Page 1 Report no. AAA27-MG Developing the Workforce, Shaping the Future: Transformation of Madagascar’s Post-Basic Education Annexes to the Main Report September 3, 2008 Document of the World Bank Page 2 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Annex Table 1. Public and Private Enrollment by Educational Sub-Sector, 1997- 2006................3 Annex Table 2. Schools and Teachers by Cycle..............................................................................4 Annex Table 3. Average Years of Education of the Employed Labor Force by Age Group...........5 Annex Table 4. Earnings Regression – Salary/Wage Earners, All Sectors, 2001and 2005.............6 Annex Table 5. Earnings Regression – Salary/Wage Earners, Industrial Sector, 2005...................8 Annex Table 6. Estimated Stochastic Production Frontier Models, 2004......................................10 Annex Table 7. Public Expenditures on Education by Sub-Sector (Ariary)..................................12 Annex Table 8. Public Expenditures on Education by Sub-Sector (USD)………………………12 Page 3 3 . Annex Table 1. Public and Private Enrollment by Educational Sub-Sector, 1997- 2006 Grade level 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Pre-school * 108.947 42.383 45.387 93.168 142.750 132.504 146.284 148.356 Public 1.090 14.690 8.644 8.405 8.706 Private 50.946 128.060 123.860 137.879 139.648 Private (other) 56.911 Primary 1.892.943 2.018.707 2.208.321 2.307.314 2.409.082 2.856.480 3.366.462 3.597.731 3.698.906 3.835.716 Public 1.468.211 1.571.282 1.708.835 1.808.428 1.892.801 2.274.443 2.715.526 2.916.089 2.983.383 3.102.833 Private 424.732 447.425 499.486 498.886 516.281 582.037 650.936 681.642 715.523 732.883 Junior Secondary 258.934 273.613 287.873 316.390 343.937 356.973 420.592 486.239 581.615 660.448 Public 145.652 151.296 159.504 175.069 193.091 201.357 241.213 281.322 341.441 402.077 Private 113.282 122.317 128.369 141.321 150.846 155.616 179.379 204.917 240.174 258.371 Senior Secondary 61.233 60.597 66.381 66.021 77.655 79.238 88.857 106.595 116.794 127.789 Public 31.217 31.571 35.243 33.716 41.702 42.386 46.664 54.000 56.275 58.712 Private 30.016 29.026 31.138 32.305 35.953 36.852 42.193 52.595 60.519 69..077 TVET ** 8.741 10.617 12.088 13.558 14.590 15.880 15.820 17.497 20.957 19.178 Public Junior Secondary 1.380 2.217 2.046 1.875 2.264 3.261 3.610 4.174 5.105 5.223 Public Senior Secondary 7.361 8.400 10.042 11.683 12.326 12.619 12.210 13.323 15.852 13.955 Estimated private sector 34, 250 Higher Education 16.270 17.887 18.227 31.893 31.905 35.476 42.143 44.948 49.734 57.717 Public institutions 16.270 17.887 18.227 21.599 22.607 26.343 31.675 34.746 39.078 45.491 Non-university institutions 442 485 565 746 794 879 980 Distance education 6.891 6.245 5.935 6.457 5.978 5902 6.885 Private institutions 2.961 2.568 2.661 3.265 3.430 3875 4.361 Notes: * Partial count. ** Data excludes apprentices, 2006-07 Source: MEN, 2008b Page 4 4 Annex Table 2. Schools and Teachers by Cycle 2 001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 Number of public schools Primary Junior Secondary Senior Secondary 15,324 14,436 780 108 15.546 14,637 801 108 16,346 15,420 817 112 16,879 15,890 875 114 18,027 16,917 992 118 Number of private schools Primary Junior Secondary Senior Secondary 4,849 3,859 739 251 5,363 4,340 795 228 5,858 4,740 862 256 6,227 4,946 980 301 6,227 5,301 1,133 332 Number of public teachers Primary Junior Secondary Senior Secondary 46,875 36,181 8,055 2,639 49,583 38,509 8,390 2,684 58,550 47,320 8,910 2,620 60,930 48,870 9,400 2,660 70,445 57,028 10,603 2,814 % Community teachers Primary Junior Secondary Senior Secondary n/a n/a n/a 18 n/a 3 28 11 5 33 12 7 50 20 n/a Number of permanent teachers in private schools Primary Junior Secondary Senior Secondary 22,656 14,555 6,015 2,086 25,197 16,800 6,271 2,126 29,300 16,950 8,950 3,400 32,300 18,270 10,100 3,930 33,991 19,807 10,534 3,650 Source: World Bank, 2007. MEN data. Page 5 5 Annex Table 3. Average Years of Education of the Employed Labor Force by Age Group 2001 2005 Average Standard Deviation Average Standard Deviation 15-19 2.6 2.7 3.2 2.6 20-24 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.1 25-29 4.4 3.7 4.0 3.5 30-34 4.8 4.2 4.3 3.5 35-39 5.2 4.5 4.6 3.7 40-44 4.6 4.5 4.3 3.9 45-49 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.9 50-54 3.6 4.1 3.4 3.5 55-59 3.9 4.3 3.3 3.3 60-64 2.4 3.1 2.6 2.8 Total 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.5 Notes: Calculated from Enquêtes Prioritaires auprès des Ménages 2001 and 2005. Source: Lassibille, 2007. Page 6 6 Annex Table 4. Earnings Regression – Salary/Wage Earners a , All Sectors, 2001and 2005 2001 2005 I II III IV V VI VII VIII Male 0.187** 0.146 0.1587* 0.172* 0.122* 0.136** 0.1349** * 0.146** Experience b 0.027** 0.023** 0.025*** 0.026** 0.037** 0.037** 0.036*** 0.038** Experience ² -0.000 -0.000 -0.001* -0.000 -0.000** -0.000** - 0.000*** -0.000** Years of Study 0.087** - - 0.108** 0.064** - 0.099** Education Level b Primary - 0.222 - - - 0.110 - - Primary Incomplete - 0.068 - - - 0.052 - Primary Completed - 0.499*** - - - 0.279** - Secondary - 0.617** - - - 0.374** - - JSE - 0.582** - - - 0.310*** - SSE - 0.864*** - - - 0.538*** - Higher - 1.054** 1.217*** - - 0.988** 1.043*** - Company Size d (No. Employees) 6-10 0.136* 0.157* 0.124** 0.111 0.178** 0.195** 0.182*** 0.146* 11- 50 0.271** 0.319** 0.272*** 0.248** 0.215** 0.234** 0.209*** 0.169** 50 and over 0.251** 0.277** 0.253*** 0.233** 0.340** 0.380** 0.354*** 0.287** Industry Sector e Public Admin. 0.248* 0.307** 0.2561** 0.135 0.640** 0.756** 0.692*** 0.510** Industry 0.223* 0.194 0.206** 0.195* 0.326** 0.386** 0.366*** 0.287** Energy 0.387** 0.363** 0.386*** 0.353** 0.471** 0.491** 0.448*** 0.361** Construction and Communication 0.408** 0.447** 0.379*** 0.323** 0.459** 0.491** 0.472*** 0.418** Transport 0.555** 0.513** 0.522*** 0.491** 0.525** 0.591** 0.563*** 0.468** Commerce/ Services 0.115 0.112 0.105 0.059 0.117 0.162 0.143* 0.084 Working Hours -0.000 -0.001 -0.001 0.001 0.006** 0.005** 0.005*** 0.006** Permanent Employee f -0.021 -0.050 -0.022 0.004 0.002 -0.024 -.008 0.013 Rural Area g -0.047 -0.063 -0.050 -0.050 -0.235** -0.237** - 0.233*** -0.236** Province h Fianarantsoa -0.326** -0.320** - -0.315** -0.197** -0.175* -0.180** -0.227** Page 7 7 0.305*** Toamasina -0.139 -0.100 -0.092 -0.115 -0.038 -0.012 -0.022 -0.083 Mahajanga 0.105 0.159 0.141 0.125 -0.068 -0.040 -0.056 -0.119 Toliara 0.046 0.066 0.047 0.039 -0.225 -0.215 -.0219 -0.263 Antsiranana 0.365** 0.417** 0.394*** 0.378** 0.266** 0.288** 0.272*** 0.195* Education – Job Qualification Employee Under- Educated - - - 0.202* - - 0.319** Employee Over- Educated - - - -0.321** - - -0.208** Lambda i -0.046 -0.230 -0.142 -0.064 -0.136 -0.141 -0.129 -0.053 Constant 9.894 10.438 10.184 9.801 9.583 9.720 9.694 9.255 R² 0.43 0.40 0.426 0.44 0.45 0.44 0.445 0.46 Number of Observations 2838 2838 2838 2838 3784 3784 3784 3784 Notes to Annex Table 4 Calculated from Enquêtes Prioritaires auprès des Ménages 2001 and 2005. *= significant at 10%; **= significant at 5%; ***= significant at 1%. a/ Salary/wage earners, 15 to 64 years. The specifications are such semi-logarithmic; adjustments are weighted. The models adjust for selection bias using the results of the model of choice of employment sector (see Table A6 of Lassibille, 2007). b/ Difference between the age of the individual (-6) and the number of years of study. c/ Compared to an employee with no education. d/ Compared to an employee of a company with 5 or fewer employees. e/ Compared to an employee of the agricultural and the transport sectors including the communications. f/ Compared to a contractual employee. g/ Compared to an employee of a rural area. h/ Compared to an employee of the province of Antananarivo. i/ Selection term. Source: Lassibille, 2007. Page 8 8 Annex Table 5. Earnings Regression – Salary/Wage Earners a , Industrial Sector, 2005 I II III IV V Male 0.068** 0.068** 0.093*** 0.113*** 0.102*** Experience b 0.013*** 0.012** 0.013*** 0.016*** 0.018*** Experience ² -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 -0.000 Years of study 0.056*** 0.055*** 0.074*** - - Education Level c Primary - - - 0.154** - Secondary - - - 0.320*** - Higher - - - 1.093*** - Education Level (Detailed) Primary - - - - 0.143** Secondary (General + Tech/Voc) - - - - 0.237*** Secondary – Technical - - - - 0.465*** Secondary – Vocational - - - - 0.685*** Higher - - - - 1.090*** Company Size d (No. of Employees) 20-99 Employees 0.046 0.045 0.040 0.029 0.020 99 Employees and over 0.205*** 0.198*** 0.190*** 0.239*** 0.216*** Industry Sector e Food and Drink -0.353** -0.368** -0.288* -0.073 -0.109 Tobacco -0.535*** -0.528*** -0.493*** -0.313* -0.320* Textiles -0.353** -0.371** -0.261* -0.033 -0.054 Clothing -0.341** -0.357** -0.269* -0.087 -0.115 Leather -0.276 -0.284 -0.217 -0.086 -0.132 Wood -0.304* -0.311* -0.220 -0.040 -0.089 Paper and Plastic -0.170 -0.176 -0.118 0.018 -0.060 Printing -0.301* -0.311* -0.227 -0.040 -0.118 Chemistry -0.012 -0.022 0.055 0.186 0.125 Metallurgy -0.317* -0.335** -0.273* -0.105 -0.188 Machine and Equipment -0.109 -0.113 -0.005 0.213 0.117 Furniture -0.135 -0.156 -0.068 0.122 0.049 Construction -0.165 -0.162 -0.154 -0.041 -0.057 Permanent Employee f 0.186*** 0.190*** 0.184*** 0.137** 0.130** Enterprise Type g Private Company 0.411*** 0.417*** 0.328*** 0.132 0.147 Single Proprietorship 0.249** 0.250** 0.162 -0.042 -0.034 Page 9 9 Partnership 0.287* 0.298* 0.206 -0.096 -0.071 Other 0.275*** 0.282*** 0.186* -0.002 0.007 Has Undergone Training h - 0.077** - - - Employee Over-Educated - - -0.426*** - - Constant 11.859 11.865 11.726 12.122 12.186 R² 0.30 0.30 0.34 0.39 0.42 Number of Observations 1628 1628 1628 1672 1672 Notes to Annex Table 5 Estimated from Investment Climate Assessment Survey 2005. *= significant at 10%; **= significant at 5%. ; ***= significant at 1%. a/ People employed. The specifications are such semi-logarithmic; adjustments are made heteroskedasticity. b/ Real experience since entering the workforce. c/ Compared to an employee with no education. The secondary education category includes general, technical and vocational education. d/ Compared to an employee of a company with fewer than 20 employees. e/ Compared to an employee of the mining sector. f/ Compared to a contract employee. g/ Compared to an employee of a public sector company. h/ Compared to an employee who has not attended any training before the survey. Source: Lassibille, 2007. Page 10 1 0 A n n e x T a b l e 6 . E s t i m a t e d S t o c h a s t i c P r o d u c t i o n F r o n t i e r M o d e l s a , 2 0 0 4 I I I I I I I V V A v e r a g e C o e f f . A v e r a g e C o e f f . A v e r a g e C o e f f . A v e r a g e C o e f f . A v e r a g e C o e f f . D e p e n d e n t V a r i a b l e = l o g v a l u e a d d e d L a b o r ( l o g ) 3 . 6 4 0 . 8 8 4 * * * 3 . 6 4 0 . 8 6 9 * * * 3 . 6 3 0 . 9 0 0 * * * 3 . 5 4 1 . 1 2 5 * * * 3 . 5 4 1 . 0 7 9 * * * C a p i t a l ( l o g ) 5 . 7 4 0 . 2 1 2 * * * 5 . 7 4 0 . 2 0 0 * * * 5 . 7 6 0 . 1 3 5 * * * 5 . 5 6 0 . 0 7 5 * 5 . 5 6 0 . 0 8 1 * S e c t o r ( a g r o - i n d u s t r y = 0 ) T e x t i l e s , a p p a r e l - - 0 . 2 7 - 0 . 1 3 1 0 . 2 7 0 . 0 4 8 0 . 2 9 - 0 . 2 6 6 0 . 2 9 - 0 . 3 9 4 W o o d a n d f u r n i t u r e - - 0 . 2 5 - 0 . 3 2 9 * 0 . 2 4 - 0 . 4 7 1 * * 0 . 2 4 - 0 . 4 6 7 * 0 . 2 4 - 0 . 4 6 9 * P a p e r a n d p r i n t i n g - - 0 . 0 2 0 . 2 1 3 0 . 0 2 0 . 3 1 9 0 . 0 1 - 1 . 1 2 8 * 0 . 0 1 - 1 . 0 2 5 * C h e m i c a l s a n d p h a r m a c e u t i c a l s - - 0 . 0 7 0 . 6 5 3 * * 0 . 0 7 0 . 6 4 6 * * 0 . 0 7 0 . 2 5 7 0 . 0 7 0 . 1 4 4 M e t a l l u r g y a n d m a c h i n e r y - - 0 . 0 5 - 0 . 2 6 2 0 . 0 6 - 0 . 4 8 5 ¨ 0 . 0 6 - 0 . 4 2 3 0 . 0 6 - 0 . 4 0 4 N o n - m e t a l a n d p l a s t i c - - 0 . 0 3 - 0 . 3 5 3 0 . 0 4 - 0 . 4 0 9 0 . 0 3 - 0 . 8 4 0 * 0 . 0 3 - 0 . 7 9 9 * O t h e r s - - 0 . 1 3 - 0 . 1 9 2 0 . 1 4 - 0 . 1 9 4 0 . 1 3 - 0 . 3 9 2 0 . 1 3 - 0 . 4 2 6 ^ I n n o v a t i v e c o m p a n y - - - - 0 . 3 2 0 . 6 7 4 * * * 0 . 3 2 0 . 5 9 3 * * * 0 . 3 2 0 . 5 9 2 * * * F e m a l e w o r k f o r c e ( % ) - - - - 3 1 . 9 7 - 0 . 0 0 8 * * 3 1 . 3 - 0 . 0 0 7 * 3 1 . 3 - 0 . 0 0 6 ^ E d u c a t i o n l e v e l o f e m p l o y e e s ( y e a r s ) - - - - - - 8 . 4 4 3 0 . 0 8 8 * 8 . 4 4 0 . 0 8 2 * Page 11 1 1 P r o v i d e s i n t e r n a l t r a i n i n g 0 . 3 1 0 . 3 3 1 * * C o n s t a n t - 2 . 1 3 7 - 2 . 3 8 4 - 2 . 6 7 8 - 1 . 5 6 3 - 1 . 6 9 4 L n s 2 v - - 0 . 1 6 1 * - - 0 . 2 4 3 * * - - 0 . 3 7 4 * * * - - 0 . 4 4 1 - - 0 . 5 0 1 L n s 2 u - - 1 . 0 4 5 * * * - - 0 . 9 6 3 * * * - - 0 . 9 2 8 * * * - - 0 . 9 3 0 - - 0 . 8 9 0 W a l d c h i ² - 2 7 4 . 7 2 * * * - 3 0 7 . 4 4 * * * - 3 6 2 . 9 1 * * * - 3 3 2 . 3 6 * * * - 3 4 9 . 2 3 * * * N u m b e r o f o b s e r v a t i o n s 1 5 2 - 1 5 2 - 1 5 0 - 1 1 7 - 1 1 7 - N o t e s : * * * = s i g n i f i c a n t a t 1 % . ; * * = s i g n i f i c a n t a t 5 % ; * = s i g n i f i c a n t a t 1 0 % ; ^ = s i g n i f i c a n t a t 2 0 % a / S t o c h a s t i c p r o d u c t i o n f u n c t i o n w i t h s e m i - n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n a n d h e t e r o s c e d a s t i c v a r i a n c e ( v a r i a n c e d e p e n d i n g o n t h e v o l u m e o f s a l e s ) S o u r c e : L a s s i b i l l e , 2 0 0 8 , u s i n g a n I C A s u r v e y d a t a . Page 12 - 12 - Annex Table 7. Public Expenditures on Education by Sub-Sector (Ariary) (In Ariary millions) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Recurrent Expenditure Pre-school - - - - - 624 Primary 65336 70985 88918 122271 129472 147623 JSE 18242 28275 24632 37389 40009 46643 SSE 9838 11415 11403 18089 19379 19122 TVET 4331 4510 7970 9137 8123 10187 Higher 21324 19576 26285 35000 52607 52833 Administration 17168 21737 37773 43078 29035 63895 Total 136239 156499 196981 264964 285391 340927 Capital Expenditure Pre-school - - - - - 1868 Primary 3975 7277 47922 100298 98040 106010 JSE 399 836 2250 3586 379 1796 SSE 907 614 0 4125 2099 4832 TVET 727 668 763 1168 98 493 Higher 8300 14383 5608 14243 7892 6270 Administration 12654 25713 12689 0 753 1427 Total 26961 49509 69232 123420 109261 122696 Total Expenditure Pre-school - - - - - 2492 Primary 69311 78262 136840 222569 227512 253633 JSE 18641 29111 26882 40975 40388 48439 SSE 10745 12029 11403 22214 21478 23954 TVET 5058 5178 8733 10305 8222 10680 Higher 29624 33959 31893 49243 60498 59103 Administration 29822 47467 50462 43078 29788 65322 Total 163200 206007 266213 388384 387886 463623 Notes: 1. Executed budgets (commitment basis.) 2. 2007 data are provisional. 3. Higher education includes scientific research. Sources: 1. For 2002-2005, MEN, 2008b. Rapport d’Etat du Système Educatif National Malgache . 2. For 2006 and 2007, MEN. 2008a. Mise en œuvre du plan Éducation Pour Tous- Bilan annuel 2007. Annex 1. 3. Exchange rates from World Bank Global Development Finance online database. Page 13 - 13 - Annex Table 8. Public Expenditures on Education by Sub-Sector (USD) ( In USD millions) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Recurrent Expenditure Pre-school - - - - - 0.3 Primary 47.8 57.3 47.6 61.0 60.4 78.8 JSE 13.4 22.8 13.2 18.7 18.7 24.9 SSE 7.2 9.2 6.1 9.0 9.0 10.2 TVET 3.2 3.6 4.3 4.6 3.8 5.4 Higher 15.6 15.8 14.1 17.5 27.7 28.2 Administration 12.6 17.6 20.2 21.5 13.6 34.1 Total 99.7 126.4 105.4 132.3 133.2 181.9 Capital Expenditure Pre-school - - - - - 1.0 Primary 2.9 5.9 25.6 50.1 45.8 56.6 JSE 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 0.2 1.0 SSE 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.1 1.0 2.6 TVET 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.3 Higher 6.1 11.6 3.0 7.1 3.7 3.3 Administration 9.3 20.8 6.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 Total 19.7 40.0 37.0 61.6 51.0 65.5 Total Expenditure Pre-school - - - - - 1.3 Primary 50.7 63.2 73.2 111.1 106.2 135.3 JSE 13.6 23.5 14.4 20.5 18.9 25.8 SSE 7.9 9.7 6.1 11.1 10.0 12.8 TVET 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.1 3.8 5.7 Higher 21.7 27.4 17.1 24.6 28.2 31.5 Administration 21.8 38.3 27.0 21.5 13.9 34.9 Total 119.5 166.4 142.4 193.9 181.1 247.4 Notes: 1. Executed budgets (commitment basis.) 2. 2007 data are provisional. 3. Higher education includes scientific research. Sources: 1. For 2002-2005, MEN, 2008b. Rapport d’Etat du Système Educatif National Malgache . 2. For 2006 and 2007, MEN. 2008a. Mise en œuvre du plan Éducation Pour Tous- Bilan annuel 2007. Annex 1. 3. Exchange rates from World Bank Global Development Finance online database.