assembly manufacturing activities. Substantial opportunities still exist in agro-processing for coconuts, citrus and other exotic tropical plants. Industrial Policy 2.24 The major industrial development of recent years has been the growth of enclave-type light assembly manufacturing industries in two industrial estates that the Government is developing on the western side of the island. Over 70,000 square feet of factory facility have been constructed with about 40,000 additional square feet under construction. The demand for factory space (especially the 3,000 sq. feet units) has exceeded supply and negotiations are ongoing with the CDB for further financial assistance for the construction of factory facilities. The Government of Dominica is committed to the promotion of private industrial development in order to increase employment, diversify the productive structure of the economy and increase export earnings. As part of its participation in the Caribbean Basin Initiative, the USAID is providing an assistance of US$12 million to the ECCB to be onlent to private sector entrepreneurs for the construction of factory facilities in member countries. 2.25 In an open economy with an extremely small domestic market such as Dominica, industrial development must be outward-oriented. Enclave type labour intensive industries can, in the short and medium term, provide avenues for employment and increases in foreign exchange earnings. The Government of Dominica is committed to the promotion of private industrial development in order to increase employment, diversify the productive base of the economy and increase export earnings. It aims, in particular, to: - 18 - (a) encourage the exploitation of local raw materials and resources in industrial production; (b) encourage foreign and joint-venture labor-intensive industries (including the cottage type); and (c) stimulate the development of indigenous entrepreneurs. As part of this effort, a USAID Project Development Assistance Program (PDAP) advisor is providing technical assistance to the Government as a liaison between potential external sources of investment and the Industrial Development Corporation, one of Dominica's primary institutions responsible for implementing industrial policy. Institutional and Infrastructural Support 2.26 The two institutions primarily responsible for implementing industrial policy are the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and the Agriculture and Industrial Development (AID) Bank. The IDC handles all the necessary aspects of planning, promoting, screening, negotiating, implemen- ting and monitoring private investment projects and proposals in the country. Working closely with the AID Bank it has moved aggressively in attracting potential investors to Dominica and the construction of factory facilities. The AID Bank is responsible for the financing and management of the construction of factory facilities, as well as the provision of capital for local entrepreneurs. Its major sources of funding is the CDB which prpvides loan funds for both factory facility construction and industrial credit. Given that its activities have increased dramatically over recent years, it should continue its efforts to solicit resources from other sources. 2.27 The management of the two Development Finance Institutions (DFI) is adequate for the size of their operations. However, a shortage of intermediate technical personnel exists; the AID Bank, for example, identi- fied the need for a building inspector to facilitate the speedy implementa- tion of its mortgage scheme. Additional technical assistance should be sought to support the activities of the two DFIs and to help local businesses identify projects for their finance. The provision of training for ongoing personnel on customer relations, accounting, credit analysis, etc., would be an advantage. Such a program of periodic training through seminars, conferences, etc., could be conceived in the context of a regional initiatLve by expanding the functions of existing institutions. 2.28 Some small local entrepreneurs have the aptitude and knowledge required to succeed. Others have the potential, but need help to realize it. Various studies have identified certain apparent characteristics of entrepreneurship, and have outlined screening and training programs designed to enhance entrepreneurial performance. Small business training and problem-solving seminars initiated in some of the Indian states and in the Philippines have shown good results. These approaches need to be systematically extended and adapted in Dominica through government's efforts. Closely related to, and following on, such entrepreneurial - 19 - identification and reinforcement programs, there is a need for permanent and readily accessible business extension services to help local entrepre- neurs deal with technical, marketing, financial planning and other routine problems. Such services may be associated with the existing DFIs or may be provided independently. 2.29 Other kinds of productive activities need to expand in Dominica to support manufacturing. They include: (a) maintenance and repair facilities--garages, machine shops; (b) warehousing and distribution-- regional and local depots for foodcrop collection and storage, and for distributing building materials, and (c) organized services, such as garbage and trash collection or building maintenance, and contract plowing, spraying, etc. As agro-based industries expand, they require a more sophisticated processing, storage and distribution network (including shipping) to handle both inputs and outputs. These facilities, especially when tied into effective cooperatives, such as those being promoted by the Government, can help to reinforce and guarantee agricultural credits to the producer as well as financing the middleman or cooperative. Possibilities for such interlocking systems should be actively explored. Agro-Industries 2.30 One of the main concerns of the Government is the absence in the past, of forward and backward linkages within agriculture and the rest of Dominica's economy, with implications for import substitution and non- traditional exports. In a program to emphasize linkages between various sectors of the economy the Government is promoting the agro-based manufac- turing industries. A particularly successful outcome is the Dominica Coconut Products (DCP). It uses local copra to produce edible coconut oil for domestic consumption and export and commercial coconut oil, which combined with imported chemicals and tallow, produces laundry and toilet soaps for export and local consumption. 2.31 The development of agro-industries offers considerable promise for import substitution for exports and serves as an outlet for an industrialization process based on the country's agricultural resources. However, besides the DCP activities the overall prospects for other agro- based products is not very promising. Given existing technologies, agro- processing for exports is subject to economies of scale and its development should be restricted to a narrow range of carefully selected commodities. They may include specialty or exotic products such as patchouli oil, oloe vera, passionfruit, and lime juice. The Government has established the Dominica Agro-Industries Ltd. to explore these possibilities using the existing underutilized lime juice plant. D. Tourism 2.32 The tourism sector is relatively small, but has shown dramatic growth in recent years. The total expenditure by visitors is estimated to have grown by about 20% p.a. between 1979 and 1983. After a period of rapid growth of visitor arrivals between 1976-78, there was a systematic decline between 1979-82 as a result of the hurricanes of 1979-80 and the - 20 - general decline in Caribbean tourism in 1981-82 following the depression in the industrial countries. Much of the growth in 1983 is accounted for by an increase in cruiseship passengers and stayover visitors, mainly from the US. Promotional efforts should thus be directed at these markets. Table 5: Selected Tourism Data 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total Number of Visitors ('000) 28.1 24.8 22.9 22.1 28.5 Of which Cruiseship passengers 7.8 7.4 5.5 2.4 6.1 Excursionists 4.8 3.1 2.2 1.5 2.7 Stayover visitors 15.5 14.3 15.2 18.3 19.7 Average Length of Stay (number of nights) 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.1 6.1 Total Expenditure by visitors (US$ million) 26.3 29.3 31.7 45.8 51.3 Source: Statistical Appendix Table 7.3. Issues 2.33 Potential. Dominica's tourism potential is generally not typical of the other mijor Caribbean countries because of the limited availability of white sand beaches. Nevertheless, it can offer a wide range of tourist attractions with unique characteristics. As the most mountainous and rugged Caribbean island, it provides spectacular scenery which presents a setting that is potentially attractive for tourism. Within the mountinous centre of the Lsland, there is ample evidence of recent volcanic activity, with numerous cases of fumaroles, small geysers and hot springs. In addition, the dense tropical forest, deep valleys and flowing rivers and waterfalls should be attractive to naturalists. It is therefore recommended that promotional efforts should be directed mainly at the tourist segment attracted to hiking, mountain climbing, camping and land and boat safaris. Especially targeted should be cruiseship passengers and excursionists, since these are suited to the type of potential and facili- ties available in Dominica. 2.34 Hotel Facilities. Very little tourism infrastructure exists in Dominica. There are few night clubs, restaurants and entertainment facili- ties of international standard. Small hotels form the basis of the tourism industry, offering less than 400 guest bedrooms. An analysis of hotel occupancy rates indicates that tourist accommodation capacity is a major constraint at the moment. There is also the need for an improvement in the quality of services. The Government is seeking to expand tourist accommo- dation and touIist oriented commercial facilities and is therefore offering attractive incentives to investors in the sector. Its own limited resour- ces preclude any direct involvement in the sector. 2.35 Marketing. The growth of the tourism industry is critically dependent on thLe identification of potential markets (in the case of Dominica, a limited segment attracted to its unique characteristics) and - 21 - the implementation of an aggressive promotional campaign. The development of marketing activities to date has been somewhat haphazard, mainly because of the financial constraints facing the Dominica Tourist Board (DTB). The present budgetary constraints of the DTB, resulting in part from the ongoing Central Government economic stabilization program with the IMF, has limited its promotional activities. The DTB has benefited from its associ- ation with regional institutions such as the Caribbean Tourist Association and the Caribbean Tourism Research Centre. But has not been able to utilize fully facilities available to it at trade shows, seminars, etc., organized by these institutions. The budget constraint has also impacted negatively on its staff position and has also affected training. Some external assistance for training has been received from the EEC. In view of the Government's limited financial resources, efforts should be made to encourage private sector leadership in this sector, including promotional activities. E. Supporting Infrastructure Energy 2.36 Dominica meets most of its energy demand through petroleum products, natural gas and electricity. The country has no known fossil fuel resources, but has considerable hydro potential and, possibly, some usable geothermal resources. There is no formal energy program, although a number of strategies intended to increase self reliance are underway. The principal government attention to date has been the administration of electrical power system. The Dominica Electricity Services Limited (DOMLEC) is responsible for the generation, transmission and distribution of electric power in Dominica. Its system consists of two hydro and three diesel plants. The hydro facilities generate about 80% of DOMLEC's total output. Besides electricity, there is evidence of some recent inter-fuel substitution of diesel for gasoline and natural gas. Efforts to promote fuel conservation and the use of alternative resources should be intensi- fied as expenditures on fuels and lubricants have increased from US$1.4 million in 1979 to US$3.8 million in 1983, an annual growth of about 34%. The volume of petroleum products imported increased by about 20% p.a. during the same period. 2.37 Utilizing technical assistance from the CDB, the Government is currently addressing energy needs through the Inter-ministry Energy Advisory Committee. A detailed hydro-electric feasibility study, conducted by an external consultant, to evaluate alternative sites for new installa- tions, notably in the eastern portion of the island, has just been completed and is under Government review. Continued use of technical assistance, as noted in previous economic reports, is recommended for the formulation of policy in the area of energy demand management (conserva- tion, efficiency and pricing policy) and reduction in petroleum dependence (through the development of renewable indigenous energy sources) for which relevant cost incentives need be implemented. Efforts in energy planning should appropriately be conducted in the context of the country's overall industrial development planning. - 22 - Transportation 2.38 The success of the Government's development strategy is heavily dependent on an efficient transport infrastructure. The external transport infrastructure in Dominica is generally satisfactory, given the volume of external trade. Most of Dominica's exports and imports are moved by sea; the deepwater port and two jetties have undergone considerable rehabilita- tion following damage during the 1979 hurricane. The two airstrips handle some external trade and most of the passenger traffic to and from the island. The principal problem with the main airstrip at Melville Hall is that passengers from the capital must drive almost two hours over a 53 km road which is in poor condition. The road improvement program currently underway shoulcd eliminate this problem in due course. 2.39 The internal transport infrastructure, by contrast, is very inadequate. Most of the roads, poorly maintained for many years, were damaged severely by the hurricanes of 1979-80. The rehabilitation of the road network and improvement of road maintenance practices to prevent deterioration in the future have been the major concern of the Government. En 1981, the Gcovernment begun implementing a four year road maintenance and rehabilitation plan designed to restore Dominica's roads to normal standards, construct badly needed new feeder roads and to strengthen the road maintenance capacity of the Ministry of Communications, Works and Tourism. The program is supported by a number of external donors, including IDA, CIDA, EDF, USAID and CDB. The heavy rainfalls in November 1984 have caused substantial damage to the roads rehabilitation program and the Government is seeking additional external assistance. Once completed, the internal road network should be adequate for the medium-term; what is required is to continue an adequate level maintenance program. The technical assistance component of the ongoing road rehabilitation program is addressing the problem by providing for the development of a systematic approach to the planning, programming and execution of routine and periodic maintenance. Education 2.40 Like the other Caribbean countries, Dominica has a relatively highly educated population, but this generalization is subject to one important qualification. The education system, while well developed, is deficient in meeting the current needs of the economy which are mainly in technical and commercial skills. Nevertheless, in accordance with the general strategy on education for Latin America and the Caribbean adopted in Quito, Ecuador in 1981, the Government of Dominica has implemented a series of educational policies and innovations that meet these goals: (a) the structure of education provides ten years of full-time education directed at attaining universal primary education; (b) there are programs under implementation directed at increasing adult literacy rate by 10% within three years, supplemented by skills training programs, leadership and counselling courses; and - 23 - (c) efforts are being made to improve the quality of education and delivery systems, which include training of teachers at both primary and secondary schools, reforms in teaching methodologies and curricula oriented at diversification and vocationalism of the junior secondary or the upper primary level placing greater emphasis on the preparation for the labour market. On the latter, with the technical assistance of UNESCO, the Government has identified a project in the technical-vocational field to further improve facilities and training for which it is seeking external financial assistance. 2.41 Despite the Government's commitment to upgrade and reform the educational system in order for it to produce the types of skills necessary for developing the economy, three issues related to finance, manpower and educational planning require special attention: (a) Finance - Education currently absorbs about 18% of total govern- ment recurrent expenditures and it is unrealistic to expect any further increase given the overall public sector resource constraints. Even at present levels, financial constraints exist for the provision of textbooks, supplies for primary/secondary schools, and the expansion of programs at the technical community college. Wages and salaries absorb a greater proportion of total expenditures on education. The Government has in early 1984 introduced a stringent policy aimed at re-allocating expenditures on education to permit an increase in supplies/materials and a reduction in expenditures on wages and salaries. (b) Personnel - Limited financial resources and inadequate remunera- tion have been linked to the absence of educational planners and statisti- cians in the Ministry of Education, as well as a severe shortage of general administrators and specialist in this sector. The effect of personnel shortage has been that educational planning has been inadequate. Besides fully utilizing the available personnel in the country, it is imperative that the Government continue to seek and utilize external technical assistance to support its program in education. (c) Planning - Until recently, educational planning was weak. On the basis of recent series of workshops and seminars aimed at systematic appraisal of the operations of the Ministry of Education, a number of new initiatives have been formulated. The Government has created a national curriculum planning committee and established a curriculum unit which will coordinate and integrate all curricula activities. The horizontal and vertical linkages in educational planning are emphasized as crucial to all aspects of educational reform. A small production unit has also been established, as part of the planning process, to supply locally made teaching resources and visual aids. As with personnel, the Government should continue to seek and utilize external funding and technical assistance to supplement its limited resources. Health 2.42 The health services infrastructure of Dominica, especially health centres and clinics, was seriously damaged by the hurricane of 1979. Although considerable reconstruction has taken place, the overall physical - 24 - facilities are still poor. As part of the rehabilitation program, the Government is emphasizing primary health care and decentralization of services. Although the Government's new strategy de-emphasizes hospital care, the existing four hospital facilities--one main secondary care referral hospital of 155 beds, a psychiatric hospital of 40 beds, and two district primary care hospitals of 36 and 16 beds respectively--are in need of improvements as a result of obsolescence and damage sustained during the hurricane of 1979. The Government has formulated a ten-year program to rehabilitate these hospitals but is constrained by financial resources despite the recent establishment of a Hospital Trust Fund. 2.43 The ongoing health care delivery reforms aim at the decentrali- zation of services supported by a well equipped hospital. Primary health care facilities at the community level will, therefore, be supported by successive level of referral facilities, engaging more highly trained staff capable of dealing with a professionally wider range of specialized health interventions that require more sophisticated technology than can be provided at the community level. Besides the financial constraints limiting the speedy implementation of the program, personnel constraints may pose considerable problems. Based on 1982 figures, of the established positions of 200 health personnel (ranging from medical doctors to assistant nurses), close to 20X were vacant. While the ongoing reforms would require a larger number of personnel, the composition will shift from medical doctors to moderately trained personnel. It is hoped that the establishment of the position of a primary health care nurse in 1981 will help alleviate the shortage. Dominica should, however, continue to seek and utilize extetrnal personnel through technical assistance programs with multilateral and bilateral agencies. - 25 - CHAPTER III - THE LEVEL AND ALLOCATION OF INVESTMENT A. Public Sector Investment Overview 3.01 The strategies outlined in the preceding chapter for developing agriculture, industry, tourism and supporting infrastructure should help broaden the productive base of the economy. If the programs are moderately successful, they should, over a period of years, help speed the growth in employment opportunities and improve the level of income. But successful implementation of these programs calls for a substantial increase in the level of investment and for translating general objectives into projects. The role of the public sector investment program is to provide the necessary supporting infrastructure for private sector direct investment. 3.02 The public sector investment program over the past three years has focused on restoring and upgrading the supporting infrastructure. The execution of the program has experienced mixed results partly as a result of administrative bottlenecks in aid disbursements. Of the planned expenditure of EC$48.7 million for 1983/84, actual expenditures were EC$40.0 million, a large proportion of the shortfall being accounted for by non-disbursement of external assistance for the roads project and the construction of factory facilities. Capital expenditures on the roads project, which constituted nearly one half of the PSIP in 1983/84, fell far short of programmed levels as a result of administrative bottlenecks in aid disbursements by the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA). The USAID portion of the road program which consisted of the rehabilitation of 30.5 miles of road between Roseau and Hatton Garden also experienced delays resulting from mechanical breakdown and engineering problems which required additional hillside excavation. Nevertheless, in support of the road rehabilitation program, the Government has given a great deal of attention over the past year to the reorganization of the Public Works Garage and Road Maintenance Unit. Organizational and management improvements and training of personnel have been effected and the stock of equipment has been increased. A new Garage Management Committee has been established to assist the management staff and to effect changes for greater efficiency in order to cope with the demands of the road rehabilitation program. 3.03 The other significant focus of the investment program for 1983/84 was the Government's efforts in agricultural expansion and diversifica- tion. Ongoing rehabilitation program in the traditional crops progressed satisfactorily. The CIDA-financed coconut rehabilitation and expansion project achieved about 75% of the 3 year expansion target of 2,500 acres in addition to completing the rehabilitation phase of 2,500 acres. The agriculture diversification program also made satisfactory progress. The tree-crop diversification project continued to be implemented ahead of schedule, although with the exception of mangoes, production forecasts are lower than anticipated. Despite the delays in 1982 in the completion of the first phase of the coffee development project because of floods, it was completed in 1983. The objective of the first phase of the project was for - 26 - the re-establishment of domestic supplies of coffee. Consideration is now being given to a second phase of the project which involves expansion earmarked for the regional market. Finally, the essential oils and spices project financed by the EDF, which began in 1981, has been successfully completed. Test marketing of distilled patchouli oil has been conducted by the Tropical Pr-oducts Institute in the UK and an initial evaluation has indicated that the Dominican oil is competitive. Full commercialization of the project will soon commence. The Medium-term Program 3.04 The Government's medium-term investment program (1984/85-1986/87) will aim at the completion of the ongoing investment program, notably the road-rehabilitaLtion project, and the expansion in supporting infrastruc- ture. Following the damaging effect of floods in November 1984, the anticipated completion of the four year (1981-85) road rehabilitation program is likely to be delayed. Additional assistance is also needed to complement this project. The agricultural sector (including fisheries) will continue to play an important role in the PSIP. 3.05 In an effort to maintain an investment program that is realistic, the size of new projects for 1984/85-1986/87 has been kept moderate. In terms of infrastructure, the major proposed projects are the Canefield airport expansion, the hydroelectric project and the expansion in indus- trial estates. The Government has obtained assistance from France for the financing of the Canefield expansion project which is planned to commence in 1984/85. The project involves the expansion and upgrading of the runway and related landing and take-off facilities and instruments. The Govern- ment's medium-term strategy in the energy sector is to expand its hydro- electric system and it is anticipated that a project will commence in 1986/87, for which a number of aid agencies (including the Bank) have expressed interest in financing. Commencing in 1985/86, the USAID is financing a diesel plant to increase existing generating capacity and to extend the distribution lines to the east coast. As part of CDB's ongoing program with the Government of Dominica for the construction of factory facilities, a new industrial estate project, with a capacity of about 70,000 sq.ft., is proposed to commence in 1985/86. 3.06 Ongoing agricultural projects will be strengthened with complementary projects in fish marketing, treecrop marketing and coffee development; alL planned to commence in 1985/86. The second phase of the essential oils project, which is mainly the commercialization of the project and expansion, is planned for implementation in 1985/86. As part of the Government's policy to foster equitable distribution of wealth, the Government's PSIJP proposes programs in social infrastructure, notably in housing and water. In housing, the program envisages an acceleration of the ongoing low-cost housing project financed by Venezuela in 1985/86. The Government is making efforts to overcome two major constraints to its program in housing, viz., the difficulty of obtaining financing on favourable conditions and the incapacity of the construction sector to - 27 - undertake major housing projects. With respect to water supply, a water catchment project is planned to commence in 1985/86 aimed at the restoration and expansion of domestic water supply. Financing 3.07 Dominica has relied to a large extent on highly concessional capital inflows to finance its PSIP and should continue to mobilize external resources on concessionary terms in the medium term. However, in order to continue to receive the support of external donors for its development efforts, the Government will have to continue to increase its efforts to provide on adequate local counterpart contribution. After a number of years of negative public sector savings, the finances of the public sector improved in 1983/84 with a surplus of about EC$9 million, considerable part of which constitutes social security resources. The prudent fiscal policy of the past three years has reduced the public sector dependence on the domestic banking system to finance the PSIP and efforts should continue in the same direction. Table 6: Financing Public Sector Investment Program (EC$ million) 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 Capital Expenditure 51.6 59.4 46.0 Net External Grant & Loans 49.6 52.1 37.5 (Committed) (46.5) (33.6) (8.9) Domestic Sources 2.0 7.3 8.5 Sources: Statistical Appendix Tables 5.10 & 5.11. 3.08 Of the proposed medium-term PSIP amounting to EC$157.0 million for 1984/85-1986/87, the Government expects to mobilize about EC$139.2 million or 89% of the total program outlay from external sources. Some EC$89.0 million, or 57% of the total program outlay, are already available for ongoing projects with firm commitments, leaving EC$50.2 million (or US$18.6 million) to be further mobilized. The Government expects to mobilize the additional resources on concessional terms. The domestic counterpart requirement amounts to EC$17.8 million and should be financed from public savings if projected levels are attained. It is worth noting that the estimated expenditures on the PSIP consist only of projects which are ongoing and those for which preliminary cost estimates are available. Excluded are projects for which no cost estimates are available with well identified components. B. Issues of Program Implementation 3.09 The proposed medium-term investment program, although modest in financial terms, is ambitious in terms of its manpower requirements and, in view of the past record, there is a question as to whether the program can - 28 - be fully implemented. It can succeed only if close attention is paid to project formulation and planning among the various agencies of government and if concerted efforts are made to build up the capabilities of these agencies. Sector and Project Planning 3.10 Public sector investment planning in Dominica has in the past suffered from limited domestic capacity to prepare and execute projects. This has resulted from the absence of coordination in the macro- and project-planning activities within the previous planning agencies and the lack of adequate planning units in the various operating agencies. The latter has implied a heavy dependence on external assistance for project identification and formulation. The Government has recognized this short- coming and in 1981 established the Economic Development Unit (EDU) of the office of the Prime Minister to pursue project development and financing. 3.11 The EDU has so far been primarily engaged in mobilizing project financing--i.e., identifying and following up external sources of finance for projects. It has, however, recently initiated sector planning exerci- ses, with the process well advanced for education, health and agriculture. The eventual goal is to have the operating agencies define the sector plans and to have them coordinated by EDU. Because this is the first effort of its type in Dominica, there is considerable room for improvement of the sector plans. The treatment of the individual subsectors tends to be over-ambitious and overall financial availability largely sketchy, but the agencies are aware of these deficiencies and intend to remedy them as the institutional capabilities improve. Despite these weaknesses, the basic approach is commendable and consideration should be given to strengthen the institutional arrangements so as to assist other agencies to formulate their programs on a timely basis. Project Selection 3.12 In the past, the proposed investment program has usually been too large to be undertaken with available funds and implementation capacity. Priorities have thus been determined by external agencies with no reference to the Government's objectives. Actual expenditures have usually not matched planned priorities and certain sectors have received the major proportion of the funds available for public investment on the basis of the agencies implementational capacities. The capacities of the various agencies need to be evaluated to determine whether they can implement the proposed programs and, if not, what actions should be taken to build them up. 3.13 Many considerations enter into the choice of the specific projects to be undertaken in any one year. In the past, political influence probably played an unduly large role. Efforts are now being made to improve the methods of selection. The EDU plans, with the assistance of the Inter-Agency Resident Mission (IARM), to develop a framework for project selection. In order to aid the process, it is recommended that the Government through the EDU should explore the adoption of a ranking - 29 - methodology which uses a number of specific indicators related to particular development objectives. Proposed projects may then be ranked according to their potential for achieving the various objectives in a specified development strategy. These indicators are weighted to give an overall performance rating, which can then be used to select projects. The goals against which projects are rated may be broader than economic efficiency as measured by traditional cost-benefit analysis. They may include such objectives as job creation and more equitable distribution of income. The weights for the various goals may be determined from opinion surveys that rank social objectives. Such a model could improve the process of project selection and bring the investment program in better alignment with the country's overall development goals. Project Implementation and Monitoring 3.14 Project implementation was frequently weak in the past, with relatively long delays in initiation and construction schedules which in some cases led to cost overruns. The reasons for this included a shortage of financial resources, delays in release of external funds, and weak project management and implementation capacity. The poor fiscal position of the central government has been largely overcome, but the administrative factors affecting delays in the external funds when needed have persisted. The Government in 1983 has obtained technical assistance from the OAS to establish a project monitoring system. In general, the system should remedy the administrative bottlenecks and strengthen the relationship between the approved program and the annual budget. 3.15 The Government is attempting to strengthen other areas of project implementation as well. It intends to assign project officers at the Ministry level with responsibility for project monitoring. What is needed at this juncture, through the OAS assisted project monitoring system, is a more structured and formalized system. It is not clear at present what the Government's intentions are regarding the long-term role of the monitoring officers at the agencies, but there is a strong case for improving communi- cation among them through the EDU. The administrative capacity of the line agencies responsible for implementing major parts of the public sector investment program is crucial. In areas such as agriculture, the antici- pated increases in investment complexity will undoubtedly strain this capacity. To keep the programs on schedule, the Government will have to keep close attention to the needs of the technical and managerial staff and to the planning and administrative procedures of the line agencies. C. Influencing the Pattern of Private Investment 3.16 Even though the level of public investment has risen above that of the private sector since 1982, the role of private investment in the overall development strategy will become increasingly important in the future. The development of new public infrastructure and the improvement of existing facilities will have an important indirect effect on the pattern of private investment. Nonetheless the Government will have to continue to promote private investment decision through direct methods. - 30 - Credit and interest rate policies will, of course, have considerable bearing as well as fiscal incentives and administrative controls over domestic and foreign private investment. Interest Rate and Credit Policy 3.17 Negative domestic savings since 1979 has been cited at a contri- butory factor in the weak growth in domestic private investment. The primary concern of the Government in this area is to encourage private savings in the form of financial savings with long term maturities. Three aspects of financial policy have important implications for the levels and composition of savings and investment during the next decade. First, both the levels and structure of interest rates, which influence the mobiliza- tion and allocation of domestic resources, will need to be more realistic. Second, the various instruments of credit policy, which have so far been utilized by the iGovernment, will have to be reexamined in the context of any changes in interest rate policies and the development of financial institutions. Third, financial institutions and instruments will have to be developed if the financial system is expected to grow in the near future. 3.18 Yield is not the only factor in stimulating and sustaining the flow of private savings into financial assets. Non-yield considerations are equally important; such as convenient terms with respect to with- drawals. Improviements could include making high-yielding assets accessible to savers in varLous income brackets and improved services. Private savings should also be mobilized on longer maturities. Longer terms would ensure a reasonable blend of maturities in the total obligations of finan- cial institutions and facilitate a sound intermediation process. Any measure to mobilize more domestic resources by increasing the financial assets of households should therefore also provide for lengthening the maturities of these assets and widening the array of financial instruments. 3.19 Increasing the level and improving the composition of domestic savings are of little value unless resources are allocated appropriately. Allocation for a suitable private investment will obviously determine the degree of the Government's success in accelerating the real growth of the economy and in promoting the sectoral development outlined earlier. The Government's involvement in the allocation process through the IDC and AID will be critical. Capital will have to be priced correctly in relation to the level and structure of interest rates that appropriately match returns with risk and reflects the scarcity value of capital in the economy. In such a structure, interest rates will have more to do with the allocational function than they have had earlier. 3.20 Reliance on collateral has most often been used to affect the rationing of funds among investments. It has made possible substantial flow of credit to large enterprises and has strengthened the bias for relatively large capital-intenEive undertakings. This particular credit policy, however, has merely confirmed the directional bias of industrial policy (see below). The fundamental issue involved in allocating institu- tional credit in the future should be to ensure that labour-intensive - 31 - manufacturing and agriculture enterprises obtain adequate financial resources through improving the credit-delivery system in general to allow small and medium scale industries greater access to institutional credit. Fiscal Incentives 3.21 The Government of Dominica provides a number of fiscal incentives for new industries, both local and foreign. They conform to those available throughout the OECS, under the CARICOM treaty. The principal elements are tax holidays granted on a value added and selective criteria and import duty exemptions on all equipment, machinery, spare parts and raw materials used in production. The way in which the incentive system influences the use of productive factors, employment creation and exports is as significant as the level of private investment generated. The incentives are understandably geared to making investment more attractive by enhancing their profitability, but this is done primarily by cheapening the inputs through imports. Except for labour, most inputs--especially capital equipment--are imported. The mere existence of input-oriented incentives thus produces a bias toward the use of capital and imported components. The relative net gain accruing to the investor enjoying tax concessions is directly proportional to the size and capital intensity of the project. 3.22 To counterbalance this capital bias somewhat, the Government, as a training incentive, has permitted new industries to pay 75% of the minimum wage during the initial startup period (not longer than six months). In order to improve its labour-favoring incentives, the Government may investigate the system in place in the Philippines which involves entitlement to deduct from taxable income some training expenses. New projects are approved on the basis of employment per specified amount of imported equipment and must earn through exports within a specified number of years the foreign exchange used in excess of given dollars per job created. The objective is to make capital intensive projects less advantageous while at the same time give more weight to employment and export criteria in project selection. 3.23 Any proposals for modification in the system will have to be based on a comprehensive study (as well as a requirement that the measures will be adopted as a regional approach), but a few comments can be offered on the principles of such a review. Investment incentives should be made less costly (in terms of revenue foregone), more effective and administra- tively more manageable. The system also needs to focus on very specific goals instead of the present broad scope. Employment creation and export expansion deserve the highest priority. This could be done by changing either the selection of industries eligible for incentives or the incentives themselves. A combination of both kinds of change is perhaps preferable. Under the first course, incentives would ultimately be confined to the industries complying with certain labour-intensity and export criteria. The modified incentive system, on the other hand, should provide a much more pronounced differential between exports incentives and other incentives in favour of import substitution. Periodic review of the incentive system is therefore.a necessity; including post-incentive appraisal and monitoring. - 32 - 3.24 The usual incentives for industrial development--customs exemptions, tax holidays, subsidized credit--principally aid the larger (or at least modern) industries which are usually foreign owned. Promotional efforts for small local entrepreneurs need to be pinpointed more specifi- cally to overcoming their handicaps in project identification, accounting techniques and marketing outlets, and to enhancing their advantages. Commercial banks;, of which three branches of international banks and a domestic National Commercial Bank currently operate in Dominica, could be suitable intermediaries. Properly organized, they can better assess the personal qualities of the borrower and local business conditions and since many small enterprises primarily need working capital, can be of consider- able assistance in the short term. In Dominica, like elsewhere, they are reputedly wary cif financing small enterprises in view of the costs and risks involved. Beyond making a vigorous effort through moral suasion to encourage the commercial banks to lend to small local businessmen, the Government could promote, on a temporary basis, a policy made up of a combination of ready access by the commercial banks, on favourable terms, to government or central bank resources plus some guarantee covering 50% or more of the risk of defaults. This should generally give adequate inducement for the foreign commercial banks to seek small enterprise business. Part of the repayment risk should remain with the lending banks, to encourage effective supervision and loan collection efforts. Substitutes for collateral should also be actively sought. ANNEX I Page I of 4 DOMINICA GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE LISTS - 34 - ANNEX I Page 2 of 4 OOMINICA - NUJOR ONGOING PROJECTS MAD SOURCES OF FINANCING (US$ '000) Counterpart Total External Financing Interest Amortization Grace Period Financing Cost Amount Source S Period (years) (Years) Amount S% Agriculture Foroetry 4 Flaherloe Banana Rehab. 4 Dovolopment Progrm 542 542 UK Great Banana lmprovemaent Schom 1,741 1,741 USAID Grent Tree Crop Dlveraificatlon 1,747 1,471 UK Grent - - 276 16 Food Production 2,043 1,725 IFAD 50 10 315 16 Feeder Roads 3,287 3,139 C0B,TT 4, 2 15, 25 5, 5 148 -5 Coffee Rehab. 4 Development 469 469 UK greant - - - - Essentlal Oils Development 281 281 EOF Grant - - - - Coconut Rehab. 4 Expenalon 4,106 3,407 CIDA Grent - - 699 17 Freshwater Prawn Forming 204 III EOF Grant - - 93 46 Industry Fruit Production Processing 2,107 2,033 EDF,CFC,CFIC Grant/Loan n.e n.e 74 3.5 Industrial Estates & Nursery 2,953 1,830 Cwe 4 15 S 1,1230 38 Industrial Estates III 1,500 1,500 CDB 4 IS 5 - - Transport Iton Road Rehabilitation 28,000 28,000 CIDA,EOF, Grant/Loan 15-25 USAID,IDA,OPEC Oeepwater Harbor (Transport Shed) 353 353 CIOA,UNESCO Grant - - - Education Junior Secondary Program 260 236 UNESCO Grnt - - 24 9 Health Health Centers & Disaster Supplies 1,293 1,233 US,OXAM Grant - - 60 5 Housing Low-cost Houalng 3,557 2,822 TT 2 30 5 735 21 Mortgage Finance 1,143 1,143 CDOB 4 15 5 - - Other Self-help 270 252 UK 0 15 5 18 7 Micro Projects 370 370 EOF grant - - - - Basic Needs Trust 3,102 2,037 USAIO Grant - - 1,065 34 s/ Includes 1,090 counterpart funds from OPEC balance of paymenta support. - 35 - ANNEX I Page 3 of 4 DOMINICA - MAJOR NEW PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING (USS '000) Total External Financing Counterpart Financing Cost Amount Source Amount I New Project. Directly Productive Projects Integrated Rural Development 1 5996 4466 EDF,IFAD 1530 26 Coffee Development - Phase 11 734 445 BDD 289 39 Flsheries Dev. (Cold Storage & Mktg.) 712 604 CDB 108 Is Essential Oils Development 11 1063 407 EDF 656 62 Llvestock Training & Domostratlon Centre 696 632 FAO 64 9 Economic Infrastructure Canefleld Airstrip Extenslon 1500 1500 France - - Feeder Roads Phase III 3000 2700 CDB 300 10 Water Catchment Dev. & Conservation III 4299 3054 CODB 1245 29 Hydro Project 12963 11667 CDB,IBRD,CIDA 1296 10 Fond Cole Electricity Expansion 2200 2015 USAID 185 a Other Projects Construction of Public Bulidings 1540 1232 UK 308 20 Grandbay Fire & Ambulance Station 346 346 Unknown - - Princess Margaret Hospital (Redev.) 346 346 UK,FAC,Belgium - - DOMINICA - MAJOR ONGOING TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE (US$ 000) Total External Financing Duration Comment Cost Amount Source Police Training Adviser 225 225 BDD 3 years Oct. 1981 /a Consultant/Training Officer 300 300 UK Govt. 4 years May 1980 /a Architect 225 225 BDO 2 years Approved Electrical Engineer (MCW) 225 225 CFTC 3 years Ongoing Manager/Advisor (CWA) 150 150 CFTC 2 years Ongoing Engineer (CWA) 150 150 CFTC 2 years Ongoing Infrastructural Engineer (MCW) 150 150 CFTC 2 years Ongoing Project Officer (Min. of Agric.) 180 180 ODA 2 years Ongoing Management Adviser (HB) 75 75 CFTC I year Approved Nursing Consultant (Mn. of Health) 50 50 CFTC 6-8 months Approved Tertiary Education (Min. of Educ.) 38 38 CFTC 6 months Approved Workshop Superintendent (Public Works Departmont) ISO 150 BOD 2 years Approved Integrated Rural Development (Study) 1000 1000 OAS 2 years Ongoing Youth Skills (Training) 450 450 OAS 2 years Ongoing Health Services T.A. 150 150 French Govt. I year Ongoing Fisherles Adviser n.a. n.s. CFTC 2 years Ongoing Structural Engineer (MCW) .. .. CFTC a/ Period of commencement. - 36 - ANNEX I Pa e 4 of 4 DOMINICA - MAJOR NEW TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUESTS g (US$ '000) Total External Financing Duration Comment Cost Amount Source ProJect Officer (Mln. of EducatIon) 80 80 Unknown 1 year Manpower Support 296 296 UNIDO,CFTC 1 year Tourism Economist & Physical Planner Unknown 1 year Tourism Marketing Specialist Unknown 6 months Project Officer (MCW) 225 225 CFTC 3 years Under Consi- deration Civil Engineer (HOU) 150 150 Unkown 2 years Foreeter (Forestry Div.) 150 150 Unknown 2 years Surveyor 70 53 Unknown I year Statistics Adviser n.e. n.a. IARM I year Customs Valuetion Adviser n.a. n.a. IARM I year Income Tax Adviser n.e. n.e. IARM I year Filscal Adviser n.a. n.a. IARM I year Macro Economlst (Planner) n.ea. n.a. IARM 1 year Project Monitoring Economist n.a. n.a. IARM I year Property Valuation Adviser n.a. n.a. IARM 2 years Soclal Development Advisor .. .. BDO I year - 37 - ANNEX II Page 1 of 8 THE 1981 POPULATION CENSUS OF DOMINICA Background 1. The population census was held on April 7, 1981. It was originally scheduled for May 1980, simultaneously with the other countries participating in the Regional Census Program, but was delayed because of the effects of the hurricanes of 1979-80. The results indicate that the resident population for 1981 was 74,785, comprising 37,281 males and 37,504 females. This compares with the population estimate of 70,214 (33,376 males and 36,838 females) for 1970 and indicates compound growth rate of 0.57 p.a. between 1970 and 1981. The population growth rate is considerably lower than those observed for the periods 1946-60, which was 1.64% p.a. and for 1960-70, 1.59% p.a. It is believed that the impact of the hurricanes of 1979-80 was reflected in substantial emigration which explains the low growth rate. 2. In the absence of reliable data on migration, a review of registered births and deaths for the 1970 to 1981 period implies a net emigration of 12,162 persons. The data also indicate a sex bias in favour of females, compared to available information for the previous decades which shows male domination in emigration. Table Al: Components of Population Change 1970 - 81 Males Females Total Registered births 11337 10724 22061 Registered deaths 2663 2665 5328 Natural Increase 8674 8059 16733 Intercensal change 3905 666 4571 Implied net migration -4769 -7393 -12162 Source: Statistical Bureau. Demographic Characteristics 3. Age and Sex characteristics. An analysis of the sex composition of the population results reveals that a disproportionate proportion of the increase between 1970 and 1981 is accounted for by males. This has meant that the sex ratio, expressed as the number of males per 100 females, has risen rapidly from 91 in 1970 to 99 in 1981. Since the intercensal change between 1970-81 has been largely influenced by emigration, usually of adult members of 15-44 years, it has implied a remarkable decline in the age ratio for the 0-14 years group as a result of the decline in the birth rate over the period. - 38 - ANNEX II Page 2 of 8 Table A2: Population by Age Group (In percentage) Age Group/years 1960 1970 1981 0 - 14 44.7 49.1 39.8 15 - 44 36.0 32.4 40.5 45 - 64 13.7 12.6 12.1 65+ 5.5 5.9 7.2 Residual 0.0 0.0 0.4 Source: Statistical Bureau. 4. On the basis of comparative data for 1960 and 1970, the 1981 population results indicate a decline in the proportion of the population that is dependent (i.e. those under 15 years or over 65 years of age). The increase in the over 65 years group reflects the phenomenon of "return migration", and while very small, has implications for the provision of social services, especially health. Similarly, the rise in the economically active group (15-64 years), especially in the male component, has employment implications. 5. Economic Activity. Of the population group aged 15-64 years, the census considered the "economically active" population as "those who worked, looked for work, or had a job but did not work during the week of the census." A classification was made for activity during the previous twelve months and for the previous week before the census. We concentrate on the former. Economic activity analysis for 1981 indicates a labour force (defined as worked, seeking first job, others seeking work, wanted work and available) of 25,523 persons, comprising 16602 males and 8921 females. Of the labour force, the unemployed (defined as those seeking their first job, others seeking work and those wanted and available for work), was estimated as 4746, implying a rate of 18.6%. Comparative analysis for 1970 indicates an unemployment rate of 8.1%. Table A3: Economic Activity During the Year Before Census 1970 1981 Main Activity Male Female Total Male Female Total Total 13210 7961 21171 16602 8921 25523 Worked 12293 7159 19452 13961 6816 20777 Seeking First Job 614 460 1074 1299 1027 2326 Other Seeking Job 193 192 385 514 359 873 Wanted Work & Available 110 150 260 828 719 1547 Source: Statistical Bureau. - 39 - ANNEX II Page 3 of 8 6. Sex differences in the unemployment rate for 1981 are: males 15.9% and female 23.6%; compared to 6.9% and 10.1% respectively for 1970. The results indicate that the rapid increase in the economically active age group during 1970-81 was unmatched by similar employment opportunities. For both males and females the unemployment rates more than doubled. It should be noted that comparison of the two census results are not wholly legitimate as the results may be affected by changing perceptions of what constitutes economic activity (especially among females) and weaknesses in the enumeration procedures. 7. The unemployment rates also vary with age, being much higher among the under-20 than any other group. In 1981, over half of the 15-19 years group in the labour force were unemployed; the comparable figure for 1970 is 30.6%. The unemployment rates decline systematically with age categories and fall below the national average for each age category above 20 years. The sex differentials in which the rates are higher for females are repeated for all age groups, except for the 55-64 years category for 1981 in which male unemployment rate is marginally higher. The policy implication is that employment programs aimed at reducing the national rate of unemployment should be focused at this group. A review of the educational background of the unemployed reveals that unemployment is highest for those with primary and secondary education, implying that the educational system is not adequately labour market oriented. 8. Occupational Classification. The 1981 Census results indicate that agriculture and related jobs constituted about 44% and 20% of employment of males and females, respectively. The next important category and the fastest growing is the production and related occupations associated with manufacturing industries. The female population continue to dominate in the professional and technical, clerical, sales and services sectors and this is accounted for by their relatively higher educational level. Table A4: Occupational Classification (In Percentage) 1970 1981 Occupational Group Males Females Males Females Professional & Technical 4.2 11.2 5.9 17.0 Administrative & Managerial 1.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 Clerical 3.4 8.9 4.0 15.5 Transport & Communication 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 Sales 3.1 12.6 2.6 12.7 Services 4.3 23.0 5.6 19.4 Agriculture & Related 48.7 29.7 44.0 20.4 Production & Related 26.2 9.1 36.9 14.3 Labourers & others n.e.c. 7.8 4.7 0.0 0.0 Source: Statistical Bureau. - 40 - ANNEX II Page 4 of 8 Conclusions 9. Among other things, the Population Census results also provide information on educational background, household characteristics and marriage and fertility rates. The Government is in the process of publishing the full results of the Census. Nevertheless, on the basis of the brief discussion in this annex the following policy conclusions may be deduced: (a) The population increase seems to have slowed down considerably during 1970-81, as a result of the relatively very high emigration, mainly of females. The emigration may have been induced by the hurricanes of 1979-80 and thus makes the derived population growth rate not useful for policy purposes. The higher female emigration may be explained by the traditionally high female unemployment rate and educational level. (b) The results indicate a significant rise in the economically active group (15-64 years) with negative implications for the unemployment rate which also rose significantly from 8.1% in 1970 to 18.6% in 1981. The unemployment rate was considerably above the national average for the under 20 years age group and suggests that future employment programs should be directed at this group which generally has a high formal education level. The result may also reflect the discrepancy between the content of the educational system and the labour market requirements. (c) Analysis of the occupational classification indicates that agriculture and related occupations remain the dominant employment outlet, followed by the production and related occupations which are associated with manufactur:Lng. The latter is the fastest growing which suggests that formal educational programs should tend to be oriented toward the vocational/technical disciplines. ANNEX TABLES 1. Population Size and Growth, 1871-1981 2. Population by Sex and Age Groups, 1960, 1970 & 1981 3. Economic Activity During the Week before the Census, 1970 & 1981 4. Economic Activity During the year before the Census, 1970 & 1981 5. Unemployment Rates by Age and Sex, 1970, 1981 6. Unemployment Rates by Educational Level: 1981 7. Occupational Status of Economically Active Population 8. Adult Literacy Rates, 1970 & 1981 - 41 - ANNEX II Page 5 of 8 Table Is Population Size and Growth, IS71 - 1981 Populatlon Growth Male/ Average Exponti. Pepulatlen Female Annuol Rate Census Date male Female Total Ratio Increase S p.O. 1871 12737 14441 27178 0.68 1861 12067 15344 26211 0.84 103 0.37 1891 12059 14762 26641 0.62 -137 -0.50 01-Apr 1901 12870 16024 28694 0.60 205 0.74 03-Apr 1911 15231 18632 33863 0.82 497 1.59 24-Apr 1921 16760 20299 37059 0.83 316 0.90 09-Apr 1946 22277 25347 47624 0.88 423 1.00 07-Apr 1960 26167 31749 59916 0.69 878 1.64 07-Apr 1970 33376 36636 70214 0.91 1030 1.59 07-Apr 1981 37281 37504 74765 0.99 416 0.57 Sources, 1671 - 1946: West Indian Census, 1946. part N, Table 1. 1960t Census Vol. II, Summary Tables, fl. 1970: Census Vol. 3 Table A, (resident populotIon). 1981: Unpublished 1981 Population Census of Doilnlos. Table 2: Population by Sex and Age Group, 1960, 1970 and 1981 Age 1960 1970 1981 9roup Male Female Total Male Female Total Mole Female Total 0 - 4 5713 5467 11200 6223 6278 12501 4202 3994 8196 5 - 9 4287 4322 8609 5951 5886 11637 5277 4650 10127 10 - 14 3555 3438 6993 5030 4750 9780 5595 5488 11083 15 - 19 2566 2764 5330 3235 3563 6798 4779 4611 9390 20 - 24 1988 2491 4479 2269 2599 4868 3722 3266 7008 25 - 29 1565 1954 3519 1392 1718 3110 2521 2190 4711 30 - 34 1278 1564 2662 1123 1492 2615 1764 1755 3519 35 - 39 1222 ISIS 2737 1139 1527 2666 1404 1416 2620 40 - 44 1185 1487 2672 1132 1354 2486 1133 1328 2461 45 - 49 1183 1323 2506 1069 1345 2414 1058 1292 2350 S0 - 54 1026 1335 2363 1097 1374 2471 1051 1311 2362 55 - 59 737 1059 1796 911 1168 2079 950 1097 2047 60 - 64 646 904 1550 848 975 1823 959 1190 2149 65 - 69 445 667 1112 601 925 1526 850 962 1812 70 - 74 351 571 922 406 642 1048 611 872 1483 75 - 79 207 370 577 257 390 647 383 584 967 80 - 84 125 269 394 171 299 470 191 357 548 aS+ 86 209 295 114 296 410 149 332 461 n.e. 155 126 281 Total 28167 31749 59916 32966 36581 69549 36754 37041 73795 Sources: 1960 Census, Vol. II, Summary Tables. 1970 Census, Vol. 3, Age Tabulations. 1981 Census, Tablo 1.1 (unpublished). - 42 - ANNEX 1 I Page 6 of 8 Table 3S Economic Activity During the Week Before the Census, 1970 and 1981 Males Females Number Percent Number Pereont 1970 1981 1970 1981 1970 1981 1970 1981 Economically active 12884 16698 85.8 81.6 7551 8635 40.2 41.1 Worked 11407 13506 76.0 66.0 6398 6512 34.0 31.0 Wlth Job not working 513 502 3.4 2.5 372 186 2.0 0.9 Looked for work 964 2690 6.4 13.2 781 1937 4.2 9.2 Economicaily Inactive 1604 2385 10.7 11.7 10763 11659 57.3 55.5 Homo dutIes 102 361 0.7 1.8 8636 9024 45.9 42.9 Student 54 224 0.4 1.1 77 228 0.4 1.1 Retired 423 749 2.8 3.7 607 961 3.2 4.6 Disabled 1025 1051 6.8 5.1 1443 1446 7.7 6.9 Other and not stated 524 1372 3.5 6.7 481 720 2.6 3.4 Tota I 15012 20455 100.0 100.0 18795 21014 100.0 100.0 Sourcest 1970 Census, Vol. 4, Part 6, Table 1. 1982 Census, Table 2.1 (unpublished). Table 4: Economic Activity During the Yoer Before the Consus, 1970 and 1981 Males Females Main Activity Number Percent Number Percent 1970 1981 1970 1981 1970 1981 1970 1981 Economically active 13210 16602 88.0 81.2 7961 8921 42.4 42.5 Worked 12293 13961 81.9 68.3 7159 6816 38.1 32.4 Seeking first Job 614 1299 4.1 6.4 460 1027 2.4 4.9 Others Seeking Work 198 514 1.3 2.5 192 359 1.0 1.7 Wanted work & availnabl 110 828 0.7 4.0 150 719 0.8 3.4 Economically Inactlveo 1496 2258 10.0 11.0 10607 11255 56.4 53.6 Homo duties 99 280 0.7 1.4 8564 8551 45.6 40.7 Student 98 283 0.7 1.4 125 293 0.7 1.4 Retired 1299 751 8.7 3.7 1918 2005 10.2 4.8 Disabled 944 0.0 4.6 1406 0.0 6.7 Other and not stated 306 1595 2.0 7.8 227 838 1.2 4.0 Total 15012 20455 100.0 100.0 18795 21014 100.0 100.0 Soureso 12970 Consua. Vol. 4, Part 6, TabIe 2. 1981 Census, Timble 2.2 (unpublishod). - 43 - ANNEX II Page 7 of O Table 5: Unemployment Rates by Age and Sex, 1970, 1981 Age 1970 1981 Group Male Female Totol aMlo Foesle Total 14 54.4 44.8 51.5 15 - 19 29.4 32.2 30.6 49.8 66.7 55.7 20 - 24 5.9 11.6 8.2 19.9 30.4 23.8 25 - 34 2.2 4.2 2.9 8.8 15.0 10.9 35 - 44 1.4 2.1 1.7 4.6 7.2 5.6 45 - 54 1.2 0.7 1.0 2.7 7.2 4.3 55 - 64 0.6 1.5 0.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 65+ 0.3 1.6 0.7 2.2 2.7 2.3 Not States 8.5 11.4 9.5 All Ages 6.9 10.1 8.1 15.9 23.6 18.6 Total Number Unemployed 917 802 1719 2641 2105 4746 Sources: 1970 Census, Volume 4. Part 9, Table 2. 1961 Census, Table 2.2 (unpublished). Table 6s Unemployment Rates by Educational Levels 1981 Type of School Moles Females None 8.4 10.3 Nursery or Infant 12.5 26.70/ Pr lmary 17.3 26.1 Secondary/Comprehenalve 12.3 18.8 Multi-high 9.2 17.5 Other secondary 8.3 17.8 University 2.2 3.7 Other 6.6 14.5 Not stated 18.2 26.1 All schools 15.9 23.6 a/ Based on fewer than 20 casoe. Source: 1981 Censue, Table 2.2.2 (unpublished). - 44 - ANNEX II Page 8 of 8 Table 7s Occupational Status of Economically Active Population Males femoles Occupational Status 1970 1981 1970 1981 Worked for others 66.5 48.9 73.8 55.9 In government 16.6 18.3 17.1 20.0 In private enterprise 48.3 24.2 54.0 25.4 In a private household 4.5 8.6 as an unpaid worker 1.6 1.9 2.7 1.9 Hsa own bulness or farm 26.8 34.6 16.4 19.2 with paid help 5.7 7.6 3.2 3.9 without paId hlIp 21.1 27.0 13.2 15.3 Did no work 6.7 14.8 9.8 22.3 Not stated .0 1.7 .0 2.6 Total number (-100?) 13210 16602 7961 8921 Sourcess 1970 Ceinsus, Vol. 4, Part 9, Toble 2. 1981 Coresus, Table 2.3 (unpublished). Table 8: Adult Literacy Rates, 1970 & 1981 Male Fsmalo Both Sexes Type of School 1970 1981 1970 1981 1970 1981 None 6.1 4.7 5.8 5.0 5.8 4.9 Nursery or Infant 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 Primary 82.1 79.3 84.8 77.7 83.6 78.5 Secondary/Comprehensive a/ 10.1 11.3 8.5 13.2 9.2 12.2 Multi-high 0.6 0.5 0.5 Other Secondary 0.7 0.9 0.8 Unverasity 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.3 Othor 0.5 0.9 0.4 1.2 0.5 l.l Not Stated 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 Total Number (-1001) 15763 20455 19667 21014 35430 41469 o/ Comprehensive, multi-high and other secondary schools were grouped In one category In 1970. Sources 1970 Census, Vol. 6, Table 3. 1981 Census, Table 5.2 (unpublished). - 45 - DOMINICA STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table of Contents I. Population and Labour Force 1.1 Selected Vital Statistics 1.2 Employment by Sector (Excluding Self-Employed) II. National Accounts 2.1 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Current Factor Cost 2.2 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Constant Factor Cost 2.3 Expenditure on GDP at Current Prices 2.4 Expenditure on GDP at Constant Prices 2.5 Implicit GDP Deflators III. Balance of Payments 3.1 Balance of Payments 3.2 Merchandise Imports (CIF) 3.3 Merchandise Exports (FOB) 3.4 Export, Import and Terms of Trade Indices 3.5 Direction of Trade IV. External Debt 4.1 Summary of External Public Debt Operations V. Public Sector Finances 5.1 Central Government Expenditures 5.2 Functional Classification of Central Government Current Expenditures 5.3 Structure of Central Government Domestic Debt 5.4 Central Government Revenue 5.5 Central Government Operations 5.6 Summary Operations of General Government 5.7 Summary Operations of Nonfinancial Public Enterprises 5.8 Consolidated Accounts of the Public Sector 5.9 Financing of the Public Sector Investment 5.10 Ongoing Public Sector investment Program 5.11 Proposed New Projects 1984/85 - 1986/87 5.12 Summary of Public Sector Investment Program by Sectors 5.13 Summary of Public Sector Investment Program by Sources of Financing - 46 - DOMINICA STATISTICAL APPENDIX Table of Contents (Cont'd) VI. Money and Banking 6.1 Consolidated Financial System 6.2 Commercial Bank Operations 6.3 Operations of Non-Bank Financial Institutions 6.4 Distribution of Commercial Bank Loan 6.5 Interest Rates Structure 6.6 Eastern Caribbean Central Bank VII. Agriculture, Tourism and other Sectors 7.1 Production of Selected Agricultural Products 7.2 Selected Industrial Production 7.3 Tourist. Statistics 7.4 Electricity Generation 7.5 Imports of Petroleum Products VII. Prices 8.1 Consumer Price Index 8.2 Fuel Prices 8.3 Electricity Rates 8.4 Banana Export Prices IX. Macroeconomic Projections 9.1 Actual and Projected Sources and Uses of Resources 9.2 Actual and Projected Balance of Payments 9.3 Actual and Projected Exports GNFS 9.4 Actual and Projected Imports GNFS 9.5 Actual and Projected Public Sector Finances - 47 - Table 1.1: DOMINICA - SELECTED VITAL STATISTICS 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1962 1983 Total Population (mid-year) a/ 70000 70250 70500 70900 71250 71700 72150 72700 73350 74089 75000 76500 Crude Birth Rate (per 1000) 37.0 32.7 29.2 25.1 24.7 24.0 24.0 21.0 24.8 22.5 23.3 24.3 Crude Death Rate (per 1000) 7.5 7.3 5.8 4.2 5.3 4.6 5.4 5.1 Rate of Natural Increase 17.2 16.7 18.2 16.8 19.5 17.9 17.9 19.2 Total Births b/ 2591 2298 2062 1783 1758 1719 1735 1521 1819 1670 1753 1864 Total Deaths 535 521 416 304 387 338 412 349 Natural Population Increase . 1223 1198 1319 1217 1432 1332 1341 1515 Net Migration c/ -B. 73 -748 -869 -667 -782 -593 -430 -15 Net Population Increase 250 250 400 350 450 450 550 650 739 911 1500 Infant Deaths .. 52 55 42 22 29 17 19 26 Infant Mortality Rate 38.7 28.1 26.9 24.0 27.0 21.9 12.3 12.6 10.2 17.1 13.9 …----------- a/ Census data for April 7,1970 and April 7, 1981 are 70214 and 74785 respectively. b/ 6iven the disruption in record keeping caused by the devastation of the 1979 hurricane, it is believed that the figures for 1979 are under-represented and those for 1980 are overestisated because of late registration of 1979 births. t/ Implicit net migration; there are no official data on migration. Source: Ministry of Health. October 1964 - 48 - Table 1.21 DONININCA - EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (EXCLUDING SELF EMPLOYED) al Est. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983 1964 Total Employeent 13917 17711 15393 15007 21132 23021 24856 25959 Agriculture, forestry and fishing b/ 1580 4517 3995 3104 3374 3376 3255 . Manufacturing 539 1289 973 1049 1064 1182 1359 Construction 222 938 528 507 2605 2662 3061 Electricity 120 147 166 169 251 240 264 Trade and hotels 3268 2230 2103 1669 2221 2580 2852 Transport & communication 382 2580 1763 2040 2603 1933 2127 Services (incl. government) 7570 5751 5605 6154 8653 10594 11440 Banking and insurance 236 259 260 315 361 454 498 a/ Employment data derived from the records of the Social Security Department. Excludes all persons not covered by the Social Security system, most notably the self-esployed. b/ Includes employment by the Dominica Banana Growers Association. Source: Social Security Department October 1984 - 49 - Table 2.1: DOMINICA - SECTORAL ORIBIN OF 6DP AT CURRENT FACTOR COST (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Prel. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1991 1982 1983 1984 Gross Domestic Product 84.8 105.9 105.8 143.7 153.0 162.6 175.9 190.3 Agriculture 27.0 36.1 30.0 36.7 38.8 39.0 40.7 43.1 Livestock and fishing 3.5 3.9 3.1 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.7 9.0 Forestry 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.2 Mining and quarrying 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.5 Manufacturing 4.2 6.0 5.0 6.9 10.2 13.4 14.1 13.9 Utilities 1.9 2.5 1.9 3.5 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 Construction 5.4 5.3 7.7 18.5 14.6 13.7 12.6 14.7 Transport & comeunications 5.4 6.3 8.0 10.5 11.4 13.5 19.7 22.1 Wholesale and retail 9.9 12.9 8.1 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.7 Hotels and restaurants 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 Banking, finance L housing 6.1 8.4 5.9 9.4 10.1 11.1 11.5 11.6 Government services 16.9 19.3 31.3 33.7 35.4 37.1 40.6 45.5 Other services 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 Sources: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance; OECS Secretariat and Mission estimates. April, 1985 - 50 - Table 2.2: DOMINICA - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GDP AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST (In millions of 1977 East Caribbean dollars) Prel. 1977 1979 1979 1980 1991 1982 1983 1984 Bross Domestic Product 94.9 95.4 79.2 92.2 97.9 100.2 102.6 107.2 Agriculture 27.0 30.6 20.0 17.0 20.8 21.6 21.6 23.1 Livestock and fishing 3.5 3.5 2.5 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.7 6.0 Forestry 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 Mining and quarrying 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 Manufacturing 4.2 5.9 4.9 6.2 7.3 8.6 8.7 B.7 Utilities 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 Construction 5.4 5.4 6.6 11.9 10.0 9.9 8.3 9.5 Transport S coomunications 5.4 5.9 5.5 5.9 5.5 6.2 8.3 9.7 Wholesale and retail 9.9 11.5 7.9 11.3 12.0 11.7 11.4 11.6 Hotels and restaurants 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 Banking, financt I housing 6.1 6.5 5.4 7.7 7.9 7.9 8.0 0.1 Government survices 16.9 19.3 20.3 21.1 21.9 22.6 22.9 23.4 Other services 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 Sourcts: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance; OECS Secretariat and Mission estimates. April, 1995 - 51 - Table 2.3: DONINICA - EXPENDITURE ON GDP AT CURRENT PRICES (In billions of East Caribbean dollars) Prel. 1977 1979 1979 1980 1981 19B2 1903 1994 Total Consumption a/ 96.1 121.4 137.7 181.1 199.2 195.5 196.0 220.7 Private 62.7 87.0 96.6 135.3 150.6 142.1 147.1 166.7 Public 33.4 34.4 41.1 45.9 47.6 53.4 49.9 54.0 Gross Docestic Investment b/ 21.5 27.5 41.0 79.7 57.0 52.9 59B. 74.5 Private 7.3 13.3 16.6 54.8 34.9 19.2 23.2 26.4 Public 14.2 14.2 14.4 17.9 22.2 33.7 33.1 48.1 Inventory Change 0.0 0.0 10.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 Goods I NFS Balance -19.4 -27.0 -56.7 -104.5 -76.4 -54.3 -44.3 -66.7 Exports of goods & NFS c/ 40.5 52.1 52.1 42.4 62.9 80.2 9.98 89.1 Isports of Goods & NFS c/ 59.9 79.1 109.9 146.9 139.3 134.5 133.1 155.9 Gross Domestic Product at Current Narket Prices b/ 99.2 121.9 122.0 156.3 1789. 194.1 210.5 229.5 Minus; Indirect Taxes Net of Subsidies 13.4 16.0 16.2 12.6 25.9 31.5 34.7 38.2 Gross Domestic Product at Current Factor Cost b/ 94.9 105.9 105.9 143.7 153.0 162.6 175.9 190.3 Net Factor Incoee Payment c/ 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -1.9 -5.9 Gross National Product at Current Factor Cost 94.9 105.4 105.5 143.7 153.3 162.3 173.9 194.4 Gross Domestic Savings 2.1 0.5 -15.7 -24.9 -19.4 -1.4 14.5 7.8 Net Private Transfers from Abroad c/ 4.6 9.7 19.4 17.0 15.7 28.6 23.0 25.4 gross National Savings 6.7 9.7 2.4 -7.9 -3.4 26.9 35.6 27.3 a/ Residual b/ Official data - Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance. c/ From table 3.1. Sourcest Mission estimates. April, 1995 - 52 - Table 2.4: DOMINICA - EXPENDITURE ON GDP AT CONSTANT PRICES (In sillions of 1977 East Caribbean dollars) Prel. 1977 1978 1979 1980 19B1 1982 1983 1904 Consumption a/ 96.1 109.7 104.2 113.1 115.1 114.2 111.2 . Private 62.7 78.7 73.2 84.5 87.4 93.0 7.8 Public 33.4 31.0 31.0 28.6 27.7 31.2 32.4 Gross Domestic Investment b/ 21.5 26.3 35.5 48.7 38.5 33.6 36.7 Private 7.3 12.7 14.4 33.5 23.5 12.2 16.0 Public 14.2 13.6 13.4 11.0 15.0 21.4 19.5 Inventory change 0.0 0.0 7.7 4.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 Resource Balance -19.4 -25.7 -48.0 -62.1 -42.2 -31.8 -28.6 Exports of Goods & NFS c/ 40.5 47.3 41.3 29.7 43.2 52.2 59.3 Imports of Goods & NFS c/ 59.9 73.0 99.3 90.8 85.4 84.0 87.9 GDP at market prices 98.2 110.3 91.7 99.7 111.4 116.0 119.3 125.2 Minus: Indirect taxes Net of subsidies d/ 13.4 14.9 12.5 7.5 13.5 15.8 16.7 18.0 GDP at factor cost 84.9 95.4 79.2 92.2 97.9 100.2 102.6 107.2 Net Factor Payments e/ 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -1.5 -4.8 6NP at factor cost 84.8 95.0 79.0 92.2 99.1 100.0 101.1 102.4 Gross Domestic Savings 2.1 0.6 -12.5 -13.4 -3.7 1.8 8.1 Net Private Transfers from abroad e/ 4.6 8.3 14.0 12.0 11.6 21.7 18.2 20.7 Gross National Savings 6.7 9.5 1.3 -1.4 9.2 23.3 24. a/ Residual. b/ Official sources and DECS Secretariat. c/ Official price indexes for exports and importsl NFS deflated by HUY index. d/ Deflated by CPI. e/ Deflated by MUY index. Sourcei Mission estimates. April, 1985 - 53 - Table 2.5: DOMINICA - IMPLICIT GDP DEFLATORS 11977 = 100) Prel. 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1902 1983 1994 GDP at earket price 100.0 110.6 133.0 156.8 160.5 167.3 176.4 182.5 GDP at factor cost 100.0 111.0 133.6 155.9 156.3 162.2 171.3 177.5 Total consueption 100.0 110.7 132.1 160.2 172.2 171.1 176.2 ... Gross domestic investment 100.0 104.6 115.5 163.7 148.1 157.4 160.2 Exports of Goods & NFS 100.0 110.1 126.2 147.7 145.6 153.6 149.7 Mercahandise exports 100.0 109.9 121.1 150.7 147.8 15B.2 154.4 Imports of goods & NFS 100.0 109.4 121.9 161.8 163.1 160.1 151.4 ... Merchandise imports 100.0 109.2 121.7 162.3 164.4 161.6 152.7 ... Consumer price index 100.0 107.7 129.1 168.5 190.9 199.3 207.5 211.7 MIUV 100.0 117.4 130.7 141.6 134.5 132.0 126.4 122.9 Sources: Tables 2.3 and 2.4. April, 1995 - 54 - Table 3.1: DOMINICA - BALANCE OF PAYNENTS (USS Billion) Prel. 1976 1977 1979 1979 1980 1991 1982 1983 1994 Exports of Goods and NFS 13.6 15.0 19.3 19.3 15.7 23.3 29.7 32.9 33.0 Merchandise Exports 11.1 12.0 16.2 9.8 10.1 19,7 25.1 27.8 26.1 Non-factor Services a/ 2.5 3.0 3.1 9.5 5.6 3.6 4.6 5.1 6.9 lmports of 6oods and NFS 19.1 22.2 29.3 40.3 5414 51.6 49.8 49,3 57.7 Merchandise Imports b/ 19.0 21.9 29.5 39.4 53.2 49.7 47.5 47.1 55.3 Non-factor Services 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.4 Resource Balance -5.5 -7.2 -10.0 -21.0 -38.7 -28.3 -20.1 -16.4 -24.7 Factor Services and Transfers 1.5 1.7 3.4 6.7 6.3 5.9 10.5 7.8 7.2 Net Factor Service Payments 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -2.2 Interest Payments c/ -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.8 ECCA Profits 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -1.1 -1.2 Transfers to Private Sector 1.3 1.7 3.6 6.8 6.3 5.8 10.6 8.5 9.4 Current Account Balance -4.0 -5.5 -6.6 -14.3 -32.4 -22.4 -9.6 -8.6 -17.5 Public Grants 2.6 4.0 5.6 20.6 18.1 9.6 5.B 4.4 11.5 Budgetary Grants 1.3 2.5 3.1 5.2 5.9 2.7 1.2 0.9 0.0 Capital Grants 1.3 1.5 2.5 5.4 6.6 6.9 4.6 3.6 11.5 Relief leport Counterpart 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Public Borrowing 1.4 2.0 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.3 8.5 5.1 4.8 Drawings 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.9 3.0 9.1 5.4 5.3 Amortization 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 Commercial Banks -0.9 -0.1 0.4 -9.1 7.4 3.0 -4.0 -2.7 1.1 Short-ters Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.4 1.5 Currency Holdings 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 ECCB 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.5 1.0 SDR Allocation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0,3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Capital,net 0.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 6.4 7.4 -1.0 4.0 -1.8 (incl. errors I omissions) Change in Reserves 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 increase) a/ For 1979-01 includes insurance receipts resulting from the hurricane. b/ 1979,1980 & 1983 include recorded imports, relief imports, and adjustments. c/ Includes interest payments to the IMF and ECCA. Sourcesi Ministry of Finance, IMF and mission estimates. April, 1995 - 55 - Table 3.2t DOMINICA - NERCHANDISE IMPORTS (C.l.F.) a/ (US$ sillion) Prel. 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Total Merchandise Imports 19.0 21.9 28.5 39.4 53.2 49.7 47.5 47.1 55.3 Consumer Goods 13.0 14.3 18.3 12.9 26.0 29.9 29.7 26.4 28.6 Food, Beverages & Tobacco 6.9 7.2 9.7 6.9 11.4 12.5 12.6 11.5 13.9 Oils and Fats 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.6 2.8 2.3 1.7 2.1 Manufactured Goods 5.9 6.6 8.1 5.5 13.0 14.6 14.8 13.2 12.6 Intermediate Goods 4.2 5.0 5.6 4.9 12.0 11.1 10.6 10.1 12.3 Fuels and Lubricants 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 5.7 Cheeicals 2.4 2.9 3.5 3.0 5.5 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.1 Raw Materials 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 2.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.5 Capital Goods 1.8 2.6 4.6 4.5 9.6 8.7 7.0 8.6 14.4 Machinery & Transport Equipment 1.8 2.6 4.6 4.5 9.6 8.7 7.0 8.6 14.4 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.2 5.6 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.0 Relief Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Adjusteents bl 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.0 a/ Total imports consist of recorded imports, relief imports, and some adjustments. b/ 1979 5 adjusteent represents the estimated value of imports landed during several weeks imnediately following the hurricane, which went unreported. 1983 - Adjustment reflects an estimated US$2 million of imports landed in December 1983, but officially recorded in 1984; these imports were mainly directed for use in the road rehabilitation program. Sources: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance and mission estieates. April, 1985 - 56 - Page I of 2 Table 3.3: DOMINICA - MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (F.O.B.) (Value in millions of US dollars; voluse in units indicated; and unit price in US dollars per unit) Jan.-June 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1993 1984 Total Merchandise Exports 11.1 12.0 16.2 9.6 10.1 19.7 25.1 27.8 12.4 Re-exports 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.5 Domestic Exports 10.7 11.7 16.0 9.5 9.7 19.3 23.4 27.1 11.9 Bananas 6.6 6.9 9.2 4.4 3.0 9.1 10.0 11.2 6.3 Volume (metric tons) 34007 30362 37016 15960 8081 27081 27478 29305 18415 Unit Price 194.0 227.4 247.6 275.7 371.2 334.8 362.7 383.4 342.1 Bay Oil 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 Volume (metric tons) 23 24 26 20 4 16 16 16 10 Unit Price ('000) 16.8 18.0 21.0 24.2 24.5 20.6 21.5 23.5 20.0 Cocoa Beans 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Volume (metric tons) 107 38 34 29 5 6 ... 0.2 Unit Price 1489.9 2142.2 1655.1 1425.0 1282.0 1500.0 ... 2391.0 ... Coconuts 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Volume (metric tons) 951 1028 1193 703 73 99 85 39 ... Unit Price 160.8 192.5 223.0 251.8 274.0 309.6 ... 309.7 Coconut Neal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Volume (metric tons) 604 583 557 574 174 73 345 710 Unit Price 97.9 114.9 102.1 120.2 121.6 122.7 132.0 101.6 ... Coconut Oil 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.9 Volume ('000 liters) 1902 1240 1310 931 514 140 727 1223 552 Unit Price 529.8 571.7 629.2 696.0 726.0 823.3 1538.5 1309.0 1630.4 Grapefruit 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 Volume (metric tons) 2517 2102 3484 1006 137B 1400 2653 2464 1089 Unit Price 169.6 168.1 207.9 197.8 290.3 282.0 272.2 253.5 183.7 6rapefruit Juice 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Voluse ('000 liters) 358.0 546.0 484.0 347.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 ... Unit Price 769.2 878.3 728.4 680.1 ... ... ... 1034.9 ... Limes 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Volume (metric tons) 266 293 430 343 173 260 207 191 168 Unit Price 282.6 276.7 271.7 271.1 289.0 268.9 268.4 271.9 ... -- - - - - - - - - --_--_- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 57 - Page 2 of 2 Table 3.3: DOMINICA - MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (F.O.B.) (Value in millions of US dollars; voluse in units indicated; and unit price in US dollars per unit) Jan.-June 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1991 1982 1983 1984 Lime Juice 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 Voluee ('000 liters) 228 252 251 148 18 73 61 52 ... Unit Price 964.1 1035.7 1072.0 1047.3 543.3 2498.3 1627.2 3292.9 ... Lime Oil 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Volume (metric tons) 10.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 0.0 2.1 2.0 3.0 2.0 Unit Price ('000) 17.0 19.6 21.0 22.0 ... 31.3 29.0 32.6 50.0 Oranges 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Volume (metric tons) 556 460 724 146 132 307 349 526 ... Unit Price 246.3 232.4 239.8 239.7 237.7 240.0 239.8 237.9 . Fresh Vegetables 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.0 Volume (metric tons) 742 948 742 295 27B 331 514 863 ... Unit Price 336.6 361.5 396.8 475.1 562.1 670.2 652.0 653.7 ... Plantains 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 Volume (metric tons) 591 495 538 368 140 224 310 502 314 Unit Price 263.8 296.8 315.5 252.6 571.4 561.6 567.5 562.6 636.9 Toilet and Laundry Soap 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.7 4.9 7.6 8.7 7.5 2.0 Volume (metric tons) 570 1522 3405 2182 5103 6810 6760 6069 1525 Unit Price 523.0 579.0 545.0 794.3 951.6 1115.5 1287.0 1242.1 1311.5 5alvanized Sheets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.8 Volume (metric tons) 0 0 0 0 0 0 539 2231 916 Unit Price ... ... ... 0.. ... ... 990.3 917.7 973.4 Stamps 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 Others 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 2.0 1.1 Sources: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance and IMF mission stimates. October, 1984 - 58 - Table 3.4s DOMINICA - EXPORT, IMPORT AND TERMS OF TRADE INDICE (1977 : 100) Prel. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1993 1984 Export Value 135.0 81.7 84.2 164.2 209.2 231.7 217.5 Unit Price 108.9 121.1 150.7 147.7 159.2 157.1 Import Value a/ 130.1 179.9 242.9 226.9 216.9 215.1 252.5 Unit Price 108.2 121.7 162.3 164.4 161.6 159.6 Teres of Trade Comuodity 100.6 99.5 92.9 89.9 97.9 98.4 Incoee 124.8 67.1 51.9 99.9 129.5 145.2 it Figures for 1979,1980 & 1983 include recorded isports, relief iiports and certain adjustments. Source: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance. April, 1985 - 59 - Table 3.5s DOMINICA - DIRECTION OF TRADE (In percent) Prel. 1979 1990 1991 1982 1913 1914 Total exports by destination 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 United Kingdom 55.5 34.5 52.1 44.3 43.7 46.9 OECS 14.1 20.6 9.9 7.2 7.3 10.7 Rest of CARICON 17.1 40.9 33.4 37.4 41.8 34.3 Other Caribbean 5.9 2.7 2.9 2.7 4.1 6.1 United States 3.9 0.6 1.6 1.3 2.4 1.6 Canada 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Other EEC 1.3 0.0 0.1 2.6 0.4 0.3 Other 0.7 0.7 0.0 4.5 0.2 0.1 Total isports by origin a/ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 United Kingdoe 25.0 23.1 19.2 16.6 18.1 12.8 OECS 11.6 10.6 11.5 13.2 14.5 9.2 Rest of CARICON 16.2 16.2 15.4 14.1 12.5 11.9 Other Caribbean 9.5 7.5 9.9 10.6 10.6 10.3 United States 14.1 22.4 24.8 27.9 23.1 26.6 Canada 5.0 4.1 4.8 4.3 3.2 7.7 Other EEC 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.6 15.0 Asia 7.4 6.4 5.5 5.3 9.6 1.7 Other 5.9 4.5 3.7 2.7 2.8 4.8 a/ Figures for 1979,1980 & 1983 refer to recorded and nonrelief imports only. Sources: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance and INF staff estimates. April, 1985 - 60 - Table 4.1, DOMINICA - SUMMARY OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS 1979 1990 1991 19B2 1983 1984 (In thousinds of U.S. dollars) Outstanding debt it end of period 15198 17678 24116 34334 40125 42686 IMF debt 2502 2104 7536 10286 11515 10455 Outstanding debt at beginning of period 0 2502 2104 7536 10286 11515 DraNings 2502 0 5785 3129 2549 1530 Amortization (-) 0 0 0 0 739 1810 Valuation adjustment 0 -39B -353 -379 -582 -780 Other debt 12696 15574 16580 2404B 28610 32233 Outstanding debt at beginning of period 12234 12082 15574 16580 24048 28610 Dravings 993 1751 3031 9034 5352 5267 Central government 964 227 5062 2917 4278 Public enterprises 517 1910 3477 1483 222 Financial intermediaries 270 894 495 952 767 Amortization 286 242 654 665 365 456 Central goverimeent 195 359 247 249 366 Public enterprisus 19 268 344 40 30 Financial intermediaries 28 27 74 76 60 Valuation sdjustment -245 1183 -1371 -901 -425 -1188 Debt service payment 644 649 1129 1442 2613 4081 Amortization 286 242 654 665 1103 2266 IMF 0 0 0 0 738 1810 Other 286 242 654 665 365 456 Interest 358 407 475 777 ISIO 1815 IMF 0 92 257 598 835 980 Other 358 315 218 179 675 835 Source: IMF staff. April,1985 - 61 - Table 5.1i DOMINICA - CENTRAL BOVERNHENT EXPENDITURES (ECS eillion) Fiscal Years a/ Budget 1978179 1979/80 1990/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1994/85 Current expenditure 32.8 56.1 65.1 62.7 62.6 69.5 74.3 Wages and salaries 16.3 25.9 36.6 38.2 35.8 39.6 41.5 of which: wage & salary arrears 0.0 0.0 5.9 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Social security 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 Goods and services 9.0 10.6 9.5 11.5 12.0 13.5 13.3 Interest b/ 2.2 2.2 4.7 3.9 4.7 6.3 6.6 Retireeent benefits 1.7 1.6 2.8 3.3 4.3 4.3 5.5 Transfers 3.6 13.3 11.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 7.4 Local governments 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 Broadcasting Corporation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Land Nanagesent Authority 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Development & Planning Corp. 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tourist Board 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Housing Development Corporation 0.1 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Industrial Developeent Corp. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Banana 6rowers' Association 0.0 4.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Central Water Authority 0.2 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Port Authority 0.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lotteries Commission 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Agricultural Marketing Board 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Schools and scholarships 1.5 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.4 National Commercial and Developeent Bank 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Abroad 0.6 0.6 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.1 3.2 Other 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 Emergency relief 0.0 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital expenditure and net lending 10.9 13.3 24.6 23.0 23.7 34.6 49.7 Budgetary ... 10.3 19.5 21.0 21.1 18.3 ... Extrabudgetary c/ ... 3.2 6.1 1.1 3.6 16.3 ... Net lending ... ... ... 0.9 1.0 -- a/ Fiscal year beginning July 1. bl 1980/81 includes EC$1.3 million paid on behalf of the Port Authority, Central water Authority, Housing Developeent Corporation, and the citrus packing plant. c/ Includes CIDA, EDF, U.S.A.I.D., and World Bank expenditures made directly by aid agencies and not recorded in Treasury Books. Sourcesi Ministry of Finance; Fund staff and mission estimates. April, 1985 - 62 - Table 5.2: DOMINICA - FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION OF CENTRAL 6OvERNHENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE (EC$ million) Fiscal Years 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 Total 56.1 65.1 62.7 62.6 69.5 74.3 Seneral public services 16.1 20.6 20.3 16.4 19.0 6eneral administration 7.1 12.5 12.5 9.6 10.0 Public order and safiety a/ 9.0 8.1 7.8 6.8 9.0 Education 7.9 10.2 11.4 12.2 13.5 Health 8.1 7.7 8.5 9.5 9.5 Social security and welfare 2.2 3.7 4.1 4.3 5.3 Housing and comeunity amenities 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.5 0.8 Economic services 12.1 14.5 11.0 9.8 12.1 General administratiion & research 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 Agriculture and forestry 3.9 7.9 4.5 3.9 4.3 Roads 6.4 5.1 5.3 4.5 4.6 Other transportation 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 Communication 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.8 Post Office 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 1.1 Hurricane relief 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Interest charges 2.2 4.7 3.9 4.7 6.1 Overseas grants 2.6 1.7 1.3 3.1 2.1 a/ Includes small asoujnts for defense. Sources: Ministry of Finance; and IMF staff estimates. April, 1995 - 63 - Table 5.3: DOMINICA - STRUCTURE OF CENTRAL BOVERNIMENT DOMESTIC DEBT a! (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) 1979 1980 1991 1992 1983 1984 June Dec. June Dec. June Dec. June Dec. June Dec. March Total 18.6 18.0 1?.6 22.4 23.4 22.9 23.3 22.6 22.9 24.4 24.5 Debentures 8.6 8.6 9.4 10.4 11.4 11.2 11.5 11.3 11.4 12.9 12.9 Commercial banks 5.0 5.0 5.7 6.8 7.5 7.3 7.6 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.9 Insurance companies 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Social security scheme 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 4.2 4.2 Private sector 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Treasury bills 10.0 9.4 10.2 12.0 12.0 11.7 11.8 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 Nat'l Commercial & Dev. Bank 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Other commercial banks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Doeinica Mortgage Company 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Insurance companies 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Social security scheme 7.1 7.1 8.1 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 Banana 6rowers Association 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Private sector 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Government Savings Bank 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Credit unions 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 External Trade Bureau 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 a! Excludes debt owed to the ECCA/ECCB. Source: Ministry of Finance. October 1984 - 64 - Table 5.4: DOMINICA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE (EC$ million) Fiscal Years Budget 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1992/83 1983/84 1984/85 Total Current Revenue 25.6 31.4 47.9 56.8 57.7 69.7 76.2 Tax Revenue 23.5 27.4 42.8 49.1 49.4 60.2 65.9 Taxes on incose 5.4 8.3 14.7 15.9 16.5 18.7 20.9 Individuals 4.3 6.9 11.8 13.8 14.8 16.0 17.9 Companies 1.1 1.4 2.9 2.1 1.7 2.7 3.0 Taxes on property 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Estate duty 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Taxes on doeestic production and consueption 8.8 12.7 20.4 22.2 22.3 27.1 30.2 Consumption tax 6.5 10.4 17.6 19.8 18.7 22.5 25.0 Package tax 0.7 O.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 Entertaineent tax 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Hotel Occupancy tax 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 Embarkation tax 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 Tax exit certificate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Electricity sales tax 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Bank deposits levy 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 Licenses 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 Taxes on foreign trade 5.9 5.3 6.7 9.4 8.8 12.3 12.6 lmport duties 4.1 3.9 6.6 8.3 7.5 10.2 10.3 Export duties 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Foreign exchange levy 1.4 1.3 0.0 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.0 Other 3.3 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 Stamp duty 3.3 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 Travel tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 Nontax Revenue 2.1 4.0 5.0 7.7 8.3 9.5 10.3 Rents and interest 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1 Receipts from government depart- ments and other fees 1.5 3.3 3.2 4.7 5.0 5.0 7.2 Currency profits 0.5 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.7 3.4 2.0 Sources: Ministry of Finance and IMF estimates. April, 1985 - 65 - Table 5.5: DOMINICA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS (EC$ million) Fiscal Years Budget 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/92 1992/83 1983/84 1984185 Current revenue 25.6 31.4 47.8 56.8 57.7 69.7 76.2 Current expenditure 32.9 56.1 65.1 62.7 62.6 69.5 74.3 Current account balance -7.2 -24.7 -17.3 -5.9 -4.9 0.2 1.9 Capital expenditure and net lending 10.9 15.5 24.6 23.0 25.7 34.6 49.7 Overall surplus/deficit H-) -18.1 -40.2 -41.9 -29.9 -30.6 -34.4 -47.8 Financing (net) 1.1 40.2 41.9 29.9 30.6 34.4 47.8 Foreign grants 17.2 34.2 27.5 12.2 14.4 20.5 27.5 Bugetary grants 9.8 19.3 12.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 Capital grants 9.4 14.9 15.2 10.0 13.4 20.5 27.5 Net foreign borrowing 0.3 0.3 2.3 3.8 12.0 10.5 13.5 Net ECCA borrowing 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.5 IMF 0.7 9.1 10.3 9.7 7.6 0.7 -0.9 SDR allocation 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in government foreign assets 1- * increase) -2.1 -0.1 -2.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 Residual 2.0 -3.6 1.1 3.9 -3.3 1.3 5.9 Sources: Ministry of Finance and mission estimates. April, 1985 - 66 - Page I of 5 Table 5.6. DOMINICA - SUNNARY OPERATIONS OF GENERAL SOYERNNENT a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years b/ 1979/80 1950/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/B4 I. Rest of General Governeent (consolidated accounts) Current revenue 5.1 6.7 7.7 8.4 8.8 Social Security contributions 3.1 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 From Central Bovernment 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 From rest of public sector 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 From private sector 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 Local tuxes 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 Other 1.7 2.3 2.9 3.1 2.8 Currant expenditure 4.3 4.7 4.1 4.9 4.4 Wges and salaries 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8 Inteuest 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 Boods and services 2.0 1.9 1.4 2.0 1.4 Other 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 Current account surplus 0. 2.0 3.6 3.5 4.4 Central governeent transfers 3.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.8 Capital receipts 0.1 1.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 Capital expenditure 1.7 1.0 1.5 2.3 1.0 Overall surplus/deficit (-) 2.9 4.4 3.2 2.9 4.2 Financing -2.9 -4.4 -3.2 -2.9 -4.2 Foreign loans (net) 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Domestic filnancing (net) -2.9 -4.1 -3.4 -2.9 -4.2 -- - - -- - -- - - - -- - - -- - - - -- - - -- - - -- - - - -- - -- - - - - 67 - Page 2 of 5 Table 5.6: DOMINICA - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF GENERAL BOVERNMENT a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Calendar Years 1979 1990 1981 1982 1993 II. Social Security Schese c/ Current revenue 3.3 4.8 5.8 6.3 7.1 Contributions 2.4 3.8 4.4 4.6 5.2 From Central government 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 From rest of public sector 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 From private sector 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.3 Interest 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.9 Current expenditure 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.9 Wages and salaries 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 Goods and services 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Other (benefits) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 Current balance (excl. contrib. from public sector) 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.3 Current account surplus 2.5 3.6 4.4 4.8 5.2 Capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 1.3 Overall surplus/deficit (-) 2.5 3.6 4.4 2.5 3.9 Investments (increase : -) -2.5 -3.6 -4.4 -2.5 -3.9 Deposits -1.4 -0.8 -3.2 -2.3 -2.4 Comeercial banks -1.4 -0.9 -3.2 -2.3 -1.9 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 Government -0.6 -2.7 0.0 -0.4 -1.4 Treasury bills -0.6 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Debentures 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -1.4 Loans -0.5 0.2 -1.1 0.1 -0.2 Development & Planning Corp. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 Housing Development Corp. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 Banna Growers Association -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Roseau Credit Union 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 Other -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.0 Residual 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.1 - 68 - Page 3 of 5 Table 5.6: DOMINICA - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF GENERAL GOVERNMENT a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years b/ 1979/80 1900/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 III. Local Governments dV Current revenue 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 Local taxes 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 Other 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Current expenditure 1.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.3 Wages and salaries 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 6oods and services 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 Current balance -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 Transfers from Central Gov't 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 IV. Broadcasting Corporation Current revenue 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 Advertising 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.3 Other 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 Current expenditure 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 Wages and salaries 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Goods and services 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 Current balance -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Transfers from Central Gov't 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 V. Tourist Board Current expenditure 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 Wages and salaries 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Goods and services 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Transfers firom Central Gov't 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 - 69 - Page 4 of 5 Table 5.6 DOhINICA - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF GENERAL GOVERNMENT a/ (In sillions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years b/ 1979/80 1990/81 1981/82 1992/B3 1983/84 VI. Land Management Authority Current expenditure 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wages and salaries e/ 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Current balance -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Transfers from Central Gov't 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Financing 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Financial system 0.1 - - - - VII. Development and Planning Corporation f/ Current revenue - - - - - Current expenditure 0 .3 0. 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Wages and salaries e/ 0.1 0.2 0.0 0,0 0.0 6oods and services 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Current balance -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Transfers from Central Gov't 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Financing 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 70 - Page 5 of 5 Table 5.6: DOMINICA - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF GENERAL GOVERNMENT a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years bl 1979/90 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 19B3/B4 VII. Housing Development Corporation 9/ Current revenue 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 Sales of cement - 0.2 - - - Service and rental income 0.2 0.4 0 .5 0.5 - Current expenditure 0.7 1.5 0.7 1.3 0.0 Wages and salaries 05 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 Interest 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 Goods and services 0.2 0.9 0.2 0. 0.0 Current balance -0.5 -0.9 -0.2 -0.9 - Capital receipts 0,1 1.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 Sales of land 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0 - Insurance claims 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 - Capital expenditure 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 Transfers 'from Central Gov't 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Overall ba;lance 0.0 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 - Financing 0.0 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 Foreign borrowing (net) 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Domestic borrowing (net) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 a/ Excluding Central Government. The General Government consists of the Social Security Scheme, Local Bovernments, Broadcasting Corp., Tourist Board, Land Managesent Authority, Housing Developeent Corp., and Development & Planning Corp.; the latter three have been abolished. b/ Fiscal year beginning July 1. c/ Accounts on a calendar basis. d/ Represents 2 towns and 47 village councils. e/ 1980/01 figures represent payments by Central government on wage arrears. f/ In 1979 the Development and Planning Corporation was abolished. g/ Includes Central Housing and Planning Authority which was incorporated into the Ministry of Home Affairs and Housing on July 1, 1982. The Housing Development Corporation itself ceased to exist as of January 1, 1993. Sources: Annual reports and balance sheets; and Fund staff estimates. October, 1984 - 71 - Page I of 5 Table 5.7: DOMINICA - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF NONFINANCIAL PUBLIC ENTERPRISES a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years b/ 1979/80 1980/91 1981/82 1962/B3 1983/84 I. Public Enterprises (consolidated accounts) Current revenue 16.8 25.7 34.9 37.0 42.3 Bross sales 9.7 15.9 24.6 27.1 31.9 Other income 7.1 9.8 10.3 9.9 10.5 Current expenditure 30.5 38.5 40.4 38.8 38.4 Cost of sales 4.8 7.7 11.2 11.7 12.8 Wages and salaries 3.8 6.7 7.8 7.9 6.8 Interest 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 Export tax 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Transfer of inputs 5.4 4.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 Cash subsidies-banana growers 6.3 3.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 Goods and services 9.3 14.3 17.5 16.7 16.5 Others 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.2 Current account surplus/deficit -13.7 -12.9 -5.5 -1.8 3.9 Central government transfers 7.0 5.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 =- - - - - - -- - - - - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- - - - - - Capital receipts and grants 3.5 3.9 6.1 2.9 2.3 Capital expenditure 3.8 3.1 9.1 5.2 3.0 Overall surplus/deficit (-) -7.1 -6.9 -6.4 -3.8 3.3 Financing 7.1 6.9 6.4 3.8 -3.3 Foreign borrowing (net) 2.7 3.7 5.5 5.1 1.0 Domestic financing (net) 4.4 3.3 0.9 -1.3 -4.3 - 72 - Page 2 of 5 Table 5.7: DOMINICA - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF NONFINANCIAL PUBLIC ENTERPRISES a/ (In sillions of East Caribbean dollars) Calendar Years 197q 1q80 19B1 1982 1983 II. Dominica Banana Growers Association c/ Recurrent revenue 13.0 9.3 23.1 24.9 28.2 Banana siales 11.2 7.5 23.0 24.8 28.0 Other income 1.8 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 Recurrent expenditure 23.2 24.3 31.6 27.5 28.8 lages, sialaries & gratuities 1.8 2.3 3.4 3.6 3.0 Soods and services 11.0 7.0 23.6 21.9 23.9 a.w. banana purchases 5.8 3.8 11.6 10.8 12.6 Interest 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 Export tax 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Contributions to WINBAN 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 Cash subsidies-banana growers 6.1 6.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 Transfers of inputs to banana growers fr. foreign resources 3.3 7.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 Insurance 0.1 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.1 Grants to Coop. boxing plant 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 Provision for doubtful debt 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Current balance -10.2 -15.0 -8.5 -2.6 -0.6 (excl. gov t transfers) Transfers from Central gov t 2.2 7.7 1.5 0.6 0.3 Capital receipts and grants 2.4 3.9 1.4 3.2 1.3 Capital expenditure -0.4 2.2 1.0 -0.3 0.6 Fixed capital formation 0.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.4 Inventory changes -0.6 0.5 0.4 -0.4 0.2 Overall surplus/deficit H-) -5.2 -5.6 -6.6 1.5 0.4 Financing 5.2 5.6 6.6 -1.5 -0.4 Foreign borrowing (net) d/ -0.1 4.0 2.7 0.8 1.4 Domestic borrowing (net) e/ 4.2 1.7 1.5 0.0 -1.1 Financial system 3.6 0.1 1.4 0.0 -1.1 Treasury bills 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other domestic 0.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Residual f/ 1.1 -0.1 2.4 -2.3 -0.7 --- --- -- --- -- --- - --- --- -- --- -- -- -- - - --- -- --- -- -- -- -_ -- - 73 - Page 3 of 5 Table 5.7S ONINICA - SUNNARY OPERATIONS OF NONFINANCIAL PUBLIC ENTERPRISES a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Calendar Years ---_-_---__--__----------------_----------_------- 1979 1980 1981 1962 1983 111. Central Niter Authority c/ Current revenue 0,5 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.6 Current expenditure 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.8 Nages and salaries 0.7 0.6 0. 1.2 1.3 Goods and services 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Current balante Iexcl.transfers) -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 Trinsfers fron Central gov't 1.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Brants 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 Capital expenditure 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.0 Overall surplus/deficit 1-) 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.8 Financing -0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 Foreign borrowing (net) 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.7 Doetstic borrowing (net) -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 Central governeent 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Social security scheme 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Financial system -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Residual -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 MV External Trade Bureau c/ Current revenue 2.6 4.5 5.1 4.6 4.1 Current expenditure 3.3 5.1 5.1 4.3 3.7 Wages and salaries 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Soods and services 3.2 4.9 4.9 4.1 3.5 Current balance -0.7 -0.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 Transfers to Central gov't 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 Capital expenditure 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Overall surplus/deficit H-) -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.0 Financing 1.4 0.6 0.1 -0.3 0.0 Foreign borrowing (net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic borrowing (net) 1.4 0.6 0.1 -0.3 0.0 Central government 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 Financial system 1.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0,1 Other domestic 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 - 74 - Page 4 of 5 Table 5.7: DOMINICA - SUMNARY OPERATIONS OF NONFINANCIAL PUBLIC ENTERPRISES a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Calendar Years 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 V. Agricultural Marketing Board c/ Current revenue 01 0.6 0.7 0.7 0,6 Sales 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 Other 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 00 Current expenditure 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 Wages and salaries 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 Goods and services 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 Current balance -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 Transfers 4ro, Central gov't Ol 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 6rants 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 Capital expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Overall surplus/deficit H-) -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 Financing 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 _- - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ----- Foreign borrowing (net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 Domestic borrowing (net) 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0,2 0.0 VI. Forest Industries Development Corporation c/gI Current revenue 0.2 01 0.3 0.1 0.0 Current expenditure 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 Current balance 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 Capital receipt (U.K.) 0,0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 Capital expenditure 0.0 0,1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Overall surplus/deficit I-) 0.0 0,0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Financing 0,0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Domestic borrowing (net) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 - 75 - Palo 5 of 5 Table 5.7: DOIINICA - SUMMARY OPERATIONS OF NONFINANCIAL PUBLIC ENTERPRISES a/ (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years b/ 1979/80 1980/81 1991182 1982/83 1963184 vII. Port Authority h/ Current revenue 1.1 2.9 3.6 3.7 3.7 Current expenditure 1.0 3.5 3.7 4.3 3.6 Wages and salaries 0.7 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.2 Goods and serYices 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 Interest 0.0 0,1 0.6 0.7 0.7 Current balance (excl.transfers) 0.1 -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 Transfers from Central gov't 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital receipts and grants 0.0 0.5 3.2 0.2 0.4 Capital expenditure 1,6 0.5 7.1 4.3 0.9 Overall surplus/deficit (1- -0.6 -0.4 -4.0 -4.7 -0,4 Financing 0.6 0.4 4.0 4.7 0.4 Foreign borrowing (net) 0.6 0.0 3.6 3.7 0.0 Domestic borrowing (net) 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.4 VIII. Lotteries Commission b/il Current revenue 0.1 0.2 0.1 0,0 0.0 Ticket sales 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Current expenditure 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Wages and salaries 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Goods and services 0.2 0,2 0,0 0.0 0.0 Current balance -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Transfers from Central gov t 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 a/ Nonfinancial Public Enterprises consist of the Banana Growers Ass., Central Water Authority, External Trade Bureau, Agricultural Marketing Board, Port Authority, Forestry Industries Development Corporation,and Lotteries Commission; the latter two have been abolished. b/ Fiscal year beginning July 1. c/ Financial year ends December 31. d/ Includes borrowing from Caribbean Aid Project channeled through Central governeent and borrowing from the Dominica Agricultural & Industrial Bank. el Variation in net assets with commercial banks, f/ Includes accounts payable and receivable. g/ Merged into a private enterprise as of June 30, 1982. h/ Relates to fiscal year ending Septeeber 30 for the first two years of the period under review, and fiscal year ending June 30 for the remaining period, i/ The Lotteries Commission ceased operations as of August 1, 1982. Sources: Annual reports and balance sheets of public enterprises; and IMF staff estimates, October, 1984 - 76 - Table 5.8: DOMINICA - CONSOLIDATED ACCOUNTS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years a/ I979/B0 1980/11 1981182 182/83 1983/84 Current revenue 72.5 92.5 101.6 104.1 121.1 6eneral governeent 55.6 66.6 66.7 67.1 78.8 Non-financial public enterprises 16.8 25.7 34.9 37.0 42.3 Current expenditure 80.2 101.5 105.0 105.3 112.2 General government 4.6 63.0 64.7 66.6 73.8 Non-financial public enterprises 30.5 38.5 40.4 3898 39.4 Current account surplus/deficit -7.7 -9.1 -3.5 -1.3 6.9 general government 6.0 3.6 2.0 0.6 5.0 Non-financial public enterprises -13.7 -12.9 -5.5 -1.9 3.9 Capital receipts 3.6 5.7 6.1 3.9 2.3 6eneral government 0.1 1.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 Nan-financial public enterprises 3.5 3.9 6.1 2.9 2.3 Capital expenditure/net lending 21.0 28.7 32.5 33.0 31.9 Central government 15.5 24.6 23.0 25.7 26.7 Rest of public sector 5.5 4.1 9.5 7.3 3.2 Overall surlpus/deficit (-) -25.1 -32.1 -29.9 -30.4 -20.7 Financing (net) 25.1 32.1 29.9 30.4 20.7 Capital grants 14.9 15.2 10.0 13.4 10.4 Foreign Icans (net) 3.0 5.7 9.5 17.1 9.5 ECCA borrowing (net) 0.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 IMF 8.1 10.3 8.7 7.6 0.7 SDR allocation 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic financing -2.2 -1.8 1.8 -7.7 -1.3 a/ Fiscal year beginning July 1. Source: Mission estimates. October, 1994 - 77 - Table 5.9: DOMINICA - FINANCING OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT 1In millions of East Caribbean dollars) Fiscal Years ai 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 Pub. sector capital expenditure 21.0 28.7 32.5 33.2 36.8 Central governeent b/ 17.2 25.6 24.5 28.0 33.8 Rest of public sector 3.6 3.1 8.1 5.2 3.0 Financing 21.0 28.7 32.5 33.2 36.8 Public sector savings -7.7 -9.1 -3.5 -1.3 8.9 Net external financing 26.7 31.9 29.2 36.1 20.6 Capital grants 14.9 15.2 10.0 13.4 10.4 Foreign loans (net) 3.0 5.7 9.5 17.1 9.5 Other (IMF) 8.8 11.0 8.7 7.6 0.7 Net dosestic financing 2.0 5.9 7.9 -3.7 7.3 Net ECCA/ECCB 0.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 Other 1.4 3.9 7.8 -3.7 5.9 a/ Fiscal year beginning July 1. b/ For 1983/84, INDUSTRIAL ESTATES are not included in the public sector. Sources: Table 5.6 and mission estimates. October 1984 - 78 - Page I of 4 Table 5.10: DOMINICA - ON60hIN PUBLIC SECTOR INVESThENT PROSRAN (In thousands of East Caribbean dollars) 1983/14 1984/95 1985/96 1986/97 Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Central 60vernment Caribbean Development Bank 691 691 0 694 694 0 303 303 0 0 0 0 Feeder roads 35 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feeder roads (study) 27 27 0 103 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Roseau east bridge 189 189 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rehabilitation hurricane damage 440 440 0 591 591 0 303 303 0 0 0 0 United Kingdom 2111 2111 0 3220 3220 0 1589 1589 0 662 662 0 Tree crop diversification 520 520 0 601 601 0 536 536 0 255 255 0 Reforestation & plant nursery 201 201 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coffee rehab. & developeent 177 177 0 305 305 0 271 271 0 0 0 0 UK scholarship and training 82 82 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ODI market intelligence officer 24 24 0 34 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Portsmouth-Capuchin road 254 254 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Input storage warehouse 24 24 0 8 a 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PWD plant and equipment 149 149 0 367 367 0 358 358 0 407 407 0 Community develop. & self-help 403 403 0 604 604 0 305 305 0 0 0 0 Atkinson school 19 19 0 4 4 O 0 0 0 0 0 0 Woodford Hill school 0 0 0 43 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 College of Further education 44 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Courts & registry building 69 69 0 255 255 0 119 119 0 0 0 0 Morne Bruce Storehouse 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Scotts Head School Phase I 0 0 0 231 231 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dnlices school 137 137 0 665 665 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 C.ID.A. 6838 6938 0 10155 10155 0 9862 8980 982 2189 1307 B82 Coconut rehab. & expansion 1050 1050 0 1289 1289 0 2110 1228 982 1641 759 882 Portsmouth-Hatton Barden road 4412 4412 0 8140 8140 0 7204 7204 0 0 0 0 Canadian built facilities 309 308 0 164 164 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Melville Hall airport - rehab. 520 520 0 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mission administered funds 548 549 0 549 548 0 548 548 0 548 548 0 U.S. AI.. 10043 10043 0 9938 9939 0 7012 7012 0 0 0 0 Airport road 5921 5921 0 9508 8509 0 7012 7012 0 0 0 0 Rehab, of water resources 152 152 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Program assistance (cash grant) 3970 3970 0 1430 1430 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 79 - Page 2 of 4 Table 5.10i DOMINICA - ONGOING PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTHENT PR06RAH (In thousands of East Caribbean dollarsl 1993/84 1994/85 1985/86 1986/B7 Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local European Developeent Fund IEDF) 2890 2890 0 5496 5496 0 2026 1726 300 1475 1175 300 Essential oils I 166 166 0 263 263 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fresh water prawn culture 399 389 0 197 187 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lime rehabilitation 0 0 0 682 692 0 900 800 0 645 645 0 Ornasental plants 101 101 0 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fruit production & processing 378 378 0 500 500 0 500 500 0 500 500 0 Pointe-Casse/Castle Bruce road 1596 1596 0 3600 3600 0 126 126 0 0 0 0 Colihaut-Arose feeder road 140 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hicroprojects 120 120 0 250 250 0 600 300 300 330 30 300 Inter'l Development Association 3961 3961 0 4330 4330 0 2744 2744 0 0 0 0 Road maintenance 3861 3861 0 4330 4330 0 2744 2744 0 0 0 0 O.P.E.C. Fund 1430 1430 0 1350 1350 0 1350 1350 0 1350 1350 0 Road project 1430 1430 0 1350 1350 0 1350 1350 0 1350 1350 0 I.F.A.D. 960 960 0 791 791 0 765 765 0 0 0 0 Food production 960 960 0 791 791 0 765 765 0 0 0 0 Trinidad and Tobago 664 664 0 600 600 0 3790 3790 0 3390 3390 0 Feeder roads 130 130 0 100 100 0 1790 1790 0 1390 1390 0 Farmer service center 50 SO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Low cost housing 494 494 0 500 500 0 2000 2000 0 2000 2000 0 Venezuela 500 500 0 1759 1359 400 2100 1800 300 0 0 0 Pointe Michel-Soufriere road 500 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Asphalt 0 0 0 729 729 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Housing construction 0 0 0 1030 630 400 2100 1900 300 0 0 0 F.A.O. 133 133 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emergency fare inputs 70. 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hillsborough agric. station 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Feeder roads 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 I.L.O. 123 123 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reforestation/soil conservation 109 109 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Forest roads 14 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 80 - Page 3 of 4 Table 5.10: DOMINICA - ONGOING PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM (In thousands of East Caribbean dollars) 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Others 2773 472 2301 3966 2840 1126 3950 450 3500 3500 0 3500 Skills training (OAS) 114 114 0 146 146 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Medical stores bldg. (IPPF) 20 20 0 101 101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Health education (UNFPA) 67 67 0 65 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pr. Margaret hospital (Dutch) 245 245 0 350 200 150 450 450 0 0 0 0 Middle incose housing 26 26 0 28 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others 2301 0 2301 3276 2300 976 3500 0 3500 3500 0 3500 Sub-total - Central Government 33017 30716 2301 42299 40773 1526 35491 30509 4982 12566 7884 4682 Rest of the public sector Caribbean Developsent Bank 2562 2562 0 1990 1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Banana rehabilitation 127 127 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deep Water Port rehabilitation 348 348 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial estates 1796 1796 0 1531 1531 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial estates II 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Hydro-elect. resources (expl.) 275 275 0 459 459 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 United Kingdom 1438 1438 0 224 224 0 733 733 0 0 0 0 DAMB cold storage 52 52 0 44 44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Banana industry inputs 870 870 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Banana ext. training 1983184 496 496 0 180 180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Banana extension 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Banana support scheme 0 0 0 0 0 0 733 733 0 0 0 0 C.I.D.A. 377 377 0 108 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Deep Water Port shed 377 377 0 108 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S.A.I.D. 354 354 0 3000 3000 0 1371 1371 0 0 0 0 Banana improvement scheme 354 354 0 3000 3000 0 1371 1371 0 0 0 0 - 81 - Page 4 of 4 Table 5.10: DOMINICA - ONGOING PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM (In thousands of East Caribbean dollars) 1983/84 1984/85 19851B6 1986/87 Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local OPEC 2226 2145 91 204 204 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Bulk shipment of water 430 349 81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Industrial estates 1796 1796 0 204 204 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Others 66 66 0 225 225 0 1011 1011 0 1011 1011 0 BEAdata entry equipment 66 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Regional input supply schese 0 0 0 225 225 0 1011 1011 0 1011 1011 0 Subtotal - Rest of Public Sector 7023 6942 81 5751 5751 0 3115 3115 0 1011 1011 0 TOTAL - ONGOING 40040 37658 2382 48050 46524 1526 38606 33624 4982 13577 6B95 4692 =:==:======~~~~2==== zz== =:Z===.= ====== Cz= =C==== 2===== ====== ====== ==== ===== z===-= ==== ==== Central Governsent 33017 30716 2301 42299 40773 1526 35491 30509 4982 12566 7884 4682 Rest of Public Sector 7023 6942 81 5751 5751 0 3115 3115 0 1011 1011 0 Note: Student loan III 154 154 0 278 279 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Student loan IV 0 0 0 0 0 0 200 200 0 200 200 0 global line of credit 780 780 0 1042 1042 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 The above projects are guaranteed by the governeent but go to the private sector. Sources: Ministry of Finance; Caribbean Development Dank; and staff estimates. April, 1985 - 82 - Page I of 2 Table 5.11: DOMINICA - PROPOSED NEW PROJECTS, 1984/85 - 86/87 (In thousands of East Caribbean dollurs) 1993/84 1994/85 1985/86 1986/87 Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Central Government Caribbean Developsmnt link 0 0 0 0 0 0 2181 1981 200 5900 5460 440 Feeder roads III 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 1800 200 5600 5190 410 Fish sarketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 191 181 0 300 270 30 United Kingdoe 0 0 0 1191 1191 0 2047 2047 0 1036 663 373 Road projects 0 0 0 933 933 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Belics school equipuent 0 0 0 78 78 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coffee development II 0 0 0 0 0 0 119 119 0 629 256 373 Radio equipment - Police 0 0 0 170 170 0 231 231 0 0 0 0 PWD maintenance & equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0 1359 1358 0 407 407 0 Printery 0 0 0 0 0 0 339 339 0 0 0 0 European Development Fund (EDF) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 575 925 1369 523 846 Essential oils 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 1500 575 925 1369 523 846 U.S.A.I.D. 0 0 0 875 875 0 700 700 0 315 315 0 Basic Needs Trust Fund 0 0 0 875 875 0 700 700 0 315 315 0 France 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 0 3050 3050 0 Canefield airport extension 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 0 3050 3050 0 F.A.0. 0 0 0 175 151 24 372 348 24 51 39 12 Agric. training research and Development center II 0 0 0 175 151 24 102 78 24 51 39 12 Pilot produce collection and preparation center 0 0 0 0 0 0 270 270 0 0 0 0 Others 0 0 0 570 120 450 3805 3454 351 7532 6239 1293 Dairy developeent I 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 39 31 86 55 31 Livestock Training and demonstration center 0 0 0 0 0 0 900 690 110 1189 1017 172 lntegrated rural developunt 0 0 0 570 120 450 2000 1790 210 6257 5167 1090 Fire L ambulanc station-Br.Day 0 0 0 0 0 0 935 935 0 0 0 0 Subtotal - Central Government 0 0 0 2901 2327 474 11605 10105 1500 19253 16289 2964 - 83 - Page 2 of 2 Table 5.11: DONINICA - PROPOSED NEW PROJECTS, 1994185 - 86/87 (In thousands of East Caribbean dollars) 1983/84 19B4/85 19B5/B6 1986/97 Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Total External Local Rest of Public Sector Caribbean Development Bank 0 0 0 435 435 0 1500 1500 0 2115 2115 0 Industrial estates III 0 0 0 435 435 0 1500 1500 0 2115 2115 0 Trinidad and Tobago 0 0 0 278 278 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agricultural Marketing Board 0 0 0 278 278 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 United Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0 2715 2715 0 2376 2376 0 Banana inputs 0 0 0 0 0 0 2715 2715 0 2376 2376 0 U.S.A.I.D. 0 0 0 0 0 0 3799 3299 500 2141 2141 0 Fond Cole diesel set and Electricity expansion 0 0 0 0 0 0 3799 3299 500 2141 2141 0 Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 1175 981 294 6533 5650 883 Hydro project 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3000 3000 0 Water catcheent 0 0 0 0 0 0 1175 881 294 3533 2650 883 Subtotal - Rest of Public Sector 0 0 0 713 713 0 9189 8395 794 13165 12292 883 TOTAL - NEW PROJECTS 0 0 0 3514 3040 474 20794 18500 2294 32418 28571 3847 : ====:======:.=====mzzc ====== == ==: ==: ==== 232 ::::== :::::: :==::s====:= ==zz Z 2 ====== ==:::: :=--M=: Central Government 0 0 0 2801 2327 474 11605 10105 1500 19253 16289 2964 Rest of Public Sector 0 0 0 713 713 0 9189 8395 794 13165 12282 883 TOTAL 40040 37659 2382 51564 49564 2000 59400 52124 7276 45995 37466 8529 : :=2 ====== ==:=== ===::: :::== =:=== 2zz :===== ====== =::::: ====== :===== ====== = ,::: Central Government 33017 30716 2301 45100 43100 2000 47096 40614 6482 31819 24173 7646 Ongoing 33017 30716 2301 42299 40773 1526 35491 30509 4982 12566 7884 4682 New 0 0 0 2801 2327 474 11605 10105 1500 19253 16289 2964 Rest of Public Sector 7023 6942 81 6464 6464 0 12304 11510 794 14176 13293 883 Ongoing 7023 6942 81 5751 5751 0 3115 3115 0 1011 1011 0 New 0 0 0 713 713 0 9189 8395 794 13165 12282 883 Source: Mission estimates. April, 1995 - 84 - Table 5.12: DOMINICA - SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM BY SECTORS (EC$ '000) 1993/84 1984/85 1985/B6 1986/87 1. Productive sectors 10015 11519 21144 25414 Agric.,lForestry & fishing 6029 B849 19144 22799 Manufacturing and tourism 3986 2670 2000 2615 II. Physical infrastructure 19972 28541 24951 10355 Transport & communications 19697 28092 21152 5214 Power 275 459 3799 5141 III. Other infrastructure 1820 3341 5725 5533 Water supply t sewerage 582 0 1175 3533 Health 332 516 450 0 Education 396 1267 0 0 Housing 510 1558 4100 2000 IV. Other 8233 8163 7580 4693 Administration & security 77 425 1624 0 Other 8156 7738 5956 4693 Total 40040 51564 59400 45995 Central Government 33017 45100 47096 31819 Rest of Public Sector 7023 6464 12304 14176 Sources: Tables 5.10 and 5.11. April, 1985 - 85 - Table 5.13: DONINICA - SUMMARY OF PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM BY SOURCES OF FINANCING (EC$'000) 1983/B4 1984/85 1985/B6 1186/87 Central Government 33017 45100 47096 31B19 External 30716 43100 40614 24173 Local 2301 2000 6482 7646 Rest of Public Sector 7023 6464 12304 14176 External 6942 6464 11510 13293 local 81 0 794 583 Total 40040 51564 59400 45995 External 37658 49564 52124 37466 Local 2382 2000 7276 9529 (As Percentage of Total Investment) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 External 94.1 96.1 97.B 81.5 Local 5.9 3.9 12.2 18.5 Sources: Tables 5.8 and 5.9. April, 1985 - 86 - Table 6.1: DOMINICA - CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL SYSTEN (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) December 31 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1993 Net foreign assets 2.3 4.5 3.0 25.0 5.0 -3.9 5. 5.7 Assets 12.4 19.3 20.3 43.4 25.6 23.6 29.6 26.3 o.w.: ECCB currency holdings 2.4 4.1 3.4 6.2 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 Liabilities 10.1 14.8 17.3 18.4 20.6 27.5 23.8 20.6 o.w. non-resident deposits 7.7 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.6 21.0 19.1 19.8 Net domestic credit 46.4 46.1 58.4 57.7 68.5 87.2 88.6 97.5 Net credit to Central governnent 5.4 5.6 10.7 13.q 16.4 17.1 16.1 13.1 Net credit to rest of public sector 0.6 -1.8 -0.9 0.7 -2.0 -4.5 -7.3 -9.3 Credit to private sector 36.7 43.8 48.1 52.2 61.0 BO.3 92.7 104.9 Unclassified assets 4.0 0.4 2.1 -5.3 -3.4 -5.0 -8.2 -8.0 Net float -0.3 -1.9 -1.6 -3.8 -3.5 -0.7 -4.7 -3.2 R< foreign liabilities 6.3 7.0 6.8 7.8 6.7 9.3 8.9 13.4 Liabilities to private sector 42.4 43.6 54.6 74.9 66.8 74.0 85.5 89.8 Demand deposits 5.0 5.0 11.9 18.3 11.7 13.8 14.2 13.1 Time deposits 19.5 23.9 26.5 11.4 9.7 14.9 23.2 24.5 Savings deposit 13.1 9.2 9.4 36.5 38.7 34.3 36.2 38.7 Capital and reserves 4.8 5.5 6.8 8.7 6.7 11.0 11.9 13.5 Sources: Ministry of Finance; Eastern Caribbean Central Bank; commercial banks; and non-bank financial institutions. October,1984 - 87 - Table 6.2: DOMINICA - COMMERCIAL BANA OPERATIONS (In aillions of East Caribbean dollars) -------------- -------------- ------------- -------------- ------------- -_-_ -------- --_---------- Deceeber 31 June 30 1979 1990 1981 1992 1983 1993 1984 Net foreign assets 21.4 3.4 -5.7 4.7 4.5 5.2 5.1 Assets 39.8 24.0 21.8 26.5 25.1 29.9 31.4 Foreign currency holdings 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.1 Claims on ECCB 24.5 12.0 4.7 10.7 4.2 8.2 11.3 O.W. currency holdings 3.0 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.0 Claims on ECCB area banks 7.9 3.2 2.9 2.9 6.3 6.4 3.4 Claims on banks abroad 5.5 3.9 5.2 7.0 12.8 14.4 15.3 Other 0.7 3.0 7.2 6.6 0.6 0.8 1.3 Liabilities 19.4 20.6 27.5 23.8 20.6 24.7 26.3 Balance due to ECCB 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Balance due to ECCB area banks 4.2 3.0 2.5 1.7 0.0 1.7 3.2 Balance due to banks abroad 3.6 6.0 4.0 3.0 0.8 3.8 3.5 Non-resident deposits 10.6 11.6 21.0 19.1 19.9 19.2 19.6 Demand 1.9 1.3 2.4 2.3 3.7 2.1 2.6 Savings 6.3 7.0 16.4 13.3 13.0 13.8 13.7 Tise 2.4 3.3 2.2 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.3 Net domestic assets 42.3 54.4 66.3 66.4 68.9 71.1 77.2 Net credit to Central government 13.6 16.8 16.5 15.7 12.7 17.8 11.3 Treasury bills 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Debentures 5.1 6.9 7.6 7.7 8.0 10.5 5.0 Loans & advances incl.overdraft 9.1 11. 9.5 10.6 10.6 12.5 11.5 Government deposits (-) 0.0 2.2 1.0 3.0 6.3 5.6 5.6 Net credit to rest of public sector 0.3 -2.4 -4.2 -5.6 -7.1 -11.9 -7.4 Credit 4.8 4.6 9.7 9.3 8.0 4.6 B.6 Deposit (-) 4.5 7.0 13.9 14.9 15.1 16.5 16.0 Net credit to non-bank financial institutions -4.8 -5.0 -0.7 -3.5 -0.2 1.1 -1.1 Credit 0.0 0.2 2.7 0.1 6.2 5.1 5.0 Deposit (-H 4.8 5.2 3.4 3.6 6.4 4.0 6.1 Credit to private sector 37.7 47.4 58.2 67.5 74.4 66.6 76.8 Interbank float 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.5 -2.7 1.5 -0.2 Claims 3.9 4.4 4.6 6.1 7.4 9.1 7.7 Liabilities 3.6 3.7 4.6 5.6 10.1 6.6 7.9 Net unclassified assets -4.8 -3.1 -3.5 -9.2 -8.2 -4.0 -4.2 Assets 10.7 14.3 12.8 12.0 13.8 13.6 21.8 Liabilities 15.5 17.4 16.3 20.2 22.0 17.6 26.0 Liabilities to private sector 63.7 57.8 60.6 71.1 73.4 76.3 82.3 Deaand deposits 18.1 11.4 13.6 13.9 12.6 Time deposits 10.0 8.6 13.6 21.8 23.1 ... ... Savings deposit 35.6 37.8 33.4 35.4 37.7 ... ... Sources: hinistry of Finance; Eastern Caribbean Central Bank; commercial banks; and non-bank financial institutions. October,1984 - 88 - Table 6.3: DONINICA - OPERATIONS OF NONBANK FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS (In sillions of East Caribbean dollars) December 31 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983 Foreign assets 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 ECCB currency holdings 3.2 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.9 Claims Dn commercial banks 0.8 0.9 3.5 3.3 4.7 Liabilities to cosmercial banks 0.1 0.1 3.5 5.0 5.0 Net domestic credit 14.7 13.3 20.9 23.9 28.9 Credit to Central 6overneent 0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 Credit Ito rest of public sector 0.4 0.4 -0.3 -1.7 -2.2 Credit to private sector 14.5 13.6 22.1 25.2 30.5 Unclassilfied assets (net) -0.5 -0.3 -1.5 0.0 0.2 M< foreign liabilities 7.B 6.7 9.3 6.9 13.4 Liabilities to private sector 11.2 q.0 13.4 14.4 16.4 Demand d[eposits 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 Time deposits 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 Savings deposit 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 Capital and reserves 8.7 6.7 11.0 11.9 13.5 Sources; Ministry of Finance; Eastern Caribbean Central Bank; comsercial banks; and non-bank financial institutions. October,1984 - 89 - Table 6.4: DONINICA - DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS l976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 l982 (In sillions of East Caribbean dollars) Total 28.8 25.7 34.0 41.9 54.6 61.5 66.6 Agriculture 6.0 3.6 4.2 12.1 11.0 11.4 10.9 Manufacturing 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.0 4.8 4.3 3.8 Tourism & entertaineent 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.7 3.9 Transport 0.6 0.5 2.3 2.9 5.5 6.7 6.1 Building & construction 5.3 1.2 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.8 3.4 Distributive trades 6.1 5.9 9.4 8.3 10.3 14.5 15.3 Utilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 Personal 4.5 8.0 9.3 9.4 14.7 17.0 20.9 Other 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.6 4.3 2.8 2.2 (In percent of total) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agriculture 20.8 14.0 12.4 28.9 20.1 18.5 16.4 Manufacturing 8.3 9.7 9.1 7.2 8.8 7.0 5.7 Tourist & entertainsent 9.7 10.1 8.8 6.2 4.2 4.4 5.9 Transport 2.1 1.9 6.8 6.9 10.1 10. 9.2 Building & construction 18.4 4.7 3.8 1.9 2.7 2.9 5.1 Distributive trades 21.2 23.0 27.6 19.8 18.9 23.6 23.0 Utilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 Personal 15.6 31.1 27.4 22.4 26.9 27.6 31.4 Other 3.8 5.4 4.1 6.2 7.9 4.6 3.3 Source: Commercial banks. October,1984 - 90 - Table 6.5: DONINICA - INTEREST RATES STRUCTURE (In percent per annum) December 31 1979 1960 1991 1992 1983 I. Commercial Banks Deposits Savings 2.50-3.00 2.50-3.00 2.50-3.00 2.50 2.50-3.00 Time 3 months 3.50-4.00 4.00 4.00-4.50 4.50 4.50-5.00 3-6 months 4.00-4.50 4.00-4.50 4.50-5.50 5.50 5.00-5.50 6-12 months 4.50-5.00 4.50-5.00 5.00-6.00 6.00 5.50-6.00 1-2 years 6.00 a/ 6.00 a/ 6.00 a/ 6.00 a/ 6.00-6.50 over 2 years 6.50 a/ 6.50 a/ 6.50-7.00 a/ 6.50-7.00 a/ 6.50-7.00 a/ Lending Prime rate 8.00-9.50 8.00-8.50 8.00-9.50 9.50 9.50-10.50 Other 9.00-12.00 11.00-12.50 12.00-14.00 9.50-12.00 9.50-15.50 II. Selected Nonbank Financial Intermediaries b/ Deposits Savings 2.50-3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00-5.00 Time 1-2 years 3.50-10.50 3.50-10.50 3.50-10.50 3.50-10.50 5.50-7.00 c/ Credit union shares 3.00 3.00-5.00 3.00-5.00 3.50-10.50 3.00-5.00 Lending (priae) 10.00-11.00 9.00-11.00 10.50-11.00 10.50-11.00 8.50-12.00 a/ For deposits over EC$5,000 interest rates are half a percentage point higher and for deposits of EC$200,000 or more interest rates may be as high as 10 percent. b/ Includes interest rates of Dominica Agricultural Industrial and Development Bank; one credit union; and the Barclays Finance Corporation. c/ Large sums earned up to 10 percent. Sources: Commercial banks; and nonbank financial institutions. October,1984 - 91 - Table 6.6: DOMINICA - EASTERN CARIBBEAN CENTRAL BANK (In millions of East Caribbean dollars) December 31 March 31 1979 1990 1991 1982 1983 3993 1984 Net international reserves 167.4 145.2 148,B 133.9 134.8 153.4 167.1 Assets 210.6 212.3 181.4 133.8 136.1 153.4 168.2 Current assets & money at call 139.3 93.9 B1.5 15.9 12.1 12.7 79.2 Regional notes & coins in process of redemption 5.7 6.2 2.8 3.2 0.6 2.2 0.7 Other securities a/ 65.6 112.2 97.1 114.7 123.4 138.5 88.3 Liabilities -43.2 -67.1 -32.6 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -1.1 Balance due to banks abroad c/ -43.2 -67.1 -32.6 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -1.1 Net position with banks in ECCB -89.2 -61.6 -55.6 -46.3 -50.6 -57.3 -78.4 Assets 8.7 6.5 7.2 11.2 8.3 5.5 2.5 Bankers' balances 6.5 4.2 4.8 8.6 5.4 2.8 0.0 Balances with banks in area 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.5 Liabilities -97.9 -68.1 -62.8 -57.5 -58.9 -62.8 -80.9 Currency: notes and coins -24.0 -26.5 -23.5 -28.4 -29.3 -17.1 -18.9 Dominica 3.0 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.1 Other 21.0 24.1 21.1 25.1 26.2 Deposits -73.9 -41,6 -39.3 -29.1 -29.6 -45.7 -62.0 Demand 7.9 12.9 13.1 17.8 22.9 21.2 30.6 Fixed 66.0 28.7 26.2 11.3 6.7 24.5 31.4 Net domestic assets 13.3 13.9 18,4 24.3 31.0 17.3 25.6 Central government (net) 33.5 40.3 45.9 53.2 56.0 53.8 56.4 Dominica treasury bills 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.9 Other treasury bills 15.9 20.8 24.0 32.1 33.5 DDminica debentures 1.9 19 3.9 3.9 3.9 Other debentures 13.2 15.1 15.5 14.7 14.7 Liabilities to nonsonetary international organizations -0.4 -7.7 -2.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 Net unclassified assets -19.8 -19.7 -25.0 -27.5 -23.8 -35.5 -29.6 Assets 1.9 4.0 3.7 8.5 9.9 6.3 2.2 Liabilities -21.7 -22.7 -28.7 -36.0 -33.7 -41.8 -31.9 Currency in circulation 91.5 97.5 111.6 111.8 115.2 113.4 119,6 In ECCB countries 88.9 94.9 109.0 109.2 112.6 110.I 117.0 Estimated notes & coins issued 112.9 121.4 132.5 137,6 141.9 Minus: commercial bank holdings 24.0 26.5 23.5 29.4 29.3 Notes & coins issued in Dominica 10.1 9.9 10.1 9.8 9.5 Currency holdings by bank 3.0 2.4 2.4 3.3 3.1 Currency in circulation 7.1 7.5 7.7 6.5 6.4 Coins in forser member countries (DCCB coins) cl 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 a/ 1993 includes credit balance with CARICOM Multilateral Clearing Facility (CMCFI. b/ ABROAD meaning outside ECCB area. Includes debit balances with CMCF. c/ BCCB refers to the British Caribbean Currency Board. Source: Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. October,19B4 - 92 - Table 7.1: DOMINICA - PRODUCTION OF SELECTED A6RICULTURAL PRODUCTS …------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Crap Unit 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1963 Bananas long ton 40084 35784 47484 23945 13500 34200 34354 36090 Coconuts (copra) long ton 3570 3865 4004 3830 1839 2022 2291 3563 Liaes short ton 7305 7610 7610 3685 5524 5697 5921 6000 Grapefruit short ton 9091 8572 8969 6512 6875 7465 8169 8036 Oranges short ton 2586 2760 2B98 2104 2104 2146 2706 2807 Dasheen short ton 11039 11607 12478 11229 11295 11491 11784 12073 Tannia short ton 5195 5357 5759 5620 7072 7366 7734 7B66 Yams short ton 2841 3409 3665 3072 4420 4715 4864 4947 Plantains long ton 2310 2700 2710 2028 1200 1320 1397 1596 Sweet potatoes short ton ... ... ... 1392 1572 1540 1535 1556 Cassava long ton ... ... ... 722 751 762 765 773 Cabbage long ton ... ... ... 836 960 1020 963 973 Cucusber long toin ... ... ... 1696 2035 2240 2342 2459 Cocoa long ton 315 660 695 382 382 382 439 443 Coffee long ton ... ... ... 153 146 150 153 157 Bay leaf long ton ... ... ... 20 4 6 16 16 Source: Statistical Division, hinistry of Finance. October,1984 - 93 - Table 7.2: DOMINICA - SELECTED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1976 1977 1979 1979 1990 1991 1982 1983 Laundry soap Volume (tons) 74b 1697 2707 1929 3899 5128 5220 4858 Yalue (EC$'000) 900 2112 3212 2516 7498 10733 11954 10594 Toilet soap Volume (tons) 103 381 699 466 1068 1988 2074 1713 Value (EC$'000) 286 1112 1803 1437 5220 9879 11469 8839 Animal feed/coconut meal Volume (tons) 741 808 772 851 218 217 313 795 Value (EC$'000) 231 235 242 229 72 72 104 210 Copra Volume (tons) 2421 2622 2667 2704 834 732 1600 2673 Value (EC$'000) 1971 2257 2701 3069 988 980 2142 3622 Crude coconut oil Volume ('000 gal.) 184 274 396 428 122 117 257 407 Value (EC$'000) 1104 1884 2788 3203 973 237 2166 4464 Edible coconut oil Yolume ('000 gal.) 175 126 154 99 28 20 150 204 VJalue (EC$'OOO) 1306 1050 1253 845 661 980 1714 2756 Soft drinks Yolume ('000 cases) 212 199 287 240 262 223 197 200 Value (EC$'OOO) 779 839 ... ... ... ... ... 1985 Cigarettes Volume ('000 cartons) ... ... 179 167 149 150 133 Value (ECS'OOO) ... 1134 ... 1566 1780 1579 1600 ... Pipe tobacco Volume ('000 lb.) 15 11 12 10 7 B a ... Value (EC$'000) ... 69 ... 54 47 47 47 ... Preserves Volume ('000 kgs.) 6 7 8 210 336 354 347 Value (EC$'000) 4 ... ... 651 1161 1347 1059 6alvanized sheets Volume (tons) -- -- -- -- -- -- 539 2231 Value (ECS'OOO) a/ -- -- -- -- -- -- 1295 5528 Bareents Value (ECS'OOO) a/ -- -- -- -- -- -- 400 527 a/ Value of exports. Source: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance. Dctober,1994 - 94 - Tible 7.3: DOMINICA - TOURIST STATISTICS Jan.-June 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1991 1982 1983 1984 Total arrivals 23936 31047 35579 28075 24782 22862 22768 28460 13855 Cruise-ship passengers 1908 7500 7635 7770 7377 5456 2362 6112 2033 Day-tour excursionists 4980 3996 6767 4B47 3098 2225 1463 2693 1240 Stayover visitors 17048 19551 21177 15458 14307 15191 18943 19655 10582 Hotels ... ... 6381 5652 7257 7130 8523 8068 4948 Private homes ... ... 6397 6971 2994 4049 4897 5546 2318 Business and other ... ... 8409 2835 4056 4002 5523 6041 3316 Average length of stay (in rumber of nights) a/ Hotels ... ... 5.5 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.1 6.1 ... Private hoses ... ... 14.0 14.7 14.0 14.0 12.0 12.0 Business ... ... 5.5 6.5 5.5 5.5 3.2 3.2 ... Per day/night expenditure (in U.S. dollars) Cruise-ship 9.5 9.5 10.0 12.0 13.8 14.8 16.2 17.0 ... Day-tour ... ... 30.0 33.0 37.0 39.0 40.0 42.0 ... Stayover visitors Hotels - tourist ... ... 20.0 25.0 30.0 32.1 56.8 59.6 ... Hotels - business ... ... 32.0 35.5 40.7 43.6 68.7 72.1 ... Private hoses ... ... 7.3 8.0 9.2 9.8 8.4 8.8 ... (In thousand of U.S. dollars) Total tourist expenditure 2499.6 3042.1 3904.3 2631.5 2925.1 3170.4 4757.6 5129.6 Cruise-ship 18.1 71.3 76.3 93.2 101.8 80.7 38.3 103.9 ... Day-tour 57.2 45.9 81.2 160.0 114.6 86.8 58.5 113.1 Stayover visitors 2424.3 2924.9 3646.B 2378.3 2708.7 3002.9 4660.8 4912.6 .. Hotels ... ... ... 904.3 1415.1 1497.7 2953.0 2933.2 Private hoses 8.. ... ... 919.8 385.6 555.5 493.6 585.7 Business ... ... ... 654.2 907.9 959.7 1214.2 1393.8 (In percent) visitor arrivals by origin b/ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100l0 100.0 United Kingdos 5.3 11.9 11.6 6.8 8.4 3.6 9.4 7.9 9.5 Other europe -- ... ... 32.9 25.7 28.1 17.1 14.2 11.3 OECS countries 4.3 15.7 18.2 7.7 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.4 11 Other CARICOM 6.8 12.6 11.1 9.7 9.0 9.8 10.9 10.5 10.7 United States 7.8 11.6 12.9 10.9 13.4 13.8 18.5 18.6 15 Canada 2.7 11.4 10.3 3.9 4.8 4.5 4.9 4.9 5 Other 73.1 36.9 35.9 29.1 29.3 30.2 28.9 33.5 37.5 a/ Length of stay of cruise-ship passengers and day-tour excursionists is assumed to be one day. b/ Excludes cruise-ship passerigers. Sources: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance; & stiff estimates, October,1984 - 95 - Table 7.4: DONONICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION Total 6enerated Hydroelectric Diesel (In '000 of kwh) (In '000 of kwh) (In percent) (In '000 of kwh) (In perc 1979 12131 8930 73.6 3201 26.4 1980 6701 4012 59.9 2689 40.1 1981 12614 10614 94.1 2000 15.9 1982 15723 14675 93.3 1049 6.7 1983 18225 15265 83.8 2960 16.2 1984 a/ 19498 15123 77.6 4375 22.4 a/ Company projections. Source: Dominica Electricity Services, Ltd. October,19B4 - 96 - lable 7.5: DOMINICA - IMPOR7S OF PETROLEUM PRODUCIS (Value in ECS'000; and volute in liter4 Jan.-June 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 6asoline Value 2053 2359 1741 5130 5287 5569 4409 2518 Voluee 6227 6858 4534 7915 7016 7539 6795 ... Unit value (EC$/ltrl 330 344 384 648 754 739 649 ... Kerosene Value 259 241 80 726 793 647 626 305 Voluse 778 871 233 1116 1033 869 956 ... Unit value (EC$/Itrl 333 277 343 651 768 745 655 ... Diesel Value 647 611 590 2896 2000 1551 1846 1086 Volume 2624 2243 1639 4729 2818 2461 2809 ... Unit value (ECSlItr) 247 272 360 612 710 630 657 ... Other fuel oils a/ Value 2 44 357 1309 1572 1042 1328 2327 Volume 1 172 303 1416 1550 925 1448 ... Unit value (ECS/Itr) 2000 256 1178 924 1014 1126 917 ... Total Value 2961 3255 2768 10061 9652 8809 8209 6236 Yolume 9630 10144 6709 15176 12417 11794 12008 ... a/ Includes Bunker C oil and other fuel oils. Source: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance. October,1984 - 97 - Table 8.1: DOMINICA - CONSUMER PRICE INDEX July Weight 1979 1980 1981 1982 1993 1993 1984 (April 1964 = 100) Average 100.0 398.8 520.6 599.7 615.7 641.2 637.4 644.7 Food 56.9 387.6 522.3 605.0 616.2 613.6 613.2 619.1 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 8.3 335.3 387.9 398.9 434.9 463.8 461.1 471.3 Housing 8.9 366.7 497.9 501.6 539.9 610.5 587.5 659.7 Fuel and light 5.4 345.6 479.5 557.0 590.5 573.3 576.2 564.1 Household & miscellaneous items 4.6 515.7 644.5 747.0 833.9 942.4 933.4 956.4 Clothing and footwear 9.5 448.7 518.9 595.5 634.5 737.3 728.0 750.4 Services 6.4 510.9 636.0 727.4 796.1 854.6 854.4 880.2 End of Period 100.0 463.0 562.1 607.6 632.2 649.1 636.1 650.9 Food 56.9 467.2 582.0 620.5 620.4 619.9 607.2 614.1 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 8.3 352.8 396.2 405.3 460.9 470.2 462.4 473.5 Housing 8.9 436.9 497.8 504.3 579.1 642.7 594.8 659.7 Fuel and light 5.4 388.1 531.0 579.1 601.0 565.0 559.6 568.1 Household & miscellaneous items 4.6 579.1 692.8 804.7 983.4 956.2 950.4 967.0 Clothing and footwear 9.5 491.6 541.2 620.7 647.9 750.4 750.4 750.4 Services 6.4 555.1 652.2 760.2 855.4 855.8 955.8 884.3 (Annual percentage change) Average 19.9 30.5 13.3 4.4 4.1 3.5 1.1 Food 23.4 34.9 15.8 1.9 -0.4 -0.5 1.0 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 7.4 15.7 2.8 9.0 6.6 6.0 2.2 Housing 12.0 33.1 2.8 7.4 13.3 9.0 12.3 Fuel and light 26.9 38.7 16.2 4.2 -1.2 -0.7 -2.1 Household & miscellaneous items 17.7 25.0 15.9 11.6 13.0 11.9 2.5 Clothing and footwear 20.9 15.6 14.8 6.5 16.2 14.7 3.1 Services 13.9 24.5 14.4 9.4 7.3 7.3 3.0 End of Period 34.1 21.4 8.1 4.0 2.7 -2.0 2.3 Food 45.4 24.6 6.6 0.0 -0.2 -1.9 1.1 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 9.2 12.3 2.3 13.7 2.0 -1.7 2.4 Housing 27.3 13.9 1.3 14.6 11.2 -9.0 12.8 Fuel and light 37.0 36.8 9.1 3.9 -6.0 -1.0 1.5 Household & miscellaneous items 21.6 19.6 16.2 9.8 9.2 -0.6 1.7 Clothing and footwear 18.4 12.4 14.7 4.4 15.8 0.0 0.0 Services 21.9 17.5 16.6 12.5 0.0 0.0 3.3 Source: Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance. October,1984 - 98 - Table 8.2: DOMINICA - FUEL PRICES (In East Caribbean dollars per isperial gallon) Gasoline Kerosene Diesel Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail 1979 February 2.63 2.85 1.94 2.08 2.20 2.13 Marcih 2.83 3.06 2.04 2.18 2.31 2.50 April 3.23 3.46 2.04 2.18 2.62 2.81 July 3.30 3.53 2.04 2.18 2.69 2.88 August 3.77 4.00 3.08 3.12 3.21 3.42 1990 Febriuary 2 4.24 4.47 3.08 3.22 3.21 3.42 February 12 4.47 4.70 3.99 4.15 3.93 4.14 February 16 4.52 4.77 3.99 4.13 3.93 4.16 April 4.60 4.85 4.14 4.30 4.05 4.26 August 11 4.85 5.10 4.14 4.30 4.14 4.35 October 7 4.85 5.10 3.91 4.07 4.14 4.35 1981 January 7 5.46 5.71 3.91 4.30 4.14 4.35 March 9 5.76 6.01 3.97 4.13 4.36 4.57 1992 March 15 5.85 6.15 4.10 4.25 4.47 4.74 July 1 5.85 6.15 4.10 4.25 4.31 4.56 September 7 5.65 5.95 4.10 4.25 4.31 4.56 October 18 5.65 5.95 4.10 4.25 4.43 4.68 November 17 5.65 5.95 4.14 4.30 4.43 4.68 1983 March 24 5.22 5.52 4.14 4.30 4.34 4.59 way 5.20 5.50 3.84 4.00 4.15 4.40 June 13 5.70 6.00 3.94 4.00 4.15 4.40 September 9 5.70 6.00 3.84 4.00 4.75 5.00 a/ To obtain the equivalent in U.S. dollars per gallon, these figures should be multiplied by 0.29630. Sources Statistical Division, Ministry of Finance. October,1984 - 99 - Table 8.3: DOMINICA - ELECTRICITY RATES (In East Caribbean cents per kwh unless otherwise indicated) 1979 ------------------------- Jan. - Dec. Jan. Jan.- Apr.- Nov.- ----------------------------------- ----- Mar. Oct. Dec. 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Lighting rate Each kwh 30.0 35.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.3 Minimum monthly charge 150.0 200.0 -- -- -- -- -- 200.0 Dosestic rate Up to 50 kwh 19.0 16.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 28.5 Additional kwh 10.0 16.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 Minious monthly charge 240.0 250.0 -- -- -- -- -- 250.0 Industrial rate Service charge per KVA of installed capacity a/ 300.0 400.0 -- -- -- -- -- 400.0 Additional kwh 10.0 11.0 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 30.0 Commercial rate Service charge per KVA of installed capacity a/ 300.0 400.0 -- -- -- -- -- 400.0 Additional kwh per month: Up to 50 kwh 19.0 22.0 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.3 From 50 to 5000 kwh 15.0 18.0 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.3 Above 5000 kwh 12.0 14.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 36.3 Street lighting 30.0 35.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 37.0 Fuel surcharge b/ (average for the period) -- -- 10.6 13.1 3.6 1.7 3.6 3.2 a/B ased on the KVA ratings of appliances or equipment. b/ Calculated on the basis of the total number of imperial gallons of diesel fuel consumed in all the company's generating stations during the month immediately preceding the month in which meters are read, multiplied by incremental cost of diesel over the base price of EC$S.4066 per imperial gallon and divided by the total kwh sold. Source: Dominica Electricity Services Ltd. October,1984 - 100 - Table 8.4: DOMINICA - BANANA EXPORT PRICES (In East Caribbean dollars unless otherwise indicated) Average f.o.b. Average Price Average Real Price Average 6MP Price a! Price Paid to Growers Paid to Growers b/ Per MT (in L) per lb. per lb. per lb. per lb. 1977 218.6 0.470 0,279 0,146 0.146 1978 239.4 0.566 0.303 0.175 0.162 1979 253.0 0.660 0.33B 0.186 0.144 1980 279.1 0,848 0.455 0.207 0.124 1981 315.1 0.783 0,410 0.163 0.085 1982 380.2 0.764 0.444 0,176 0.088 1983 416.1 0.765 0.470 0.199 0.096 Note: Average price paid to growers per lb. in 1982 and 1983 includes dehanding bonus and cess. a/ green Market price (BMP) is c.i.f. orice, including packaging paid by importers to DBGA. One (1) metric ton (MT) equals 2204 lbs. b/ Deflated by Dominica's consumer price index. Sources: Dominica Banana Growers Association (DBGA); and IMF staff estimates. October, 1984 - 101 - Table 9.1: DOMINICA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED SOURCES AND USES OF RESOURCES (ECS million, in constant 1983 prices) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Agriculture 52.4 54.5 57.2 60.1 63.1 65.6 6B.2 70.3 72.4 73.8 75.3 76.8 78.4 Industry 33.2 36.2 37.3 38.8 40.3 42.3 44.5 46.7 49.0 51.5 54.0 56.7 59.6 Other 90.2 93.0 96.7 100.6 104.6 107.8 110.9 114.3 117.7 121.3 124.9 128.7 132.5 GDP (Factor Cost) 175.8 183.7 191.2 199.5 208.0 215.7 223.6 231.3 239.1 246.6 254.2 262.2 270.5 Indirect taxes less subsidies 34.7 37.2 39.1 41.0 43.1 45.2 47.5 49.9 52.3 55.0 57.7 60.6 63.6 6DP IMarket Prices) 210.5 220.9 230.3 240.5 251.1 260.9 271.1 281.2 291.4 301.6 311.9 322.8 334.1 Resource Gap 44.3 64.6 72.7 77.3 74.0 70.4 56.9 57.6 50.0 58.3 59.6 60.7 59.1 Imports, 6NFS 133.1 151.4 162.5 170.0 169.7 168.9 158.9 162.8 166.6 170.2 174.1 178.0 179.5 Exports, GNFS (Adjusted) 88.8 86.8 89.8 92.7 95.7 98.5 102.0 105.2 108.6 111.9 114.5 117.3 120.4 Resource Availability 254.8 285.5 303.0 317.8 325.1 331.3 326.0 338.8 349.4 359.9 371.5 383.5 393.2 Consumption 196.0 213.9 227.1 237.4 249,1 256.8 261.5 269.4 277.1 284.6 293.1 301.9 308.3 Public 48.9 59.6 67.9 70.4 75.0 73.6 67.6 67.1 66.9 66.8 66.1 65.2 64.0 Private 147.1 154.3 159.2 167.0 174.1 183.2 193.9 202.3 210.2 217.8 227.0 236.7 244.3 Investeent 58.8 71.6 75.9 80.4 76.0 74.5 66.5 69.4 72.4 75.3 78.4 81.6 84.9 Fixed 56.3 71.6 75.9 80.4 76.0 74.5 66.5 69.4 72.4 75.3 78.4 81.6 84.9 Inventory Change 2.5 - - - - - - - - - - Domestic Savings 14.5 7.0 3.2 3.1 2.0 4.1 9.6 11.8 14.4 17,0 18.8 20.9 25.8 Net factor payeents -1.9 -5.7 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 Net factor transfers 23.0 24.5 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.8 29.3 National Savings 35.6 25.8 28.6 28.4 27.1 29,0 34.7 37.3 40.5 43.6 45.9 48.7 54.1 Mlemo Items (in Xl: GDP growth 2.8 4.9 4.2 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 Investment/6DP 27.9 32.4 33.0 33.4 30.3 28.6 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.4 Consumption/GDP 93.1 96.8 98,6 98.7 99,2 98.4 96,5 95.8 95.1 94.4 94.0 93.5 92.3 Domestic Savings/SDP 6.9 3.2 1.4 1.3 0.8 1.6 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.0 6,5 7.7 National Savings/l6P 16.9 11.7 12.4 11.8 10.8 11.1 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.5 14.7 15.1 16.2 Resource gap/SDP (.) 21.0 29.2 31.6 32.1 29.5 27.0 21.0 20.5 19.9 19.3 19.1 18.8 17.7 BOP/6DP (Z) 11.0 20.7 20.6 21.6 19.5 17.4 11.7 11.4 10.9 10.5 10.4 10.2 9.2 Source: Mission estimates. April, 1985 - 102 - Table 9.2: DOMINICA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (US$ aillion) 1983 1984 1985 1966 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Exports, BNFS 32.9 33.0 36.1 40.1 44.5 49.3 54.2 59.1 64.4 70.2 76.0 82.3 89.3 Merchandise 27.8 26.1 28.4 31.2 34.4 37.7 41.1 44.5 48.2 52.1 55.9 59.9 64.4 Non-factor services 5.1 6.9 7.7 8.9 10.1 11.6 13.1 14.6 16.2 18.1 20.1 22.4 24.9 lIeports, 6NFS 49.3 57.7 65.4 73.5 78.9 84.6 84.4 91.4 98.9 106.6 115.5 124.9 133.1 Merchandise 47.1 55.3 62.8 70.6 75.8 81.2 80.7 87.5 94.7 102.4 110.8 119.9 127.8 Non-factor services 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 Resource Balance -16.4 -24.7 -29.3 -33.4 -34.4 -35.3 -30.2 -32.3 -34.5 -36.6 -39.5 -42.6 -43.8 Net factor income -0.7 -2.2 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0,8 Interest payments -0.8 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -3.2 -2.5 -2.8 -"'1 -3.6 -4.0 Interest - IMF -0.8 -1.0 -09 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ECCA profits 1.3 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 Other -0.4 -1.2 -0.3 -0,3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 Net transfers 8.5 9.4 11.1 12.0 12.9 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.6 19.0 20.5 22.2 23.9 Current Account Balance -8.6 -17.5 -19.0 -22.3 -22.4 -22.1 -15,8 -16.7 -17.7 -18.3 -19.8 -21.2 -20.7 Financing 8.6 17.5 19.0 22.3 22.4 22.1 15.8 16.7 17.7 18.3 19,8 21.2 20.7 Grant 4.4 11.5 11.2 9.4 6.3 4.7 4.5 4.4 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.1 1.7 Borrowing (net) 5.1 4.8 6.6 6.8 5.8 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.3 4.0 5.0 6.9 6.6 Disbursement 5.4 5.3 8.3 7.8 7.1 5,9 5.2 4.9 5.4 6.4 7.9 9.8 9.7 Amortization ).3 0.5 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.9 3.1 Other (net) -2.9 1.2 1.2 6.1 10.3 13.0 7.7 9.2 10.6 10.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 SOR allocation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Repurchases -0.7 -1.8 -1.5 -1.3 -1.5 -2.2 -1.9 -1.1 -0.B 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other (private) -0.2 3.0 2.7 7.4 11.8 15.2 9.6 10.3 11.4 10.9 12.1 12.2 12.4 Memo items: Debt service ratio (% of Exports,6NFS) Excluding IMF 3.3 3,9 7.5 5.5 6.5 7.1 6.6 8.5 7.1 7.4 7.9 7.9 8,0 Including IMF 7.9 12.4 14.1 10.7 11.5 12.6 10.7 10,7 8.5 7.4 7.9 7,9 8.0 Source: Mission estimates. April,1985 - 103 - Table 9.3: DOMINICA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED EXPORTS, GNFS (US$ million) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Exports, 6NFS 32.9 32.2 33.5 35.2 36.6 38.4 39.9 41.4 43.2 44.7 46.2 4B.2 49.9 (Constant prices) Bananas 11.2 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.2 Coconut oil 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 Manufactured goods 9.5 9.2 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 Other goods 5.5 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 Total merchandise 27,B 25.6 26.6 27.9 29.0 30.4 31.4 32.6 33.9 34.9 36.0 37.4 3.6 Non-factor services 5.1 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.2 10.8 11.3 Exports, 6NFS 32.9 33.0 36.2 40.2 44.6 49.3 54.3 59.2 64.4 70.2 76.0 82.3 89.4 (Current prices) Bananas 11.2 11.0 11.7 12.5 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 Coconut oil 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 Manufactured goods 9.5 9.5 10.6 12.0 13.6 15.6 17.6 19.6 21.8 24.2 27.0 30.0 33.4 Other goods 5.5 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.6 6.4 7.3 8.1 9.0 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.6 Total merchandise 27.8 26.1 28.4 31.3 34.4 37.7 41.2 44.6 48.2 52.1 55.9 59.9 64.5 Non-factor services 5.1 6.9 7.9 9.9 10.2 11.6 13.1 14.6 16.2 18.1 20.1 22.4 24.9 Browth rates (Xl: Exports, GNFS . -2.2 4.0 5.2 4.1 4.9 3.6 4.0 4.2 3.5 3.4 4.3 3.5 Merchandise exports . -8.0 3.8 5.0 4.1 4.8 3.3 3.9 3.8 3.0 3.2 3.9 3.2 Source: Mission estimates. April, 1995 - 104 - Table 9.4: DOMINICA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED IMPORTS, 6NFS (USS million) 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 imports, 6NFS 49.3 56.0 60.1 63.0 62.9 57.6 56.1 57.9 59.6 61.4 63.1 64.9 66.2 (Constant prices) Food,beverage,tobacco 11.5 13.3 13.7 13.0 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 Other consumer goods 16.9 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 Fuel & lubricants 3.B 6.0 5.7 5.7 5,7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5,8 5,9 5.9 5.9 6.0 Other intermediate goods 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.8 6.2 6.0 6.8 7.7 8.3 9.0 9.8 10.6 11.4 Capital goods 8,6 13.9 17.9 20.1 20.5 15.3 12.8 13.7 14.5 15.4 16.4 17.4 17.6 Total merchandise imports 47.1 53.7 57.8 60.6 60.5 55.2 53.7 55.5 57.2 59.0 60.7 62.5 63,8 Non-factor services 2,2 2,3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 imports, 8NFS 49,3 57.7 65.4 73.5 78.9 77.4 80.1 87.6 95.0 103.6 113.0 123.2 132.7 (Current Prices) Food,beverage,tobacco 11,5 13,9 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.2 19.9 20, 21,6 22.5 Other consumer goods 16.9 14,7 15.9 17.3 18.9 20.7 22.4 23.8 25.4 27.0 28.8 30.7 32.6 Fuel & lubricants 3,8 5.7 5,0 5.0 5.3 5.6 5,9 6,3 6.2 7,0 7.4 7.8 8.3 Other Intermediate goods 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.9 9.6 10.6 12.7 14.6 16.7 19.2 22.0 25.2 Capital goods 8,6 14.4 20.5 26.3 28.5 22.2 19.9 22.5 25.4 28.6 32.2 36.2 38,8 Total merchandise imports 47.1 55.3 62.8 70.6 75.8 74,0 76.4 83.7 90.8 99.2 108.3 11B.2 127.4 Non-factor services 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3,1 3.4 3,7 3. 9 4.2 4.4 4,7 5.0 5.3 Terms of trade ind;ces (1993 100) Export Price 100.0 102,6 107.B 114.1 121.0 128.9 136.2 142.7 149.6 157.1 163.3 169.9 176.9 Import Price 100.0 102.9 109.3 117.5 126.b 136.5 145.3 153.8 162.7 172.1 182.2 192.9 204.0 Terms of Trade 100,0 99,6 98,6 97.1 95.6 94,4 93.7 92.8 92,0 91.3 29.6 88.1 86.7 M U V a/ 100,0 103,5 111.8 121,8 132.8 144.8 155.6 165.0 174.9 185.3 196.5 208.3 220.7 Browth rates (%): Imports,GNFS . 13.6 7,3 4.B -0.2 -8,5 -2.5 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 1.9 Merchandise imports . 14,0 7.6 4.E -0,2 -8.8 -2,6 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 2,0 a! Manufacturing Unit Value, Source: Mission estimates. April, 1985 - 105- Table 9.5: DOMINICA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES (ECS million, constant 1983 prices) Actual 1993 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Current Revenue 111.9 113.7 116.1 119.7 123.7 127,0 130.7 134.5 138,4 143,0 147.2 150.6 154.5 General government 72.3 71.2 73.2 74.0 78.6 81.2 84.5 89,0 93.4 97.9 102.b 106.6 110.9 (Central Government) 63,7 66.9 68.7 70.2 71.5 72.8 74.5 76.6 80.1 84.7 89.3 94,3 9S.8 /Tax revenue/ 54.B 57.5 60.4 63.4 66.6 69.9 73.4 75.1 78.4 81,9 85.5 69,4 93.4 Public Enterprises 39.6 42.5 42.9 45,7 45.1 45.8 46.2 45.5 45.1 45.1 44.5 44.0 43,6 Current Expenditure 109.4 112.7 112.7 115.6 119.3 122,5 125.9 129.1 132.3 136.8 140.8 143.9 147.5 General 6overnment 70.8 70.7 70.7 71.0 75.3 78.0 81.2 85.5 89.7 94.5 99.5 103,4 107.7 (Central Government) 66.1 68.1 68.1 69,7 70,9 72,2 73.9 76.1 79.0 93.7 88.2 92.4 96.7 Public Enterprises 38.6 42.0 42.0 44,6 44.0 44.5 44.7 43.6 42.6 42,3 41,3 40.5 39.8 Current Account Balance 2.5 1.0 3,5 4.1 4,3 4.5 4.8 5,4 6.1 6.2 b.3 6.7 7.0 General Government 1,5 0.5 2.6 3,0 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 (Central government) -2.4 -1.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0,6 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.1 Public Enterprises 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.8 3,2 3.5 3.8 Memo Items: PS current acct/6DP 17.) a/ 1.2 0.5 1,5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 Tax revenue/GDP lXI 26,0 26,0 26.2 26,4 26.5 26.8 27.1 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 Growth rates: Current revenue , 1.6 2.2 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.4 2.6 Current expenditure . 3.0 0.0 2.6 3.3 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.5 3.4 3.0 2,2 2.4 a/ PS Public Sector Source: Mission Estisates. April, 1985 I,RD 19244 D 0, M , . , I C A S . DOMINICA 4AVwAICA 5A5R A e , 5 A SOUTH AM-RICA PORTSMOUTH ( S T . J O H N&\ s 0 '- iz ~~S T. A N D R E W S) T.l 0 St. Jose~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~oak a S T. / |G,I P A gU L 8/ Qgs t - Moin Roods , Mojo, Cities 0 Towns --- Porish B.ondouift 2wers Qss g/ ot '^, , ROSEAUtoS t985 ST. 0 2 4 6 6II UKEj KILOMETERS > JGatRBy MILES Ssre fs S T.\ SEPTEMBER 1985 The World Bank Headquarters European Office Tokyo Office 1818 H Street, N.W. 66, avenue d'Iena Kokusai Building Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. 75116 Paris, France 1-1 Marunouchi 3-chome Telephone: (202) 477-1234 Telephone: (1) Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan Telex: WUI 64145 WORLDBANK 723-54.21 Telephone: (03) 214-5001 RCA 248423 WORLDBK Telex: 842-620628 Telex: 781-26838 Cable Address: INTBAFRAD WASHINGTONDC ISSN 0253-2123/ISBN 0-8213-0627-8